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Newspoll: 52-48 to Liberal in South Australia

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has published its quarterly South Australian state results, which presumably portends something for Western Australia shortly. It shows South Austral

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GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has published its quarterly South Australian state results, which presumably portends something for Western Australia shortly. It shows South Australia continuing to look a different political planet from New South Wales and Queensland, with Premier Jay Weatherill enjoying honeymoon personal ratings and voting intention figures that would be the envy of his counterparts across the land. Not that Labor is actually ahead: they trail 52-48 on two-party preferred and their primary vote is an unimpressive 34 per cent, compared with 40 per cent for the Liberals (all unchanged on the previous poll, with the Greens up two to 11 per cent). The former result is nonetheless what Labor was able to win an election with in 2010, albeit that the redistribution commissioners will shortly be charged with the task (which I don’t envy them) of redrawing the map in such a way as to level Labor’s advantage.

Some of the shine has come off Weatherill since his debut survey, with his disapproval rating up nine points, but this is off a very low base (14 per cent) and mostly at the expense of the large “don’t know” rating. His approval rating, though down four, is still at a robust 47 per cent. Correspondingly, the poll makes grim reading for Isobel Redmond. As well as not delivering the Liberals voting intention figures of they kind they’ve been growing accustomed to across the country, her once formidable personal ratings have taken a big knock: approval down six points to 43 per cent and disapproval up four to 34 per cent. She has also lost further ground to Weatherill as preferred premier, now trailing 46-23 compared with 45-27 last time.

The poll was conducted throughout January to March from a sample of 870, with a margin of error somewhere between 3 and 3.5 per cent.

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18 comments

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ShowsOn
Guest

It is obvious that the Liberals are still completely divided. Michelle Lensink has the numbers to be Deputy Leader of the Liberals in the L.C., but she doesn’t have the numbers to get a shadow ministry! So she is a weird front / back bencher.

Rational Leftist
Guest
I see Steven Marshall as a potential Lib leader. Perhaps in 2018, if the Libs don’t win next election. He’s a decent performer, an inner Adelaide non-reactionary Lib and a fresh face. Sure, he represents a marginal district but the (cosmopolitan and traditionally more sympathetic to the left) constituents of the seat of Norwood seem to like him and want him to stay around. Just remember: South Australians like their Lib leaders to be sensible and moderate small-Ls and small-Cs. That’s one of the major reasons why leaders like Redmond and Brown did well, yet others like Hamilton-Smith, Evans and… Read more »
sykesie
Guest
I’m surprised no one has mentioned Rob Chapman (soon to be former CEO St George bank) as a potential “Campbell Newman” style ring-in from the outside. He could potentially be the game-changer for the Liberals. As it stands at the moment, we could see a repeat of the 2002 state election where one side slides into government by a bee’s donger. As William says, it will be interesting to see how they re-draw the boundaries, I would say its virtually impossible to make it a completely even playing-field mainly because of Adelaide’s geography (hemmed in by the sea on the… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest

[BoP@13 Absolutely. Described as the stupidest bit of non-corrupt electoral law in the world by a local politics prof. Both Labor and Liberal supported it.]

It was a reaction to the malaise of the government winning the election in 1990, while losing the 2PP popular vote. It was meant to be “more democratic” but it’s really systemic gerrymandering that punishes marginal MPs for excelling at the polls.

If they were serious about making parliament truly reflective, they would institute some form of PR but that idea suits neither major party in our “winner take all” lower house 2 party system!

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking

DL@12 I was told this by a Liberal staffer so I checked with a Labor staffer to find out you’re right. Sorry. Why a local Liberal would claim him is beyond me…

BoP@13 Absolutely. Described as the stupidest bit of non-corrupt electoral law in the world by a local politics prof. Both Labor and Liberal supported it.

