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Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition's two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for

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Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

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6396 comments

6,396 thoughts on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

  1. OzPol Tragic

    Could you tell me the reasons why would anyone decline a Police Interview?

    Because they want to do everything possible to clear there name.

    About time you read up on your democratic rights as a citizen. As below, that right was around when Henry VIII was trying to divorce Queen Catherine to marry his pregnant mistress (1530s). You want a different law, try migrating to N Korea. It’s sure not that regime’s practice!

    (a) a person has the right to remain silent – had that before Henry VIII tried to have Thoma More impeached for remaining silent instead of answering questions at his trial

    (b) Thomson hasn’t been charged for any crime, so may decline an interview unless arrested

    (c) if one isn’t charged, then the police are on a fishing expedition

    (d) not going = no verbaling

    (e) anyway, this is just another Liberal attempt to smear Thomson, with O’Farrell’s help – AGAIN.

    (f) Although the Oz media tries very hard to impose it, we haven’t reached Kafka’s nightmare state. Yet.

    (g) Shouldn’t you be defending every Australian’s democratic right, not trying to undermine it for political power’s sake?

  2. poroti

    lizzie @5792

    I’m thinking…. http://tiny.cc/lmhrdw

  3. Bushfire Bill

    [Lizzie Howard, Rudd and Gillard all had meetings with Murdoch.]

    You forgot to add: Howard said “yes”, Rudd said “Yes, and would you like Australia TV?” and Gillard said “Piss off Rupey. Stop writing crap.”

  4. bemused

    Aguirre @ 5797

    The complicating factor being that many of them seem to think it’s a tax on their wages.

    I just hope the govt invites wage earners to compare their payslips immediately before and after 1 July. It will reveal:
    1. No ‘Carbon Tax’ deducted.
    2. Lower PAYG deductionfor most wage earners.
    3. Higher nett pay for most wage earners.

    These points will need to be hammered with all the relentlessness Phony did with his scare campaign.

  5. davidwh

    Aquirre that is true to some extent. Of couse that’s the matter Labor is hopeing will start to swing public opinion.

  6. Compact Crank

    Anyone still expecting a bounce in the Polls for the ALP from the Budget?

    I was of the opinion that the ALP couldn’t afford not to at least deliver a forecat of a surplus budget because breaking the Budget Surplus in 2012 promise would have been a negative. Now seeing who thy are pssing off in trying to deliver their promise I can’t imagine there’ll be any upside.

    This Budget wont be the last nail in the coffin – it’ll be the dirt landing on the coffin lid.

  7. Gary

    The public have shown in the past that once introduced and playing out an unpopular policy can turn out to be at least accepted and minds can change. GST anyone?

  8. my say

    http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/05/04/325221_tasmania-news.html

    Wish wilson a northerner, aswe southernes call them, bet this has a lottodowiththe pulp mill

    Not happy

    Use vote for bob inthe senate, second, no more votes from thss family,, for the greens

  9. Son of foro

    davidwh

    So it’s a GREAT BIG NEW COALITION TAX!

    Gotcha.

  10. Gary

    [Anyone still expecting a bounce in the Polls for the ALP from the Budget?]
    Hardly, it’s being presented as a horror budget by the government themselves. I don’t think it was ever designed to win votes.

  11. The Finnigans

    Samsung reignites wars with Galaxy S III – the next “revolution” in smartphone technology http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/samsung-reignites-smartphone-wars-with-galaxy-s-iii-20120504-1y2ri.html#ixzz1traWMlt7 Job be turning in his grave

  12. Bushfire Bill

    [I just hope the govt invites wage earners to compare their payslips immediately before and after 1 July. It will reveal:
    1. No ‘Carbon Tax’ deducted.
    2. Lower PAYG deductionfor most wage earners.
    3. Higher nett pay for most wage earners.

    These points will need to be hammered with all the relentlessness Phony did with his scare campaign.]

    Forgot to mention that on 2GB yesterday Chris Smith had the General Manager of Centrelink (“Hank” someone) on about Carbon Tax compensation.

    Hank gave chapter and verse on the entitlements and eligibility requirements for comnpensation, pointing out that it was automatic for anyone registered for Health Cards, dole, pensions etc. Said there were 9,000 people who hadn’t left bank account details and urged them to update so they could be paid as well.

