The Baillieu government’s second Newspoll shows a slight narrowing of its two-party preferred lead from 57-43 to 55-45, with Labor up two on the primary vote to 30 per cent, the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens steady on 15 per cent. Baillieu’s personal ratings are unchanged, with 52 per cent approval and 29 per cent disapproval. Daniel Andrews is up two on approval to 29 per cent and down one on disapproval to 33 per cent, and he has made up a small amount of ground on preferred premier, up three to 19 per cent with Baillieu down one to 56 per cent.

UPDATE: Stephen Luntz in comments with a point I was too lazy to make myself:

I never place much reliance on a single poll, but if I was to take this one as gospel I’d say it’s bad for the Liberals. It’s not just that they are way behind where Bracks was in 2000, it’s also that this poll was taken over two months, and the bad news for them was at the end of that period. It’s easy to imagine they sailed on at the level of the last poll (57% 2pp) until the Weston/Tilley/Overland stuff hit the media, at which point they dropped down to something like 52% to give this overall outcome.

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