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Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling f

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We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.

Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

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3344 comments

3,344 thoughts on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

  1. kezza2

    [cybercynicagain
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 5:36 pm | Permalink
    Showsoff and Kezza need to settle their dual the Australian way….
    Pants down and first to do the 100 meter waddle.

    By the way put me down for Rudd obtaining 17 tomorrow]
    I’d win hands down . . er pants down . . because . . .
    well, ShowsOn’d be too busy doing the ShowOff.

  2. Smaug

    Personally I see Gillard growing into the Prime Minister-ship and this spill (assuming > 60% win) will only legitimize her in that position. I am very much of the opinion that Abbott is unelectable, that even lifetime Liberals will have a problem with actually voting for him. At the moment it’s not about Abbott, it’s about Gillard and people indicating they’d vote Liberal is because that choice is not Gillard however when push comes to shove people will vote for Gillard above Abbott. If Abbott gets rolled then it’s a different question but I still think Gillard is growing into the job in such a way that momentum will build once she has the clear air.

  3. dedalus

    Mark Latham – remember him?

    Turns out he called it right about one K Rudd in the Latham Diaries in 2005. And guess who was one of the very few he had good things to say about? The “rising star” of the labor party:

    you guessed it – J Gillard

    Almost forgive ya, Mark.

  4. gusface

    btw

    just read back a bit

    shows aint a pay per poster

    maybe a sock puppet artiste but not a voice for hire

    🙁

  5. Scarpat

    [maybe a sock puppet artiste but not a voice for hire]

    certainly not a brain for hire.

  6. Danny Lewis

    Okay: for the benefit of all the “OMFG – Its Teh Evil Factions!” crowd, here is another (more detailed) reality check.

    Of Rudd’s 21 declared supporters, this is where they sit:

    Anthony Albanese – NSW Left Faction LEADER
    Doug Cameron – NSW Left Faction LEADER
    Janelle Saffin – NSW Left Faction (born in Queensland)

    Chris Bowen – NSW Right
    Robert McClelland – NSW Right
    Ed Husic – NSW Right
    Ursula Stephens – NSW Right (Parliamentary Secretary to PM Rudd)
    Justine Elliot – NSW Right (Parliamentary Secretary to PM Rudd, born in Queensland)

    Kim Carr – Victorian Left Faction LEADER
    Martin Ferguson – Victorian Left Faction LEADER
    Alan Griffin – Victorian Left Faction LEADER
    Maria Vamvakinou – Victorian Left (used to work for Kim Carr)
    Laura Smyth – Victorian Left
    Darren Cheeseman – Victorian Left
    Gavin Marshall – Victorian Left

    Anthony Byrne – Victorian Right (Parliamentary Secretary to Rudd PM)

    Kevin Rudd – Queensland Right
    Mark Furner – Queensland Right

    Tony Zappia – SA Left

    Nick Champion – SA Right

    Mark Bishop – WA Right

    Rudd has 5 faction leaders working for him – how many did you say Gillard has?

    Given the disparity in numbers of SUPPORTERS, there is clearly more going on here than just factional allegiances.

    I would have thought that is blindingly obvious but, then again, none are more blind than those who refuse to see …

  7. mexicanbeemer

    Not sure if this has been mentioned but another well written post from Andrew Elder

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/gillard-and-labor-leadership.html

  8. gusface

    yeah

    looking beyonds tomorrow’s shootout at the OK corral

    what impact will this have on JG herself

    for mine she will grow 10 feet tall by the events that have unfolded

    plus the WHOLE team now know how to control the dachshunds of the MSM

  9. ShowsOn

    [bk

    i was enjoying gtards rambles]
    Last I heard Greentard was at dance class doing the wombat shuffle with Flo.

  10. kezza2

    [Oscar
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Permalink
    hand = hang, obviously

    Freud would have had something to say about that one!]
    Yeah, lucky Freud has entered the lexicon is all I can say.
    Otherwise, he would be tarred with the “unusual interest in sexual activity” brush. 😆

  11. Scarpat

    [I would have thought that is blindingly obvious but, then again, none are more blind than those who refuse to see …]

    Dl,

    It is ShowsOn after all…

  12. gusface

    shows

    does gtard do the tango?

  13. Oscar

    [ does gtard do the tango? ]

    Nah! It takes two …

  14. dedalus

    Rossmore:

    Excellente compadre.

    You Tube is one of the reasons we need to tell the TV stations to go get f***d and vote for Julia so we get the f***n NBN.

    As John Goodman might put it.

  15. ShowsOn

    [Personally I see Gillard growing into the Prime Minister-ship and this spill (assuming > 60% win) will only legitimize her in that position.]
    Oh dear lord…

    She isn’t going to grow into anything. She will limp along for about 6 months before she gets a tap on the shoulder and is told to resign.

