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Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition's two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for

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Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

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6396 comments

6,396 thoughts on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

  1. bluegreen

    [‘It’s not always easy,” she said. ”You don’t, in accord with those great Labor values, just get to do the easy popular things. Sometimes you have to do the outright, very, very hard things, the downright hard things.”]

    The cynicism and callowness of this statement is palpable. Shame she couldn’t remember this in June 2010.

  2. victoria

    bg

    Get over it. Rudd was a dud

  3. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I would be careful about jumping up and down over who likes whom on facebook. I have liked some ‘interesting’ pages on fb so I could post my stolen dogs photo + reward on there. It does nit mine I actually like them, I only FB ‘like’ them. e.g. I ‘liked’ a tattoo FB group. but there is no way in hell I am getting a tattoo.

    In interpreting the use of social media, you can’t just jump to simplistic conclusions.

  4. lizzie

    bluegreen @ 5701

    I think she did a very hard thing in June 2010 and she’s suffered for it.

  5. Von Kirsdarke

    Good news from the UK, Labour is making solid gains in the local elections so far.

  6. Gary

    bg is on a mission.

  7. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    bg
    “do the hard things” including taking over from Kevin Rudd,because that is what the caucus wants.

  8. davidwh

    Victoria looks like I have may have been somewhat premature in thinking the media will leave the story alone while the investigation plays out.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/thomson-still-of-interest-says-police-commander/story-fn59niix-1226346256036

    Thomson still of interest, says police commander

  9. Gary

    The crying over spilt milk is getting a bit boring.

  10. victoria

    Gary

    Agreed. Scroll by is the motto from now on.

  11. guytaur

    [Brown and Milne announcement of Peter Wish Wilson as new Senator :Coming UP News 24]

  12. Gary

    [Thomson still of interest, says police commander]
    This just gives me the impression the case is not open and shut against Thomson.

  13. Space Kidette

    Aguirre,

    I am getting excited about his budget reply speech. I think there may be a few new economic theories created and quite a few traditional ones trashed.

  14. victoria

    davidwh

    I hope you have come to the realisation that the media is on a mission of regime change

  15. guytaur

    [Greens presser now on]

  16. OzPol Tragic

    [Good to see that people including from here can have an impact.]

    Indeed. I LUV Internet!

    We’ve lost the interaction with the most senior pollies that was part of the old political scene: Open attendance Town Hall meetings full of hecklers – witty Menzies was a treat to hear & watch, though I didn’t vote for him. So were Harry Holt & Gorton. And Gough (& Margaret), and Hawkie. What I best remember about Keating (trying to sell GST Mk1 in the mid 80s) are the superb suits and his mesmerising artist/ musician slim, sun-bronzed hands. Most superbly turned out Aussie Male I’ve ever seen – and one of the wittiest.

    Wannabes did stand on wooden boxes on city & important suburban corners, to spruik & were well & truly heckled; on railway stations as the early morning, sardine-packed overcrowded work-school trains came in & pulled out.

    This is about the limit of my contribution to the political debate now, and even that goes on vacation when my little ‘grey’ calls get tossed.

    I continue to be grateful to you all, esp. William for providing the forum.

    I hope, with the NBN, we soon have a virtual skype-style forum when we all gather over lunch – as in a 1960 uni refec – and bang tables as we argue. OpenU UK has had them for ages. With teleTutes the the best on offer here, I was sooo jealous!

  17. guytaur

    [Bob Brown: I am totally delighted]

  18. Von Kirsdarke

    I had a feeling that it’d be Whish-Wilson, since he was No.2 on the Senate Ballot for the Greens in 2010.

  19. BH

    bg – if you call it easy to ask Rudd to step aside because Caucus demanded (Kev had only 10 votes) then I’d like to see what you call hard. It was a nightmare scenario for JG who didn’t want that call to be made so soon.

    In the meantime – look over here Abbott, Hockey, Robb & Peter Reith – also ABC24

    [Wayne Swan ‏ @SwannyDPM
    IMF head Christine @Lagarde says Australia’s economic leadership is a positive example to the world]
    http://t.co/ClwLUkRE

  20. Space Kidette

    [Bernard Keane ‏ @BernardKeane

    Peter Whish-Wilson will replace Bob Brown as Greens Senator from Tasmania]

  21. guytaur

    [Bob Brown: Peter will be a gold medal senator]

  22. davidwh

    victoria I have been in no doubt that sections of the media have wanted that since September 2010. I just don’t accept that the media bias is a widespread as most PB’ers do. Personally I think Labor is the only party capable of governing with the current numbers and it would have been a disaster if the independents supported Abbott. Not that there was even any chance of that.

  23. victoria

    davidwh

    What is absolutely hilarious is that the conduct of the fibs during the past few weeks have pushed Wilkie back to the govt!!

