Couple more things:
Probably should have checked the ReachTEL site when discussing the Courier-Mail’s reporting on polling done for Katter’s Australian Party over the past few days. The full results for Hinchinbrook and Beaudesert are available there (external party polling, I guess you could call it). They show the KAP’s Jeff Knuth (once a One Nation MP, and whose brother Shane is the KAP’s member for Dalrymple) doing well but not quite well enough in Hinchinbrook, and a tight race between KAP incumbent Aidan McLindon and LNP challenger Jon Krause in Beaudesert. However, results are not provided for the Mount Isa poll referred to yesterday.
Heavy storm damage has given Anna Bligh an opportunity to play to her strengths in Townsville, where Labor is at risk of losing Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra. This also coincides nicely with Bligh’s blitz of visiting 50 electorates in five days, reprising a tactic which appeared to work remarkably well for her at the last election.
My guess as to the result. I’m tipping Labor to lose everything on a margin of up to 8.5 per cent, though no doubt the swing will not be quite as clean as that and I’ll be wrong on a fair few seats either side. I’m giving Labor the benefit of the doubt in Thuringowa (8.5 per cent) because of the Townsville storms and Mulgrave (8.1 per cent) because Curtis Pitt is due for a sophomore surge. No rabbit out of the hat for Kate Jones in Ashgrove. I’ve been blowing hot and cold over Katter’s Australia Party, but their 8 per cent showing in Galaxy has switched me to hot: One Nation managed three seats on similar numbers in 2001. I’ve never been in much doubt that Shane Knuth would win Dalrymple, and I’m giving them Mount Isa and Nanango as well. Nobody’s discussed the three sitting independents much that I’ve seen, but I suspect Chris Foley and Peter Wellington might be in trouble in Maryborough and Nicklin. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt though. Totals: LNP 64, Labor 19, KAP 3, Independents 3.