GhostWhoVotes relates that the first Victorian state Newspoll since the November state election has the Baillieu government enjoying a fairly typical honeymoon bounce, up from 51.6-48.4 at the election to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote of 28 per cent (36.2 per cent at the election) offers the party new cause for woe: they have now had results in the twenties federally and in all five states covered by Newspoll. The Coalition is on 48 per cent, compared with 44.8 per cent at the election. Ted Baillieu’s personal ratings (52 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval) and lead as preferred premier 57-16) are about what you expect from a new Premier facing a new Opposition Leader. However, Daniel Andrews has recorded a below-par debut of 27 per cent approval and 34 per cent disapproval. The polling was conducted throughout July and August from a sample of 1137, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

UPDATE: I’ve reviewed the Newspoll archives to compare Ted Baillieu’s Newspoll debut with other first performances following election victories (no pedantry about Rob Borbidge please). In this context, Baillieu’s numbers don’t look so flash. He sits at the bottom of an fairly even spread from plus 54 at the top to Baillieu’s plus 23. Beneath that are the outliers of Jeff Kennett in 1992 and Richard Court in 1993: two conspicuous examples of elections being lost by the government rather than won by the opposition. Queensland Labor seems to dominate the top of the list, if you want to make something of that. Results are shown as approval-disapproval-don’t know (net approval).

Wayne Goss: 74-20-6 (+54)
Kevin Rudd: 59-11-30 (+48)
Peter Beattie: 64-18-18 (+46)
Mike Rann: 60-15-25 (+45)
Nick Greiner: 56-18-26 (+38)
Colin Barnett: 56-23-21 (+33)
Rob Borbidge: 46-13-41 (+33)
John Howard: 45-12-43 (+33)
Bob Carr: 57-28-15 (+29)
Geoff Gallop: 51-23-26 (+28)
Dean Brown: 47-21-32 (+26)
Ted Baillieu: 52-29-19 (+23)
Jeff Kennett: 41-44-15 (-3)
Richard Court: 32-45-23 (-13)

I’ve also located results for Opposition Leaders who have taken over after election defeats (not immediately after necessarily, but in the early part of the term), which has Andrews performing slightly worse:

Kim Beazley: 39-15-46 (+24)
Ian Taylor: 35-16-49 (+19)
Denis Napthine: 31-14-55 (+17)
Brendan Nelson: 36-19-45 (+17)
Mike Rann: 36-19-45 (+17)
Bob Carr: 29-20-51 (+9)
Colin Barnett: 35-28-37 (+7)
Eric Ripper: 35-34-31 (+1)
Daniel Andrews: 27-34-39 (-7)
Jim Kennan: 26-39-35 (-13)

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