  16. poroti

    Something for the do nothings who would roll back or delay lowering the carbon intensity of our economy.
    [Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama ]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/9105796/Soaring-oil-prices-will-dwarf-the-Greek-drama.html

  17. Scarpat

    I love it that channel 9 and perhaps the other stations are going to follow tomorrow’s events from 5:30 AM. The actors themselves don’t turn up until 10:00 AM.

  18. cybercynicagain

    I would have thought that is blindingly obvious but, then again, none are more blind than those who refuse to see …

    Hence the need for that flashlight

  19. This little black duck

    Will ShowsOn do a Rumpelstiltskin when he hears the result of the vote?

  20. ShowsOn

    [Dl,

    It is ShowsOn after all…]
    I will not stand for your abuse!

    If we have to settle this with a pissing contest, so be it!

  21. dedalus

    Gusface 3008

    Too true.

    The bunsen burner is being primed as we speak. It’ll be Fahreinheit 451 for the MSM.

  22. Thomas Paine

    Gillard’s hatred quotient will rise after this and will be reflected over the next two or three weeks polls. And those who were previously soft Liberal voters will be confirmed Liberal voters.

    Now will the factional thugs be able to put hold on their Rudd smearing campaign, or given their maliciousness will they be unable to resist, thereby keeping the fight going.

    As these thugs continue to wreck Labor, Rudd and whoever else is sick of the party machine can and might walk away.

    Arbib for Australian of the year.

  23. rishane

    [I can’t for the life of me understand the argument that Labor is terminal based on polling.

    The current spread is only 6 points, which is nothing. And its perfectly likely that the second 18 months will be more favourable to Labor than the first.

    Particularly when Rudd is put back in his box – though for how long depends on how many waverers have the poor judgment to vote for him tomorrow.]

    Probably because its been repeated so much, like a feedback cycle. As others have noted, its also worth remembering how many times Gillard has been written off by various journalists with nothing of the sort happening.

  24. Thomas Paine

    Of course there could be some Liberal’s masquerading to the media as Labor, stirring the pot some more later. And of course the spite existent on Gillard’s side of the table will out immediately. To easy to read this book.

  25. dave

    dedalus
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    I can’t for the life of me understand the argument that Labor is terminal based on polling.

    The current spread is only 6 points, which is nothing. And its perfectly likely that the second 18 months will be more favourable to Labor than the first.

    Plus *our* Ari’s excellent segment this morning on Insiders clearly showed a trend back to Labor from the depths has been underway for sometime.

    I am not saying its all full steam ahead for team PM Gillard, but am not writing them off either. Anything can and probably will happen in the coming 18 months.

  26. poroti

    Oscar
    [ does gtard do the tango?

    Nah! It takes two …]
    Nah, gtard went to the Billy Idol Academy of Dance.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG1NrQYXjLU&ob=av2e

  27. Dr John

    112c, 114c,116c……yawn

  28. Scarpat

    [I will not stand for your abuse!

    If we have to settle this with a pissing contest, so be it!]

    SO,

    The coin has been tossed and you are running into the wind.

  29. Bushfire Bill

    [ Well done, Jessica, you and your equally useless father never cease to impress us.

    There’s no need to make this debate using personal attacks on the candidates and members of their families.]

    Stick to “Greentard”, you idiot, Shows.

    I go away for an hour to walk my dogs and you still haven’t improved.

    Jessica Wright is neither a candidate, nor a member of any of their families. She’s a journalist, daughter of the equally egregious Tony Wright, and they both peddle stupidity (their own) in their articles.

    Both specialize in scribing quirky little parables, based on such tortured allegories as Rudd mentioning Mae West at CHOGM last year, to the otherwise unremarkable reading habits of Jessica’s son as a metaphor for the fate of the government. Get one of them on the phone (Tony is a regular on ABC afternoon shows) and you can hear the cynicism dripping from every word, just like they think grown-up journos should sound.

    Jessica’s latest pathetic effort was to take an announcement from Peter Slipper, seeking to correct a misconception abroad in the public that tomorrow’s vote is one for “the people”, setting the record straight that it is a party room thing only (and that democracy is being followed thereto).

    She could have written a few articles herself, setting out the constitutional facts of the situation, and may have saved Slipper the trouble of having to make a video on the subject. But she must have been too busy thinking up smirkworthy bon mots to consider actually informing the woefully misinformed public of the procedural facts surrounding tomorrow’s ballot.

    Like father, like daughter: Wright, pere et fille are are waste of space and add nothing to either the national debate or the edification of the public.

    In short, both are useless as a two-bob watch.

  30. kezza2

    [It set me thinking about other quality rants. This is up there, from that excellent series Treme. I dedicate John Goodman’s closing words to Shows On and his ilk.]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXIBfAd-0Yw&feature=related

    Thanks Rossmore

    I’m relating Goodman’s rant to the Qld floods – and Abbott trying to link the rebuilding of Brisbane, Bris suburbs and country areas of Qld with Foreign Aid, rather than a levy.

    Whoopdeedo dogwhistle immediately to the xenophobes.
    Abbott needs to be castrated from Aus politics. NOW.

