Port Adelaide and Ramsay by-elections live
PORT ADELAIDE # %
Feb 11, 2012
PORT ADELAIDE # %
|Lawrie (IND LIB)||2429||15.1%||-11.2%|
|Booths counted||11 out of 11|
|Votes counted||63.6% of enrolled voters|
10.16pm. All 2PP results are now in, so the table is finalised by the night. Declaration votes are still to come, but these can be relied upon to lean in the favour of incumbent major political parties.
9.23pm. Taperoo primary votes added. Only the last two booths’ two-party counts remain outstanding.
8.56pm. Mawson Lakes booth primary vote result added.
8.47pm. The 2CP result from Ottoway has truly broken the back of Johanson’s challenge to Labor, splitting 1110-595 against him. Labor’s raw lead is now 6.1 per cent. Mawson Lakes and Taperoo still yet to report.
8.20pm. Ottoway has reported on the primary vote and Parafield Gardens on 2CP: both strong results for Labor. The raw 2CP and my projection are now in accord: Labor ahead by 4.2 per cent.
8.09pm. Parafield Gardens Central has reported on 2CP which has brought the raw figure almost in line with my projection, which is always gratifying. I think Labor are home and hosed now.
8.05pm. And sure enough, Parafield Gardens North-West has reported 2CP and put Labor in a 1.8 per cent lead on the raw 2CP total, while they continue to edge up on my projection. Barring late surprises, I think they can probably start breathing a little easier now.
8.01pm. We’ve got five booths that have reported 2CP and eight that have reported the primary vote. The three which have done the latter but not the former are all from Parafield Gardens, and Labor’s primary vote in the booths in question is 48.5 per cent compared with 40.9 per cent for the others which mostly explains why my projection is rosier for Labor than the raw figures.
7.55pm. The large Parafield Gardens Central booth has given Labor a boost, such that Johanson’s raw 2CP lead is now just 0.1 per cent. The smaller Taperoo East has reported on both primary and 2CP. My own projection is remaining fairly steady, which is what it’s designed to do.
7.50pm. North Haven booth has simultaneously reported primary and 2CP and it’s a very strong result for Johanson, whose share of preferences has also increased to 72.6 per cent. On the raw 2CP count from four booths, he has a 1.3 per cent lead, although my projection has Labor 2.7 per cent ahead.
7.47pm. Parafield Gardens North-West booth reports and it’s the weakest yet for Johnason, slightly pushing out my projected Labor lead on 2CP.
7.36pm. A third booth has reported 2CP. The raw figures from the three booths with 2CP have Johanson with his nose in front 50.6-49.4, but my projection factors in that these were below average booths for Labor in 2010.
7.34pm. Sorry, corrected an error in my calculations – Johanson is getting 69.8 per cent of preferences, and I’ve now got Labor back in front.
7.32pm. The Port Adelaide booth has reported its primary votes and, better yet, two booths have reported 2CP counts – and Johanson is getting 77 per cent of preferences rather than the 66 per cent I was projected. That puts him in the lead on my projection, and he also has his nose in front on the raw count from those two booths.
7.27pm. Meanwhile in Ramsay, five of nine booths have reported and Labor’s primary vote remains a little over 50 per cent.
7.24pm. Swings recorded in the table above are booth-matched. I’ve included one for Lawrie who was the Liberal candidate in 2010. At present, Labor’s 2PP is calculated by adding the booth-matched swing to their total primary vote result from 2010 and giving them one third of the preferences. If their preference share proves significantly lower than that, they’re in big trouble.
7.23pm. Port Adelaide booth now added; my projection now has Labor a little further ahead, but with Labor below 40 per cent and Johanson pushing 30 per cent, they’d be feeling very nervous.
7.21pm. With a second booth added (Largs North-West to go with the earlier Largs North-East) I now have Labor sneaking in front, but until we start getting booths reporting their two-candidate preferred counts, this will continue to be off an arbitrary preference split.
7.17pm. I’ve just published my table and it projects Gary Johanson as being in the lead, but at this stage this comes from a completely arbitrary 66-34 preference guess, so please don’t take it as a prediction.
7.14pm. The first booth from Port Adelaide is an intriguingly strong result for Gary Johanson on 29.0 per cent, with Labor on 41.0 per cent. If this keeps up, it might well be close.
7.01pm. I note that ECSA have nominated Gary Johanson in Port Adelaide and Ruth Beach of the Greens in Ramsay as their candidates for the notional two-candidate preferred count. Though for what it’s worth, the weekend’s Advertiser poll had independent Liberal Sue Lawrie outpolling Johanson.
6.57pm. One booth in from Ramsay and the Labor vote is at 53.2 per cent. The second placed candidate is independent and occasional PB commenter Mark Aldridge on 17.4 per cent. So no boilover there clearly. I will only be doing my usual results table and swing calculation for Port Adelaide.
6.05pm. Polls have closed in South Australia’s Port Adelaide and Ramsay by-elections. Results should start coming in in about an hour, maybe a little sooner.
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