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Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon ta

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering a sample of 930 from last weekend only (so before the passage of the carbon tax and the government’s new policy on asylum seekers), records a sharp move to Labor: the Coalition’s lead on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure is down to 52.5-47.5 from 57-43 at the last poll, which covered the weekends of September 24-25 and October 1-2. Labor has actually drawn level on the two-party measure that allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election – the measure favoured by all other pollsters – after trailing 53.5-46.5 last time. Labor’s primary vote is up three point to 38.5 per cent and the Coalition is down three to 43.5 per cent with the Greens up a point to 11 per cent, which are all very similar to the results at last year’s election. On all measures this is Labor’s best result since March. Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences on the respondent-allocated measure is 50 per cent compared with 42 per cent last time, but still very different from the 65.7 per cent at the election, hence the ongoing difference between the two Morgan two-party preferred measures. Since the poll was conducted at the same time as the most recent Newspoll and Essential Research polls, neither of which showed any change, a considerable measure of caution is advised.

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1993 comments

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my say
Guest

Beblaney

They will have to get over, hope u have,2/3. To. Bad

There aremore females. In. Aust, than males,

I am concerned u even ask the qustion

my say
Guest

Beblaney

They will have to get over, hope u have,2/3. To. Bad

There aremore females. In. Aust, than males,

I am concerned u even ask the qustion

deblonay
Guest
deblonay
Guest

Poll shows men against Julia 2/3
______________________http://www.theage.com.au/national/men-say-no-to-pm-in-droves-20111017-1ltev.html

deblonay
Guest

Men say No the Julia 2/1 against
_________________________
A new poll says that Julia Gillard is disliked by almost 2/3 of male voters

What is to be done ?

Gweneth
Guest

http://www.watoday.com.au/national/no-interest-loans-for-fridges-washing-machines-20111016-1lr5u.html

And when more stories of this nature appear it will reinforce the fact that reducing energy costs could be a more than just good for the environment but good for the family budget too…

Utopia
Guest

[zoidlord
Posted Monday, October 17, 2011 at 12:09 am | Permalink
@jv/1972,

It’s still a trend as in, not at the original position, also, those Pollytics graphics are not updated with the last few weeks, they were posted on September 28.]

True, but the pollytrend has been around 57:43 since Aug so a 57, 57 and 58 from this round aint gonna change it much.

If you are saying we are trundling around the bottom of a dry creek then I am with you (having said that at least a month ago I can’t argue with that I guess!) 🙂

DavidWH
Guest

Mod Lib based on the published polling the Coalition hit their highest polling late August early September and since then they have lost small ground in each subsequent poll. Yes it is within the margin of error however it does point to them having peaked at least for now. however I think it’s to early to call a trend back to Labor.

jaundiced view
Guest

zoidlord
My expressed view is that 26/27 PV must be about as low as it can go. You get down among only the simian grunters after that. It got a bit lower in NSW, but that was exceptional.

Gweneth
Guest

Mod Lib when I talked about peak Abbott it is not about the polls – the polls will follow and it will take time. We HAVE passed peak Abbott and it was months ago. We have seen his best – there are no other tricks up his sleeve. He is tying himself in knots and driving his party into a political miasma. Most journalists don’t even pretend anymore that he is actually a viable Prime Minister. They know he can never be PM. You know that too. If he can’t deliver on Carbon, NBN or MRRT then he is no longer useful. In fact the polls now are – as I have said before – like reading chicken entrails.

People don’t like change and they are confused by the carbon pricing but they are also concerned about the environment. And the Tea Party tactics are not designed for a country with compulsory voting. And Barry O’Farrell, it seems, is dumb enough to remind every NSW voter what will happen under a Coalition government. A week is a long time in politics and two years is another century.

I don’t expect a change in the polls to change significantly until around next May actually. I am happy that we don’t seem to be getting worse of course.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Leroy,

As predicted.

Leroy Lynch
Guest
zoidlord
Guest

@jv/1972,

It’s still a trend as in, not at the original position, also, those Pollytics graphics are not updated with the last few weeks, they were posted on September 28.

Which is nearly over 2 weeks ago.

The trend might not be up in you’re terms, but it’s certainty not down either.

So again, Where is the “How low can you go” attitude from a few weeks ago?

Leroy Lynch
Guest
Utopia
Guest

Nielson that is…

mari
Guest

Supposedly on Twitter GWW Nielsen 57/43 Coalition ALP up i Coaltiion down 1

Utopia
Guest

Leroy: looks like Ghost has just confirmed them

geoffrey
Guest

disgraceful figures for a government

good we have the media as scapegoat

Leroy Lynch
Guest

Maybe Nielson won’t come out today, can’t see anything yet on The Age or SMH. Would explain why Ghost posted it “unconfirmed”, held over to Tuesday. Or perhaps just running behind in putting it together for today. Could be either (that’s my Grattan moment).

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