    Only Gillard can do him over.

  31. Boerwar

    The Labor Party will give Ms Gillard a solid mandate tomorrow. His peers, deprived last time of voting him out of office because he was too gutless to run, will finish the job off tomorrow.

    Despite shocking, landslide polls, Mr Rudd’s peers will deliver an overwhelming message: we don’t want you as a manager.

    He has said that he will cede all leadership ambitions if defeated tomorrow.

    Sure, sure. Investment hint from the F,B,F&Co Futures Division: Go Long Flying Pigs.

  32. cybercynicagain

    3020
    ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Permalink
    Dl,

    It is ShowsOn after all…

    I will not stand for your abuse!

    If we have to settle this with a pissing contest, so be it!

    Finally .. A reason to keep your mouth shut 🙂

  33. leone

    The proxy vote rules for Labor caucus voting apply to everyone, not just women who have had babies. The Libs are the same – you might remember back to the Abbott/Turnbull vote when Fran Bailiey couldn’t make it because she’d just had surgery.

    The rules for both parties are seriously out of date, no doubt they wree created when people got around by horse and buggy and no-one had telephones. It should be possible to arrange a phone hook-up or a courier-delivered secure vote.

  34. deflationite

    I think Greentard is more in the Tony Bartuccio dancer mold.

  35. ShowsOn

    [Gillard’s hatred quotient will rise after this and will be reflected over the next two or three weeks polls. And those who were previously soft Liberal voters will be confirmed Liberal voters.]
    Gillard talks about unity, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she kicks at least 2 out of McLelland, Bowen and Ferguson from cabinet.

  36. gusface

    dedalus

    yep

    in a funny ol way

    kev has done the party the best service evah

  37. mexicanbeemer

    TP – I may have missed it but I am yet to see your response to the question I put to you about your response to what various public servants have said about the difficulties of working with Rudd when he was PM?

  38. Gary

    [Gillard talks about unity, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she kicks at least 2 out of McLelland, Bowen and Ferguson from cabinet.]
    Rudd talks of unity too. We’ll see if he walks the walk.

  39. mexicanbeemer

    There is a strong argument for them to be removed from cabinet due to performance or due to the strong performance of non cabinet members who may have earn the right to a cabinet post.

    Lets not forget that Jules has rejected Albo resignation and rightfully so

  40. Dr John

    BB – did you shovel the turds into the plastic bag on the walk?
    I don’t, as I consider it is my old democratic right not to – and I don’t complain about my nature strip or the little bags I find in my rubbish bin when I haven’t immediately wheeled it in after collection.
    BB I also know someone who occasionally puts their dog turds in Andrew Robbs letterbox as they walk past – ooh theyr awful

  41. Greensborough Growler

    Bad news for TP, even the local crocs are voting for Gillard.

    http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2012/02/26/290761_ntnews.html

  42. Boerwar

    SO
    The person who failed to meet Cabinet standards is gone. Mr Bowen has earned the right to try some more in Immigration. He should be able to get it right sooner or later. Mr McClellan is doing extremely well as the Federal Minister for Doing Sweet Eff All about emergencies. And Mr Ferguson’s failed pursuit of the clean coal mirage also clearly warrants a further period of support. Come to think about it, like attracts like?

  43. Jackol

    Gillard talks about unity, but it wouldn’t surprise me if she kicks at least 2 out of McLelland, Bowen and Ferguson from cabinet.

    I’ll partially agree with you – I suspect she will use the opportunity to really get McLelland out that she started to do before, but the same factional numbers presumably mean she won’t want to upset the right too much, and “Unity” is a popular look at the moment … so if Chris Bowen and Mar’n Ferguson are both willing to still be ministers under Julia Gillard I suspect they will both still have jobs come Monday.

  44. Boerwar

    GG

    I checked with Bluey and he reckons that if they truly want to win the next election all the Rudd supporters should rally to tomorrow’s winner by voting for her in the first round.

  45. zoomster

    Why is Greentard in an all woman dance class, when he’s said he’s got a wife?

    Or is he the instructor?

  46. feeney

    I never thought that Labor members/supporters hated each other so much.

    No wonder the party is doomed at the next election.

  47. gusface

    b

    only comment on tomorrow

    odds are firming that kev will pike it

    that said, i think 18 may be a tad optimistic if he does front up

  48. kezza2

    It’s so fkn sad, isn’t it.

    for all Rupe’s gazillions, and all the videos of him working out,
    he still looks no different to my father at the same age.

    Old, stuck in the past, past it.

    Still wields influence but, slowly but surely, being patronised

    We don’t believe a word he says.

    It must be killing him.

  49. ShowsOn

    [SO
    The person who failed to meet Cabinet standards is gone. Mr Bowen has earned the right to try some more in Immigration.]
    Bowen doesn’t WANT Immigration! He tried to get out of it, but Gillard wouldn’t let him. Leaving him in immigration is a form of punishment.

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