Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter

Advertisement

Newspoll: 58-42 to LNP in Queensland

Newspoll has published the first poll of the Queensland election campaign, if that's what it can accurately be called before the writs have been issued, and it offers no respite for the

Share

Newspoll has published the first poll of the Queensland election campaign, if that’s what it can accurately be called before the writs have been issued, and it offers no respite for the Bligh government: the LNP is up three points on the primary vote to 47 per cent, Labor is down one to 30 per cent and the Greens are down one to 9 per cent. Where in the final quarter of 2011 Labor narrowed its two-party vote deficit from 61-39 to 56-44, it’s now back out to 58-42. Anna Bligh has nonetheless gained two points on approval to 41 per cent, with disapproval steady on 50 per cent, while Campbell Newman’s disapproval rating continues to head north, to 37 per cent from 33 per cent in the previous poll and 27 per cent in the one before. His approval rating is steady at 45 per cent after a six-point drop last time. Both leaders are up a point on preferred premier, with Newman leading 44-40. There are also questions on respondents’ strength of commitment to their vote choice, which typically shows less commitment among supporters of the weaker party, and which party they expect to win (54 per cent for the LNP and 22 per cent for Labor). Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE (19/2): Now we have a Galaxy poll with the LNP’s two-party lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 a fortnight ago, with the primary votes at 30 per cent for Labor (down two), 49 per cent for the LNP (steady), 11 per cent for the Greens (up one) and 5 per cent for Katter’s Australian Party (up one). Campbell Newman’s lead over Anna Bligh as preferred premier is down from 49-40 to 50-43. Bligh is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 52 per cent; Newman is down one on approval to 47 per cent and up three on disapproval to 40 per cent.

Advertisement

Advertisement

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

92 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
shellbell
Guest
dovif
Guest

Mack the Knife

The Newspoll got the NSW and Federal election exactly right. They under-reported the Liberal vote in the last SA, WA and Victoria Election.

Based on past trends, if Newspoll has any bias, it would be to the ALP

Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest

I had a Reach poll the other night , and i am in the edge of Lockyer ( Greenbank ). It was a computer asking Questions . Saw a Newman sign on the Greenbank Army Camp Fence (actually inside fence )??? Is that allowed on Commonwealth Land ? I rang Craig Emerson’s office to inform them. Looks like i will be busy pulling down illegal signs AGAIN !

DavidWH
Guest

Phil I did some quick calculations and think the bears margin of error is 50%. Reach Tel is likely to be less than that.

DavidWH
Guest

Phil I think Fraser does the same as you.

ShiftyPhil
Guest

DavidWH@86

Reach Tel did a recent survey on Ferny Grove which shows if anything the swing is back to the LNP. Mind you I agree those polls have to be taken with a degree of scepticism.

Well I choose to take the serious predictions of a psychic bear over your hocus-pocus “polling.”

DavidWH
Guest

Reach Tel did a recent survey on Ferny Grove which shows if anything the swing is back to the LNP. Mind you I agree those polls have to be taken with a degree of scepticism.

DavidWH
Guest

Phil are you sure that wasn’t the psyco-sun bear?

shellbell
Guest

Shifty

Looked rigged – what (or who) was behind Newman’s mask?

ShiftyPhil
Guest

I won’t be convinced until it’s confirmed by an octopus or a crocodile, but apparently the ‘psychic sun-bear’ says Bligh will win.

h­ttp://c.ooyala.com/MwN2xqMzpczwJLmYRZGR3w9RhEub94RN/DOcJ-FxaFrRg4gtGEwOjV2OjBmO6XjoQ

Mack the Knife
Guest

Personally I’ve been of the view that Newspolls have been used to steer elections towards the conservatives across the world. I find it significant that everyone of their polls anywhere show massive support for the local conservative parties.

I expect these pollsters to cover their arses closer to the election with a late narrowing of the gap between the parties like the last Queensland election where on election day the Courier Mail headlined (incorrectly) that voters were deserting Labor in droves and implied a LNP victory.

