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Queensland election minus four weeks

Around the grounds: Ashgrove (Labor 7.1%): Yet another ReachTel automated phone poll for Ashgrove was conducted

Around the grounds:

Ashgrove (Labor 7.1%): Yet another ReachTel automated phone poll for Ashgrove was conducted on February 9 from a sample of 616, and it showed Campbell Newman with a narrower lead than in any of the previous five: 49 per cent to 41 per cent on the primary vote, which panned out to an implausibly narrow 51-49 on ReachTel’s dubious two-party preferred measure. The Greens continue to hover around 6 per cent in this poll series, which is much lower than seems credible in this seat. In other Ashgrove news, the LNP is complaining that a “community group” to back Kate Jones under the banner “Locals for Locals” was set up by Labor to help it evade the $50,000 spending cap on promoting individual candidates which is coming into force at this election.

South Brisbane (Labor 15.0%): ReachTel also targeted the Premier’s electorate with a poll canvassing 339 respondents on January 23, and it found Anna Bligh leading the LNP 35 per cent to 34 per cent, which would pan out to a very comfortable win for her after distribution of preferences from the Greens, who were on 22 per cent.

Ferny Grove (Labor 4.5%): The most recent ReachTel poll canvassed 370 respondents in this seat on February 17, and together with past results it seems to suggest a pattern of ReachTel being roughly plausible in inner suburban seats like the two noted previously, but producing fantastically bad results for Labor further out in the suburbs. This poll had Labor incumbent Geoff Wilson trailing LNP challenger Dale Shuttleworth 63 per cent to 23 per cent on the primary vote. This was the first ReachTel poll which didn’t come with a respondent-allocated two-party preferred result, which presumably had something to do with Antony Green’s blog post on the matter a week earlier.

Mount Ommaney (Labor 4.8%): Following a very late retirement announcement from Labor member Julie Attwood, the party’s new candidate is Ben Marczyk, an organiser with Together Queensland.

Stretton (Labor 9.5%) and Sunnybank (Labor 10.8%): Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that retiring Labor MPs Stephen Robertson and Judy Spence failed to attend the opening of their successor candidates’ electorate office. Robertson has reportedly “fallen out with branch members after the party preselected unionist Duncan Pegg over his preferred candidate, David Forde” (who is running as an independent), and “courted controversy late last year by attending a fundraising function for Mr Forde”.

Broadwater (Labor 2.0%): The ABC reports that Ron Clarke, the 75-year-old Gold Coast mayor, says he will decide over the weekend whether he will run as an independent against Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft.

Southern Downs (LNP 21.1%): Peter Watson, Labor’s 19-year-old candidate for this unwinnable rural seat, has been disendorsed and expelled from the party over comments he left on web forums at the age of 15 and 16, in which he supported the White Australia Policy and said homosexuals were “degenerates” who should be “wiped out” from society. Anna Bligh argued, rather implausibly, that Watson had infiltrated the party in order to embarrass it. However, his father Dudley Watson is a long-standing party member and former president of his local branch, and resigned his membership in response to Bligh’s comments. Labor is using Watson’s expulsion to claim higher standards than the LNP, which is continuing to endorse Gavin King in Cairns despite his colourful record as a newspaper columnist. This follows the LNP using Richard Towson’s withdrawal in Broadwater over a drink-driving offence to plead higher standards than Labor, which continues to endorse Algester MP Karen Struthers despite her own drink driving conviction in 2007. Labor’s dumping of Watson has called attention to the party’s large retinue of wet-behind-the-ears candidates: 18-year-old Ben Parker, who lives on the Gold Coast, in Gympie; 20-year-old Oscar Schlamowitz in Indooroopilly; 20-year-old Jack O’Brien in Gregory; and 19-year-old Rachel Patterson in Mermaid Beach.

Lytton (Labor 12.2%): Meanwhile, the LNP’s 23-year-old candidate for Lytton, Neil Symes, has attracted attention over comments he made on Facebook describing asylum seekers as “terrorists and queue jumpers”.

Also:

Bernard Keane of Crikey observes that spending caps which are taking effect at this election arrive just in time for Labor’s loss of its spending advantage over the LNP, whose coffers have been engorged by donors courting favour with the expected victor.

• The registration of political parties which will take effect at the election has been finalised and it doesn’t include the Australian Sex Party, who were unable to prove they had the requisite 500 members. All that leaves is Labor, the LNP, the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party, One Nation, Family First and Daylight Saving for South East Queensland.

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122 comments

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This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

More LNP shenanigans:

The Liberal National Party (LNP) is facing another pre-selection embarrassment on Queensland’s Gold Coast after reports its candidate for the seat of Albert, Mark Boothman, ran a pornography website.

h­ttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-08/lnp-candidate-ran-porn-website-report/3875782

dovif
Guest
Steve said “I really do wonder if it is not the another version of the whinge and win theory” of the Tories The champion of this theory would be the Federal ALP, because it is never their fault, lets look at a list of people they have blamed for their massive list of failures. Rudd Dumping the ETS, it is either the Rat f*cking chinese or Julia Budget blowout on the BER, NSW ALP’s fault Changing the law (writen by Gillard) to allow boat people in, that is Abbott’s fault for helping Gillard pen the new law? Stuffed up the… Read more »
steve
Guest

Andrew Fraser ‏ @AndrewFraserMP

The allegations in the Courier Mail against me are completely and utterly baseless and false. LNP has tried this on before in Parlt.

steve
Guest

The Courier mail has picked up a piece of paper that blew off the Campaign bus they were following:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/forestry-plantations-queensland-sale-complaint-alleges-secret-lobby-link-to-alp/story-fnbt5t29-1226289937508

Apparently it will keep the Newman Inc cheersqauds excitedly commenting all day.

steve
Guest

The Reachtel Poll for Ashgrove is being released in about an hour and a half from now (just after 7.00am Brisbane on ABC local radio). This will be the first real big indicator for how this election has gone so far. If there has been any movement in the state campaign I would expect it to show up in Ashgrove where all the resources have been focussed by both sides.