  24. BH

    SK – reply to Hockey with this –

    [Australia’s renowned economic leadership will continue to extend its global influence in years to come, the head of the International Monetary Fund says.

    IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told the Global Foundation’s Australian summit that the nation had always shown “real leadership” in the turbulent, ever-fluctuating global economy.
    The past five years have put heavier financial stress on everyone and created a greater demand for expertise and innovative, collaborative thinking on economics, she told the Melbourne summit via video link from Washington on Thursday.

    Australia was critical in combating this attitude with its dependably strong, practical, positive and progressive leadership, she said.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/australias-influence-on-the-rise-lagarde-20120503-1y1wk.html

  25. Aguirre

    SK:

    I am getting excited about his budget reply speech. I think there may be a few new economic theories created and quite a few traditional ones trashed.

    Indeed. I’m hoping he can dig up an individual country for each economic indicator – eg Hong Kong’s welfare bill, Chad’s GDP, Monaco’s unemployment rate, Laos’s minimum wage – and claim that we’re a failure because we can’t match all of them.

    I believe a very large proportion of their original $50B in savings were due to not having an NBN. I’ll be very keen to see how he thinks we can still save that money.

  26. guytaur

    [Milne: Value adding in rural and regional areas is Green Policy]

  27. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I offer this comment as an example of a Coalition supporters point of view on Abbott.
    From the Drum, in reply to
    [Demolition man: the cost of sledgehammer politics

    66 Comments

    Robert Simms ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3987612.html?WT.svl=theDrum

    [Albo :

    03 May 2012 5:00:24pm

    Pathetic cliched offering really, Robert !

    Democracy is doomed because of Abbott ! He plays too hard ! Its a race to the bottom !

    What you really meant to say I would think is that Abbott is on the other team that you don’t support !

    The reality is Abbott is one of the few people in Parliament doing his job perfectly !
    Since he took over the Coalition leadership in November 2009, he has turned around his floundering Party from a miserable 36% 2pp to a landslide position of 59% 2pp today. He has seen off one PM and is on the verge of seeing off a second PM. There are no leadership rumblings in his party, despite all desperate left wing attempts to generate some !
    He is a married man with 3 daughters and a mortgage. He is a volunteer bush fire fighter and volunteer life saver. He is a regular supporter of charitable events. He is a fitness fanatic and sports enthusiast. He spends two weeks of his holiday time every year working in indigenous communities. He loves his lesbian sister ! He is a tireless worker in his role as Opposition leader. His previous ministerial experience encompasses many portfolios of responsibility.

    Seems to me he has all the credentials, qualities and leadership experience that most in the Australian Electorate might identify with and see as perfectly suited to the PM role !
    My guess is that democracy will remain alive and well and probably thrive even more with a proven performer in a competent government !

    ]
    It is not that ‘Albo’ is voting for a dangerous racist, misogynist, policy-averse political opportunist just so his preferred party get into power. He actually admires Abbott.

  28. mari

    [GuardianData ‏ @GuardianData
    Councillors tally at 40 results: Con 206 (-102), Lab 341 (+142), LD 54 (-36), UKIP 2 (+2), Grn 6 (+2) #vote2012]

    Think the Poms have learnt their lesson, but of course UK has 5 year terms

  29. guytaur

    Presser over.

  30. davidwh

    I don’t believe that Wilkie would have ever supported Abbott in a no confidence motion victoria. He was just enjoying a bit of payback and trying to leverage his position. Abbott can wish until the cows come home but he is never going to get the independents to help him force a change in government unless the government completely goes off the rails.

    The next election will be somethime in 2013 unless something happens in the meantime to change the balance of numbers and personally I don’t wisk ill on anyone to make that happen.

  31. Danny Lewis

    Yeah; well I have a couple of further quesions.

    If this was a going-away present for one of Slipper’s staff, signed by the LOTO, why did it have to go to Slipper’s office via the Manager of Opposition Business?

    Why on earth wouldn’t the LOTO’s office liaised directly with Slipper’s office, rather than going via an intermediary?

    Bizarre.

    Also, we now have the timing on the “bottle of wine” meeting; it was 3 days after the drinkies. However, we still don’t know the timing of the 3rd meeting referred to and whether it was before or after the drinkies.

    That might seem a trivial point, but if it was AFTER drinkies, we then have a situation where a staffer who has worked for Slipper had not met the Manager of Opposition Business in the first 4 months of his employment, but then suddenly meets with him 3 TIMES IN 3 DAYS, one month before lodging a complaint against his boss, (and apparently not since then) and we are supposed to think there is nothing too see here?

    Pig’s arse.

  32. roaldan1000

    I am not a fan of suggesting what other people should and shouldn’t do on forums, but I will do it anyway. It does seem to me that it takes two people to have an argument. If people are over the constant reiterations of individual positions on “Rudd was better than Gillard, no Gillard is better than Rudd”, then just stop responding.

