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Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

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1830 comments

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swamprat
Guest

“market forces” = let the rich and powerful decide

so 18th century and so 21st century ALP

Frank Calabrese
Guest

Good Crop my arsk, we lost 3/4 of our crop due to Down Mildew caused by the early heat and Rain in December.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-12/wine-harvest-gets-underway/3769648?section=wa

victoria
Guest

[Gordon Graham
@gordongraham
car industry assistance and the MDB are splitting the Coalition right now and we’re only 12 days into the year … more to come #auspol]

victoria
Guest

Oops Romney

victoria
Guest

I like this comment on the doco re Romne

[Newt told him to play nice while in Iowa. Now its
M-utually
A-ssured
D-estructi on]

Leroy Lynch
Guest

http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/01/12/media-briefs-tv-boss-quits-afr-closes-mis-syrian-journo-death/

Crikey’s media briefs

[Thursday, 12 January 2012
TV boss quits ā€¦ AFR closes MIS ā€¦ Syrian journo death ā€¦]

ruawake
Guest

[He says the price of iron ore has fallen around 30 per cent since May 2010, when the figures were calculated.]

What about the cost of Thermal Coal? Oh it increased.

victoria
Guest

SK

I believe mid Feb?

victoria
Guest

Jason Linkins at Huffington post provides an assessment of the Romney doco made by Gingrich

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/11/mitt-romney-newt-gingrich-attack_n_1200491.html

ruawake
Guest

[He says the price of iron ore has fallen around 30 per cent since May 2010, when the figures were calculated.]

Why use May 2010, why not use July 2010. Oh thats right Iron Ore prices have risen. šŸ˜›

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=60

Space Kidette
Guest

Anybody know when the next Newspoll is due?

Frank Calabrese
Guest
victoria
Guest

Taking budgie smugglers to another level

[
A MAN has been fined and banned from recreational fishing after confusing his budgie smugglers for abalone smugglers.]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/smuggler-hid-illegal-abalone-in-underpants/story-fn7x8me2-1226242590728

Outsider
Guest

Grantplant – correct. 51.5 2PP to the Coalition using “last election” basis for preference allocation.

Toorak Toff
Guest

Pyne will have to be careful how he plays the River Murray thing. South Australians are very touchy on this issue.

leone
Guest

Socrates

[Iā€™m pretty sure that there have been stories in the same paper about consumer spending being subdued because people are paying down their credit card debts instead!]

Spot on! For ages we’ve been told by the msm that consumers are spending less because they are paying off their credit cards. Now it seems they’ve been spending as much as ever. So if no-one is buying from Hardly Normal and the like just what is being whacked on all those credit cards? Drugs? Booze?

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

ru,

Everyone is in the Liberal party is totally committed to the plans to slash Government spending. Only, due to the peculiar and vital nature of the areas under their individual control, they can not contribute to the reduction. However, they do re affirm their committment to the concept.

grantplant
Guest

Outsider @ 1807

I take it that is 51.5 to the Noalition and 48.5 to the ALP?

If so then yes those are good at this point in time.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Another excellent piece by Grog in the Drum. A very good readd. Comments range from the soberly intelligent to the outer space variety.

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3768324.html

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