The election will be a litmus test for Newspoll accuracy

steve
Guest

Patrick Condren Ch7 Day 2 summary:

http://www.twitvid.com/EIWUM

steve
Guest
steve
Guest
steve
Guest

The @LNPQLD say they have nothing to do with the Aust Family Assoc, but they will NOT say whether they do or do not support the message.

wal kolla
Guest

I don’t understand why you call Newman can-do?
I would take that as a complement as someone prepared to do something.
Unlike the clowns we have had in victoria in the last 10 years.
Bailleu is a do-nothing
Brumby was a did-nothing to be premier
and bracks was a firecracker – made a lot of noise, but achieved very little. (regional trains excluded).

steve
Guest

couriermail.com.au @couriermail
Today I have accepted the resignation of Mr Peter Watson as candidate for Southern Downs- ALP’s state director Anthony Chisholm #qldvotes

DavidWH
Guest

How are we going to return to Joe style corruption when we have a functioning CMC with wide powers to investigate corruption? It was a different era and things have changed.

Geoff Robinson
Guest

KAP will help Labor a bit & maybe swing will be biggest in LNP seats but still looking like a very heavy defeat for ALP. Could it be particularity bad in Brisbane as urban voters rally to an urban conservative party?

1934pc
Guest

When people want change they move into the unknown, I just hope they blindly don’t return to the Joh era, the LNP with Newnam “the blow in” are a unknown quantity with as of now unknown policies, at least we KNOW the State is in resonable condition with huge potetial.
Be careful of what you ask for!.

hutch
Guest

Steve @ 6.55am I am interested as to why you believe that the Newspoll numbers you mention are “corrupt and totally unbelievable”. The bottom right hand table seems to indicate it is split almost exactly on party lines and ties roughly to the primrary votes from Saturday’s poll (47 LNP vs 30+9 ALP+G).

steve
Guest

I think that these Newspoll numbers for better able to handle the Queensland economy are corrupt and totally unbelievable. It looks like Newspoll has a very poor sample here. No way can those figures be real given reality of LNP track record of saying nothing on economic policy and the poor economic record of Newman as Lord Mayor. Add the refusal to be transparent about mix of Newman Inc. Public versus personal financial details and this poll question result is not in the realms of a true result meaning anything real.

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

Newspoll data on QLD state issues as been released:

comment image

steve
Guest
steve
Guest
shellbell
Guest

I am guessing Clive Palmer wont be sitting among the fans at the next Gold Coast home game

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-sport/bleiberg-quits-as-gold-coast-coach-20120219-1thcn.html

steve
Guest

A hard day at work for Premier Seeney and Treasurer Nicholls:

http://twitter.com/#!/korenhelbig/status/171071970169978880/photo/1

steve
Guest

Cathy border Day 1:

http://www.twitvid.com/7SBNI

steve
Guest
why worry
Guest

I like the idea of an LNP landslide, it will put a lot of crazy people into the Qld parliament, some of the LNP candidates this time if elected around will make the likes of Frank Tanti and Ted Radke look almost bookish…

DavidWH
Guest

I’m not smug but the polls aren’t showing Katter to be a material problem for the LNP. I think most people made up their minds a long time ago and are unlikely to change in sufficient numbers to change the outcome. Given what’s happening federally I doubt we want anothe minority government. But it is QLD so anything is possible

Luckydave
Guest

DavidWH, hopefully the LNP leadership share your smugness and complacency towards Katter, because his One Nation in a hat is gonna give ‘Em a whippin’!

DavidWH
Guest

Just sounds like the usual political spin Steve. I think there is a good chance many of the Katter preferences will exhaust

Leroy Lynch
Guest

From KAP’s twitter…

[After looking stringently @ ALP & LNP cannot see any social, economic difference in policies of either party

KAP will not preference either ALP or LNP

Queensland’s future is more important than propping up either Anna Bligh or Campbell Newman]

steve
Guest

Reality of Katter being a significant force in this election beginning to dawn on Tory cheersquad. Apparently the LNP thought they were just going to walk into government with no scrutiny and no opposition from anyone. If anyone can translate the tory speak below into plain English please do so.