DavidWH
Guest

This all seems like something out of Alice in Wonderland and the Mad Hatter has lost all sense of reality. Having toyed with One Nation in the 90’s I have more faith in QLD country people than you do Steve to see beyond the craziness that KAP offers. But it is QLD and we have done some crazy things in the past. I put it down to too much sunshine and the fact we have been short of that for a while could be a positive.

Antony GREEN
Guest
It is a very expensive way to get publicity. They’ll end up paying for teams of senior counsel to represent both the state and the commonwealth. You can see from the judge’s remarks what she thinks of the arguments put so far in relation to the Electoral Act. Pauline Hanson was very fortunate after the NSW election that the Court of Disputed Returns decided the state should pay to resolve the origin of accusations of electoral fraud rather than make her pay for having taken them to court. The Australian Party is unlikely to be so lucky unless they can… Read more »
steve
Guest

Gympie went to One Nation for years too and seats like this would be prime pickings for Katter. I don’t think a developer’s friend from Brisbane Central or a Former Brisbane Lord Mayor will hold much appeal for people in these areas and if the Reachtel Poll run tonight and out tomorrow might mean that Newman Inc. will have to stay in town to protect their own turf.

steve
Guest
Antony, I really do wonder if it is not the another version of the whinge and win theory the Queensland Tories know how to sook and whinge and have turned sookiness into votes for years. Katter himself is an ex National Party Minister and in the areas where Katter is strongest this whining goes down a treat. It will do them no harm at all in seats like Beaudesert, Dalrymple, Nanango, Cook, Barron River, Mt Isa and Callide. They will run on the old Hansen anti politician line and claim the whole establishment from the major parties to the courts… Read more »
Antony GREEN
Guest
The Australian Party’s case is crazy. They are now arguing Section 109 of the Constitution, inconsistency between state an commonwealth law so the commonwealth law should apply. The problem is that in its application to register the abbreviation, Katter’s Australian Party used the Queensland Electoral Act. To argue Section 109 now is to argue the party should have been prevented from being granted the abbreviation it requested. The other problem is the Commonwealth Electoral Act explicitly applies only to Commonwealth elections. The Act is completely silent on the conduct of Queensland elections, so there can’t be a conflict between state… Read more »
steve
Guest

Michael Crutcher ‏ @MJCrutcher
Another CM election exclusive tomorrow. @stevenwardill on the mate’s rates story that will dominate the day. #qldvotes

steve
Guest

Channel 7 election night coverage:

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10150722415186873

steve
Guest
shellbell
Guest

Katter’s counsel is Sandy Street SC, the son, grandson and greatgrandson of Chief Justices of NSW

steve
Guest
Antony Green given foyer of new ABC Building at Southbank for election night coverage: [Please note: Queensland Votes 2012 will be broadcast in Queensland only on ABC1. The new ABC Brisbane headquarters will be transformed into the ABC Queensland Election Centre on Saturday, March 24, hosting the corporation’s multi-platform election coverage from the building’s new foyer. On election night the ABC will mount the most comprehensive broadcast on TV, radio, online and mobile. Continuing the leading coverage of the Queensland election campaign, the ABC will provide the most accurate and expert analysis on election night. ABC TV coverage will be… Read more »
steve
Guest
[QUEENSLANDERS will have to wait until at least Wednesday to learn whether a Supreme Court application by Katter’s Australian Party to have its founder’s name included on ballot papers will delay the state election. The organisation and its Queensland leader Aidan McLindon’s application to have the Electoral Commission of Queensland cease the production and distribution of ballot papers bearing the party’s registered abbreviated title “The Australian Party” remained part heard before Justice Roslyn Atkinson on Monday. The case, in which the party is seeking to have its full registered title “Katter’s Australian Party (Queensland Division) featured next to candidates’ names,… Read more »
steve
Guest

Now Newman Inc. has reverted to “just sent Labor a message” advertisments. They must have some bad polling if they have had to switch to this.

steve
Guest

Premier Seeney maths are brilliant. Does he forget Borbidge or regret Borbidge?

danielhurstbne LNP’s Jeff Seeney media release says “tired, 20 year old Labor Govt” is “failing basic maths” on Bruce Hwy funding #qldvotes #subtractskills 8 hours ago ·

comment image&p=rob+borbidge&type=&no=2&tt=108&oid=http%3A%2F%2Fts1.mm.bing.net%2Fimages%2Fthumbnail.aspx%3Fq%3D1622809710286%26id%3Dc862337caf5dfd294e63fc0d167c3222&tit=Rob+Borbidge+…+remember+him%3F+Photo%3A+Angela+Wylie&sigr=165578uh8&sigi=15ut1hgal&sigb=11v9kf9n1&fr=yfp-t-501-s

steve
Guest

Fake Jeff Seeney ‏ @FakeJeffSeeney
@CD_track is apt name for Cam’s official twitter acct. Like a dodgy CD he keeps skipping; on his costings, on Qs he cant answer & The Truth.

steve
Guest

Patrick Lion ‏ @patricklion
RT @seanparnell Newman: “I don’t want to sound like an egotist, but I am better qualified than anybody down there the ALP has put forward.””
Retweeted by Col Smith

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