    Smith tried like billy-o to find fault, but couldn’t. Eventually asked phone-ins to talk about other things beside Carbon Tax compensation.

    BIG backfire on Smith’s part. Hank made it all seem so easy and so simple: if you’re registered, you get the money without further ado. He also made mention of the fact that the CT was NOT deducted from wages etc. but was, in fact, in ADDITION to pensions and so on.

    Win for the government on that one. Hank was a cruisey guy, very upbeat and positive. Knew his brief and delivered it with devastating (or for Smith, disappointing) clarity.

  13. Bushfire Bill

    [ Anyone still expecting a bounce in the Polls for the ALP from the Budget?

    Hardly, it’s being presented as a horror budget by the government themselves. I don’t think it was ever designed to win votes.]

    No government has had a Budget bounce in years. The “Budget bounce” is a straw-man myth invented by commentators and government critics so they can say there wasn’t one.

  14. Son of foro

    [Mr Pyne responded to specific questions whether he had used the email address given to him, saying that he “did not email Mr Ashby after March 19th”.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-concedes-he-may-have-sent-email-20120504-1y2oh.html#ixzz1trbW2raX%5D

    Remember, Pyne received Ashby’s email at 11.02pm on the 19th. So did Pyne email Ashby on the 19th?

  15. OzPol Tragic

    Pyne concedes he may have sent email

    IMO, not the sort of thing that would easily slip one’s mind! Seems most Fairfax online readers aren’t swallowing the story.

    Update: Fairfax poll
    Poll: Do you believe the Coalition has assisted former Slipper staffer James Ashby?
    Yes. 77%
    No. 16%
    I don’t know. 7%

    Total votes: 35355.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pyne-concedes-he-may-have-sent-email-20120504-1y2oh.html

  16. Cuppa

    [Hardly, it’s being presented as a horror budget by the government themselves. I don’t think it was ever designed to win votes.]

    That’s right. Labor doesn’t use budgets to buy votes. The Liberals, however…

    Sydney Morning Herald, 25 April 2009:

    […according to {Peter Costello}: {John Howard} believed the public would be grateful to the government for new spending and vote accordingly.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/fiscal-feud-20090424-ai6z.html?page=-1

  17. rummel

    OzPol Tragic

    Calm down. I have agreed the man is within his rights to not talk to the police and funny enough, he has not been charged for anything so he does not even require to be innocent untill proven guilty. Still it does not look good to the public.

  18. Darn

    BB

    Thanks for your thoughtful and well written (as usual) post at 5770. I’m sure you have missed your calling as a journalist.

    In matters such as these I look forward to your summations and analyses to keep me up to date on things. Please keep up the good work.

  19. Gary

    [Still it does not look good to the public.]
    Neither does Pyne.

  20. al palster

    BB
    Spot on re budget bounce. Just ask Costello re 2007 – gave away billions in bribes, and didn’t move a vote. And you are right – commentators will say “Gillard fails budget test – no bounce”.

  21. davidwh

    Son of foro not sure the masses are quite seeing it that way. Look you can be happy in the knowledge that if Abbott does win in 2013 he is going to have an almost impossible job in delivering on his rollback promise. Like all leaders on climate change he will end up between a rock and a hard place. Not sure how he is going to deal with that problem. That could be good for a Labor win in 2017. 🙂

  22. BH

    [Win for the government on that one. Hank was a cruisey guy, very upbeat and positive. Knew his brief and delivered it with devastating (or for Smith, disappointing) clarity.]

    BB – The Govt. should use this bloke in ads about the compensation.

  23. Compact Crank

    @5807 – the GST had an election fought over it and was put in place to achieve actual, beleivable outcomes – give the states a growth tax, remove a number of ineeficient state taxes and provide income tax cuts – all were achieved. And the ALP had never Rolled them Back.

    The CO2 tax will not make any difference to the Global or Australian Climate – nil, nix, nada, nothing. The Public are not stupid.