    There was really interesting hour or so on here last night when people exchanged opinions (from different perspectives) and information about issues. It was free of bickering and pretty respectful.

  33. Thornleigh Labor Man

    Gillard punishing sole parents – does this woman think she’s the next Margaret Thatcher, or is she out to steal votes off Tony Abbott?
    I’m astounded that a Labor Government would formulate something so mean and nasty.

  34. Son of foro

    [Pig’s arse.]

    Well put.

  35. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    What I am pointing out is that conservatives are not necessarily holding their noses and supporting Abbott to get back into power, they actually LIKE and ADMIRE him.Don’t think they perceive him aswe progressives do, but are just compromising their values to get into government. Abbott matches the conservative values, and imo will only be dropped if he is a big electoral liability. Even then many conservatives would mourn his loss to the leadership.

  36. guytaur

    STORY HIGHLIGHTS
    Australian media regulators are “digesting” the blistering UK report against Rupert Murdoch
    The report said News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch was “not a fit person” to run a major company
    So far the controversy hasn’t hit Australia, where Murdoch’s media empire was born
    New Corp. runs 70% of newspapers in Australia and the national paper, the Australian
    (CNN) — The Australian media regulatory agency is “digesting” the blistering report from British lawmakers that said News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch was “not a fit person” to run a major international company.
    “The ACMA is reviewing the British MPs committee report but is not intending to make any further comment at this stage,” said a spokesperson for the Australian Communication and Media Authority (ACMA).

    http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/03/business/australia-murdoch-review/index.html?hpt=hp_bn1

  37. Thornleigh Labor Man

    More common sense to counter the pro-Gillard sentiments here:
    http://afr.com/p/opinion/the_gillard_factor_makes_labor_pariah_QH80zcdxJ0zyx8AJldG9GL

  38. poroti

    [Elections 2012: Live results dashboard

    Summary results for the local elections, as they come in.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/interactive/2012/may/03/local-elections-2012-live-results

  39. davidwh

    Not me but it’s not going to happen Puff.

  40. Danny Lewis

    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRHHHHHHHHH!

    Nothing *to* see here.

    I swear it was a typo, not a brain fail 😉

  41. guytaur

    DL

    There is a lot of it going around today. Maybe the fourth is with you.

  42. Gary

    Heaven forbid that some here like Gillard. What a crime.

  43. OzPol Tragic

    [the point re Scott Morrison’s brand of Christianity, that I seem to remember that Adolph Hitler was a devout Christian too.]

    No he wasn’t. From memory, he’d lapsed while still living in Vienna. Like most RWers, he played the Christianity card whenever he thought it might be to his gain. Though he is recorded somewhere (?H’s Table Talk) saying wtte that there was no way anyone could have convinced his mother not to go to mass.

  44. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    tlm
    I can’t understand cutting the access to o/s travel. I have not read up on the single parent changes, but in my area the problem is pretty moot because often another pregnancy occurs when the youngest child reaches the cut-off age. I am not blaming anyone for doing this, but I am pointing out how policies can have unexpected effects if policy-makers do not think through the possible sociological responses.

  45. guytaur

    ABC highlighting the changes to welfare are to remove Howard exemptions.

  46. BH

    Here’s a great laugh and how I wish JG could hand this one out at the MidWinter Ball

    [Maybe she could, with the right material. And right about now, wouldn’t she just love a little payback on the press gallery?

    So we commissioned this routine for the PM from one of Australia’s seasoned comedy writers, Richard Thorp.]

    http://thehoopla.com.au/pollies-laugh/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=May+4+The+Hoopla&

  47. smithe

    [Smaug
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 7:45 am | Permalink
    I just sent a complaint to the ABC. Possum pointed out on twitter a URL on the Justin ABC site included the term gillard-fluff.

    How the f*ck can you explain this url used for an online news story as anything but political bias and extremely unprofessional journalism. This is in the context of a policy announcement. The responsible staff member should be sacked. I demand an on line apology, absolute and utter partisan bullsh*t.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-03/gillard-fluff/3990152%5D

    Seems to be gone now from the link posted. Guess they pulled it.

    Does anyone have the original article?

  48. zoidlord

    @TLM/5733

    I disagree, Parents should be able to work, while Students, DSP and Pensioners should not be touched.

  49. rishane

    [More common sense to counter the pro-Gillard sentiments here:
    http://afr.com/p/opinion/the_gillard_factor_makes_labor_pariah_QH80zcdxJ0zyx8AJldG9GL%5D

    Strange definition of common sense you have there… 😉

  50. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    DavidWH
    That is what I think. In fact I think the L/NP will keep him even if he becomes a poisoned chalice for them. He is too good a match to their intrinsic values.

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