Bird of paradox
Guest
Got a question about this bit too. [ albeit that the redistribution commissioners will shortly be charged with the task (which I don’t envy them) of redrawing the map in such a way as to level Labor’s advantage. ] How do they deal with Frome? Part of Labor’s ‘unfair’ advantage comes from the fact that they ‘won’ Frome at the 2010 election. Sure, they came a distant third, but as a 2-party margin, they just managed to beat the Libs (by a much smaller margin than Geoff Brock did in the real world). Trying to balance an 18.5% primary vote… Read more »
Danny Lewis
Guest

Independently Thinking: I think you’ll find Simon Brewer is a Laborite.

I’ve known him for years and his politics are definitely left of centre.

Bird of paradox
Guest
[ SA Labor will lose the next election in a landslide, the NSW ALP model of renewal no longer works, and most smart human being can see it. ] NSW disease, eh? There was a hell of a lot wrong with NSW Labor, and that cancer has migrated to federal politics a bit, but I’m not so sure about the other states. It’ll be the NSW model if they suddenly dump Weatherill without letting him go to an election. Every other state, even Tassie who are onto their fourth Labor premier in a row, have let each new premier have… Read more »
Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
Never been told off before on here – not sure to be honoured or embarrassed, or both. Mind you, I have seen worse things written about especially Coalition MPs in this blog but I accept the edit. Okay, I will amend that: [Holdfast Bay Mayor Ken Rollond (at least I get the spelling right), is clearly not a starter for the Liberal leadership, being well into his 70s.] I will also add Onkaparinga Mayor, Lorraine Rosenberg, who was a Liberal one term State MP, is also a non-starter being in her late 60s and having her hands full with one… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest

I will also add that with Tony Abbott as PM, Labor may get an advantage in a close contest, especially with the perceived need to have some resistance against Canberra.

Not definite but possible.

Rational Leftist
Guest
There is an interesting paradox with Isobel Redmond. She’s the leader who probably has the best chance to win in 2014, yet at the same time has the loosest of grips on the job. It’s actually laughable that many in the party are thinking of going back to MHS, a man that could barely break past 45 on the 2PP. Redmond is the reason the party almost won in 2010 and have a decent shot in 2014. If they dump her, they will lose the election. Fortunately for South Australians, both parties probably have put their best candidates as leader,… Read more »
Wakefield
Guest

William. Noting comment 4 above – suggest you delete the relevant out of order comment re Rolland in 3.

Outsider
Guest
Dovif – a brave call two years out! Yes, on 52/48, better for the Liberals than Labor. But the situation for Labor in SA is nothing like that of NSW or Qld, and the political landscape will shift over the next 2 years. But the way things are going for Labor across the board at the moment, I can’t see Weatherill holding on, but nor do I see a landslide looming. Post Rann/Foley, a lot of the hostility towards the Government has evaporated, and the Liberal leadership issue will continue to hold them back. And Premier Redmond is hardly a… Read more »
dovif
Guest

SA Labor will lose the next election in a landslide, the NSW ALP model of renewal no longer works, and most smart human being can see it.

As for how bad isobelle is, compared with almost every other Liberal premiers and opposition leader, she is bad

But Julia Gillard would sell out a Kevin Rudd for those numbers

floorer
Guest

On the otherhand I voted Liberal in a SA election for the first time ever because of Redmond.I like what she has to say,a modern unencumbered woman.No Redmond,I’m off. It must be hard to keep coming up with stuff for four years in opposition.I’d like Ken Rolland to get a chance to reply to the above commentator…..

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
This poll shows one thing in a big way and that is “Invisobel” Redmond has been a complete flop as Liberal leader. The problem with the Liberals is that the other leadership aspirants have more fur on them than a post hibernation bear. Previous leader and former SAS Major, Martin Hamilton-Hyphen-Smith, generally ran the party better than others, but his naivety on the dodgy documents affair and his megalomaniac approach to the leadership turned off half of the Liberal MPs, and I can assure readers that there is no public clamouring for his return like a Kevin Rudd. However, Major… Read more »
Karen
Guest

I’ve known Jay for a long time. He’s a fantastic human being and has the smarts and charisma to carry the State for another Labor term. If I was back in my home state, SA, I’d happilly vote vote for him in both houses, instead of the Labor/Green split I currently favour.

my say
Guest

Well seems fed, labor may not have tooo many worries here then

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