[Disgraceful Bob Katter giving preferences to Labor. Next he will support Rudd. Might as well vote green as KAP #qldpol #qldvotes]

steve
Guest

shellbell we saw exctly the same sort of lunacy when Christopher Skase owned the Brisbane Bears before they became the Lions. There has never been a good time to put dodgy Tories in charge of anything.

shellbell
Guest
steve
Guest

[Good numbers Ghost given what has been thrown at Newman.]

Agreed DavidWH the trauma of having to spit that silver spoon from his mouth when born has been ongoingly difficult no doubt and having to bear all the gravitas of the born to rule syndrome is tough alright. Why people make there son’s life so difficult is hard to explain but these numbers will ease the pain somewhat.

DavidWH
Guest

Good numbers Ghost given what has been thrown at Newman.

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

The rest of the Galaxy poll:

Bligh: Approve 43 (0) Disapprove 52 (+2)
Newman: Approve 47 (-1) Disapprove 40 (+3)

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

If the LNP wins a majority and Ashgrove then I expect the Katter Party to get a higher vote and more seats at the 2013 Commonwealth and 2015 Queensland elections.

Luckydave
Guest

Campbell is probably wowing them the blue ribbon Liberal seats like clayfield, I hope he’s racking up the votes there rather than in the marginals.

steve
Guest

[I am not sure the alternative will be a lot better but it’s time to at least find out.]

I lived under them for 30 years and I can assure you they are hopeless.

DavidWH
Guest

Steve I didn’t say we don’t care about the economy only that we don’t care about the political spin about the economy. QLD has a struggling fiscal position, debt that’s increasing, loss of our AAA credit rating and a government that has been wasting money on policy bungles. We know what we have now and have decided to try something different. I am not sure the alternative will be a lot better but it’s time to at least find out.

The Galaxy Poll just confirms that the attacks on Newman personally are being allowed to go through to the keeper.

Luckydave
Guest

Ouch! I wonder what is the largest campaign swing ever achieved in Australian politics. I recall reading a thread not long ago that basically claimed 4% as the highest swing during a campaign, but that may be to win. I wonder what the biggest campaign swing may be? Anna sure has her work cut out for her. Bloody Bob Katter is on the rise. If he keeps picking up 1% a week he’ll reach double digits yet.

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

Galaxy Poll Queensland – 15-17 February, 800 voters

Two Party Preferred: ALP 40 (-1) LNP 60 (+1)
Primary Votes: ALP 30 (-2) LNP 49 (0) GRN 11 (+1) KAP 5 (+1)

amortiser
Guest
Catalyst: If this just a media beatup, all it requires to put it to bed is for Rudd to declare his undying loyalty to Gillard and state that he has no intention to challenge for the leadership before the next election. Rudd has shown no inclination to hose down the speculation which is so seriously destabilising the government. This has nothing to do with the Qld election. If this leadership issue was having a deleterious effect on Rudd’s popularity all he would need to do is make an unequivocal statement regarding the leadership. This is symptomatic of the disfunctionality of… Read more »
Catalyst
Guest
Wondering if we have missed the point of the sudden start of Ruddstration talk again- could it be about the Queensland election? Its not totally off the wall….the media had stopped -and last evening Laura Tingle ( looking very uncomfortable) and Dennis Shanahan( If I predict it often enough I will be right) were rehashing it again on Lateline Making sure that Mr Rudd is unpopular with Labor voters could be so that Campbell Newman ( who may have some very tricky questions to answer) is able to coast into Ashgrove. Discrediting Mr Rudd who is campaigning for Labor gives… Read more »
steve
Guest
After three Queensland elections where they helped Tories win seats in Brisbane the Greens have been woken up with a jolt. It will be interesting to see how much they preference their Tory mates this time but I think it might all be a bit late now. [“There can only be one way to understand this. He intends to make two-thirds of the department responsible for mining and resource industry facilitation and only one-third will enforce environmental protection legislation. “There is already a mining facilitation department – the Mines section of DEEDI – and the only department that can ensure… Read more »
steve
Guest
wpDiscuz

Advertisement

Telling you what the others don't. FREE for 21 days.