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Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it's bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

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2164 comments

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poroti
Guest

charlton

[I can’t recall whether is was an off the cuff remark but the dry-ice falls on foot line cut to the bone in my view.]
It was an off the cuff remark and yes it really did cut through in a way even the flattest of flat earthers could see.

dave
Guest

Mini Flash Crash Following CDU Statement Eurozone Leaders Have Excluded Boosting Volume Of EFSF Sends ES Down 30 Points

After soaring by over a hundred points, the DJIA subsequently plunged in a flash crash type move after Reuters carried headlines saying that the CDU budget expert said that the Eurozone leaders have clearly excluded boosting the volume of the EFSF (and the plunge has nothing to do with any ridiculous rumor of an S&P downgrade – the S&P would be sent into exile if it dared to defy Obama at this point in his debt ceiling hike victory lap).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mini-flash-crash-following-cdu-statement-eurozone-leaders-have-excluded-boosting-volume-efsf-se

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

oops forgot quotes.
Frank,

and you too can end up like this:,

No way.
I have qualifications, I studied for hard for during my morning break to pass that test and as soon as I send the $14.95 to East Bumcrack Cyber College of Organic Therapies and Wood Carving I can download my certificate. If I pay $19.95 I can even print it in any colour I like and I think that is what I will do, in orange.

I can’t charge for my services until I print out my certificate, and anyway, the printer is out of paper, so PB is getting free sample of my skills.

Don’t look a gift-dragon in the mouth.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Frank,
No way.
and you too can end up like this:,

I have qualifications, I studied for hard for during my morning break to pass that test and as soon as I send the $14.95 to East Bumcrack Cyber College of Organic Therapies and Wood Carving I can download my certificate. If I pay $19.95 I can even print it in any colour I like and I think that is what I will do, in orange.

I can’t charge for my services until I print out my certificate, and anyway, the printer is out of paper, so PB is getting free sample of my skills.

Don’t look a gift-dragon in the mouth.

dave
Guest

charlton
Posted Saturday, August 6, 2011 at 12:22 am | Permalink

Just feeling I had buy the tone of some of your posts tonight,

I have *feelings* about the tone of your posts on an ongoing basis.

dave
Guest

The meme is slowly changing –

Hit by the debt boomerang

Peter Hartcher

It remains to be seen whether this will be the GFC mark II but the reality is Australia is well placed to cope.

…At its worst point, Australia’s cumulative federal net debt is blowing out to a projected $107 billion, or 7 per cent of GDP, in 2011-12.

This is remarkably modest by international comparison. The US economist David Hale observed: “Most other G-20 governments are deeply envious of Australia’s fiscal situation.”

And Australia’s banks are sound and profitable. None of this happened by accident. Australia’s politics worked in creating the good policy that has made Australia a standout economy in the world. The Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello governments collectively spent 23 years reforming the economy, a bipartisan project of opening it to the world, making it more competitive, improving its systems and institutions. Why didn’t any Australian banks collapse? Two central reasons are that Keating imposed the Four Pillars policy, and Costello created the new prudential regulator, APRA.

If the current financial fears turn into GFC mark II, Australia has tremendous firepower to bring to bear on any slump. With official interest rates at 4.75 per cent, the Reserve Bank has lots of scope to cut rates to stimulate growth. And with the federal government in healthy fiscal shape, the government can use its spending power to do the same. Why? Because the central bank and the government have been repairing their policy armoury in the past couple of years.

Today’s financial tremor should shake the Gillard government and the Abbott opposition into a heightened state of alert. Crisis can strike at any moment. Our politicians need to run responsible politics so that the country has good policy for when it is most needed. Both sides need to put populism aside in the national interest.

The Gillard government needs to press ahead with a serious reform agenda and look to new ways of consolidating the federal budget. And the Abbott opposition needs to stop scaring the pants off the public.

The scaremongering over the carbon tax has become so reckless that even the Reserve Bank governor alluded to it obliquely last week, referring to the “bitter” political debate as a factor damaging confidence in the economy. Politics is sometimes just silly. But days like yesterday remind us that it is also deeply serious.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/hit-by-the-debt-boomerang-20110805-1ifh5.html#ixzz1UAFBlCzA

charlton
Guest

dave

[charlton

So why don’t you play along for a while?

Who says I’m not ?]

Just feeling I had buy the tone of some of your posts tonight, unless I’m mixing you up with some else which is quite possible.

Anyway, I’m doing a Samuel Pepys & I wish you well.

Frank Calabrese
Guest
Jake
Guest

[Let me make you a cup of chamomile tea.]

You’re the best Puff,

And a sincere ‘Goodnight’ to you

And to all

Frank Calabrese
Guest

[Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Posted Saturday, August 6, 2011 at 12:14 am | Permalink

And Glen/Thomas/John,
You can have the couch over there. Just relax back and watch the pocket-watch swing to and fro, to and fro, to and fro…
]

and you too can end up like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fv5kYpJVJos

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

And Glen/Thomas/John,
You can have the couch over there. Just relax back and watch the pocket-watch swing to and fro, to and fro, to and fro…

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Drake,
The Bludgers will always be here for you, no matter how arduous the road to wellness. It will be a tough fight, but remember, you are worth it.

Let me make you a cup of chamomile tea.

dave
Guest

charlton
Posted Saturday, August 6, 2011 at 12:09 am | Permalink

So why don’t you play along for a while?

Who says I’m not ?

charlton
Guest

dave @ 2129:

[charlton

What’s going on in the Glen, Winston, Dewey & Gorton household?

Discussing their *favourite colours* and star signs ?]

It is true that there’s a fair bit of banter tonight.

I’ve been accused by some of not have sense of humour but even I’m tired of being serious after a day of being fairly serious, although that might be a moot point for some.

So why don’t you play along for a while?

Jake
Guest

[Don’t whatever you do feel guilty about it.

It’s best to get these sort of things out in the open.

Talking about a problem is a way of solving it.]

😆

Thanks for the support guys. With your help, I’m sure I’ll find a way through.

dave
Guest

WASHINGTON—After months of heated negotiations and failed attempts to achieve any kind of consensus, President Obama turned 50 years old Thursday, drawing strong criticism from Republicans in Congress.

🙂

MickGCollins
Guest

cught = caught

charlton
Guest

drake @ 2132:

[Frank, Gus, Scarps, Charlton and Dave,

I’ve got a confession to make.

I don’t think I’ve ever told anyone this before, and it’s not an easy thing to say.

So here goes…

I find Glen highly amusing. I don’t know why, I just do.]

Don’t whatever you do feel guilty about it.

It’s best to get these sort of things out in the open.

Talking about a problem is a way of solving it.

Jake
Guest

And here I was thinking Obama gave a stuff about his country…

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