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Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vo

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GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.

UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.

UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:

However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.

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4584 comments

4,584 thoughts on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

  1. madcyril

    [
    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 31 (+1) L/NP 44 (-4) GRN 13 (+3) #auspol
    3 minutes ago
    ]

  2. george

    Well, there you have it

  3. bemused

    Well that may cause some introspection in certain quarters. 😀

  4. bemused

    And with that I shall go to bed.

    Goodnight all.

  5. madcyril

    So 54 – 46 seems to be about the average for the end of the year?

  6. madcyril

    Shanahan’s article

    [
    Newspoll shows Tony Abbott’s support at lowest level as leader

    TONY Abbott’s personal voter support has dropped to its lowest level since he became Opposition Leader two years ago and Julia Gillard and her government are at their highest standing in six months.

    As the parliamentary and political year draws to a close with the end of the ALP national conference, voter satisfaction with the Leader of the Opposition has fallen to its lowest level since he took over from Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader in December 2009 and Ms Gillard has extended her lead over him as preferred prime minister
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-support-at-lowest-level-as-leader/story-fn59niix-1226213680136

  7. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Dio
    I tried turning them from base 4 to base 10 but that hasn’t helped.
    The visual pattern does not seem to hold any clues.

  8. Diogenes

    Shanahan sounds peeved. Lots of questions for the Libs over summer.

  9. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    i know george got it but I am not looking at his answer.

  10. george

    Puff, it’s a pattern in describing (in numbers) what you see:

    13 is ONE 1, and ONE THREE – so in numbers: 1113
    1113 is THREE 1’s and ONE 3 – so in numbers: 3113
    3113 is ONE 3, TWO 1’s and ONE 3 – so in numbers: 132113
    etc

  11. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    i would never have got that!

  12. Diogenes

    Puffy

    Evidently kids get it quite easily but adults find it very difficult.

  13. george

    [i would never have got that!]

    I find if you read out the numbers out loud, that sometimes prompts the answer. Initially I was thinking an addition/minus combination, but then when I read out loud “one one one three” I thought, “oh, that’s describing the previous set of numbers”

  14. george

    [Evidently kids get it quite easily but adults find it very difficult.]

    Diogs, everyone keeps telling me I’m still a kid….

  15. William Bowe

    Tony Abbott’s worst net approval rating yet (minus 24); Gillard’s net approval rating (minus 20) better than Abbott’s for the first time since the start of April; Gillard’s approval rating likewise the highest since the start of April.

  16. Carey Moore

    Woo! Gillard now seen as slightly less bad than Abbott!

  17. rishane

    Progress! And makes it a little harder to massage the usual BAD POLL stories over the summer. Though I’m sure our friends in the punditry will try their best, unless they really want Abbott gone. 😉

  18. imacca

    Happy with this. Now, we will have to have an even stronger ramping up of the Ruddstoration wont we??

  19. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    dIO might know this one,
    George, I will tell you if you are still a kid or not.
    What do you see inside this bottle?
    http://members.multimania.nl/amazingart/E/artist5.html

  20. Tom the first and best

    17

    She is quite a bit better than Abbott but is still no Bob Brown.

  21. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    The first one on the list and just enlarge it without reading the text.

  22. george

    Puff, I see nudity everywhere!

  23. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    George,
    You norty PBer, if you were a kid it would be a jar of dolphins!

  24. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    George,
    Now go back and find the dolphins.

  25. george

    [You norty PBer, if you were a kid it would be a jar of dolphins!]

    🙂

  26. george

    [Now go back and find the dolphins.]

    but… they’re also nude!!! Am I doubly norty?

  27. Carey Moore

    Of course, my post in 17 was just a bit of cheekiness. This is an ok result considering the kind of year they’ve had.

    Just a couple of months ago, Gillard was on borrowed time. Now she probably has a bit more breathing room (but a lot of work to go).

    Abbott, OTOH, even Dennis is spinning against you, mate. Australia doesn’t like you. Your support is that of middle voter protest. Even your party ranks are getting weary of you and your tactics. It is now you who is heading down the terminal road. Especially if the polls narrow further.

  28. madcyril

    Phil Coorey apparently has the sealed section of the post election review by Labor

    [
    ALP post-mortem damns Rudd

    A SECRET Labor Party report has criticised the government led by Kevin Rudd as lacking purpose and being driven by spin and implies that the former prime minister or his supporters were behind the leaks that almost destroyed Julia Gillard’s election campaign.

    It says the leakers ”should be condemned by the party”.

    The report is the so-called sealed section of the 2010 election review conducted by party elders John Faulkner, Steve Bracks and Bob Carr and was never meant to be made public.

    Obtained by the Herald, the report’s findings will inflame tensions between Mr Rudd and Julia Gillard, which were on display throughout the three-day ALP national conference in Sydney which finished yesterday.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/alp-postmortem-damns-rudd-20111204-1odj8.html#ixzz1fZcHytHL

  29. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    George,
    There is no hope for you. 😆

  30. William Bowe

    [Phil Coorey apparently has the sealed section of the post election review by Labor]

    Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”.

  31. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    madcyril,
    Labor must be doing ok in the latest poll then.

  32. scorpio

    http://members.multimania.nl/amazingart/E/artist5.html

    I’m afraid I am a lost cause. Even turning it upside down & inside out I can’t see any dolphins.

    Nudies, yes! 😉

  33. george

    [There is no hope for you]

    I thought as much Puffy 😆

  34. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    scorps,
    sigh.

  35. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    You know you want me to say it. Have another look. The lady’s ‘interesting’ bit is a dolphin tail. Now have good look, I know its ahem tough, but this is research after all. There are nine dolphins.

  36. Carey Moore

    [Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”.]

    Hacking into NORAD’s computer and simulating a nuclear attack?

  37. scorpio

    Puff, the Magic Dragon,

    [scorps,
    sigh. ]

    Yeah, I know, a total lost cause. 😉

    But I foundm if I turn it upside down & close one eye (the good one) I can actually see both the dolphins & the nudies! 😉

    Do I get a bonus for that! lol

  38. madcyril

    [
    Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”.
    ]

    I can just see senior party officials breaking out their Tabletop wargaming equipment and running some simulations!

  39. scorpio

    Puff,

    [I know its ahem tough, but this is research after all. There are nine dolphins. ]

    Maybe I might make a good research subject for your Phd! 😉

  40. scorpio

    [Apparently, policy problems might have been avoided if they’d been “war-gamed” by “party officials”. ]

    I think the electors of Lindsay have suffered enough by now! 😉

  41. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    While you computer geeks and engineering bods were learning to crunch numbers, this is what the psych students were up to.

  42. Carey Moore

    My problem with this report is it pretty much says what we already know but the article chooses to highlight the fact that a supporter of Rudd was responsible for the leaks (no shit, Sherlock) and imply that this top secret document is about condemning Rudd.

    What it’s really about is how the government manages itself in terms of public perception and confidence in policy.

  43. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Scorps.
    Let’s just say you’re not as hopeless as George.

  44. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    So the ALP is going to get a copy of World of Warcraft?

  45. zoidlord

    And so the media has fascination with Rudd once again re: SMH.

  46. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Carey,
    😆 Maybe the PM was asking Obie for the password.

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Carey,
    Abbott is a fart dissipating.

  48. scorpio

    Carey Moore,

    [My problem with this report is it pretty much says what we already know but the article chooses to highlight the fact that a supporter of Rudd was responsible for the leaks (no shit, Sherlock) and imply that this top secret document is about condemning Rudd. ]

    Once BW & Fess get to hear of this it might be advisable to find something else to do for a couple of days! 😉

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