  24. guytaur

    [Swan Presser due in a minute or two News 24]

  25. Gary

    [the GST had an election fought over it and was put in place to achieve actual, beleivable outcomes – give the states a growth tax, remove a number of ineeficient state taxes and provide income tax cuts – all were achieved. And the ALP had never Rolled them Back.]
    Check the TPP for that election. The Libs lost bulk seats and actually thought they were gone on election night. It was unpopular.

  26. Son of foro

    [That could be good for a Labor win in 2017.]

    Four elections in row!

  27. The Finnigans

    Wales will declare a 873Kms walking trail around its coast line this weekend. We cant even get a 10K trail around Sydney Harbour. Jezus

  28. Gary

    [The CO2 tax will not make any difference to the Global or Australian Climate – nil, nix, nada, nothing. The Public are not stupid.]
    You’re right, they’re not stupid and the one thing people hate is a government taking money from them and guess who is promising that.

  29. 1934pc

    [Lizzie Howard, Rudd and Gillard all had meetings with Murdoch.]

    I wonder if Murdoch asked her to drop the NBN, subsequent events prove JG said she would NOT!.

  30. davidwh

    SOF 🙂 we’ll see.

  31. janice2

    Bushfire Bill,
    Henk Jorghens is CentreLink’s CEO (?). He’s been there for yonks and, if I remember correctly, was in charge during the Howard era as well. CentreLink put out a quarterly info mag and he’s often to be heard on radio programmes, even Delroy where he takes callers’ questions and if they have a beef he always asks them to leave their details so he can follow up in detail.

  32. bemused

    BB @ 5812

    Forgot to mention that on 2GB yesterday Chris Smith had the General Manager of Centrelink (“Hank” someone) on about Carbon Tax compensation.

    Sounds like “Henk Jongen” I think. Seen him on TV and heard on radio before.

  33. my say

    davidwh Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    My Say Shellbell is b

    David postedd

    Not me david i was out all morning

  34. ajm

    Hank Kongen is the CEO of Centrelink. I would hope he would be across his brief!
    Don’t think he would exactly be available for the government to roll out at will however!

  35. davidwh

    My Say yes I erred and corrected shortly afterwards. The post was for MTBS.

  36. Dan Gulberry

    New post at The Daily Derp

    (with a hat tip to bludgers Space Kidette and BH)
    [How embarassment Joe. People who actually do know something about matters economic, prove to the world what a complete and utter buffoon you are, and how dangerous you and your fellow band of dunderheads pose a clear and present danger to the Australian economy and society. ]
    Joe Hockey Proves He Is A Buffoon – Again

  37. ajm

    Kongen – Jongen

  38. bemused

    janice2 @ 5831

    We need to sort out that name!

  39. Bushfire Bill

    [BB – The Govt. should use this bloke in ads about the compensation.]

    That is actually a brilliant idea. The 2GB-ites trust him.

  40. Meguire Bob

    Its over for abbott the slipper affair , cost him he has lost the integrity of the parliament

    If Abbott was to his word he would be resigning as the leader of the opposition now or as soon as the parliament resumes

    1- If this was Gillard and another member of the labor governemnt, has changed thier soties after dnying they knew anything

    Abbott would be doing an suspension of standing ordering

    for A) censure the prime minister and labor
    B) try to bring on a no confidence motion

    c) his usual rants on why there should be an election

    Abbott will not be the leader of the liberal party in 2013

  41. Meguire Bob

    stories sorry

  42. Boerwar

    Mr Kongen is a regular on radio where he takes listeners’ questions. He is an excellent bureaucrat, IMHO.

    He often reminds listeners of the policy context of bureaucratic rules and procedures in such a way as it all seems perfectly reasonable.

    He is polite, engaging and impressively across the chapter and verse of his the Centelink rules. Where the details of the caller’s problems are obscure or incomplete, phone numbers are taken and follow up is done.

  43. Meguire Bob

    i blame this keyboard

  44. guytaur

    [Swan Press Conference Now On]

  45. Boerwar

    Sorry, I thought ‘Kongen’ sounded strange. ‘Jongen’ it is. Literally translated from the Dutch, ‘Jongen’ would be something like a ‘Youth’.

  46. BH

    […according to {Peter Costello}: {John Howard} believed the public would be grateful to the government for new spending and vote accordingly.]

    Cuppa – Swannie should say ‘we helped you out during the GFC, we’re compensating you for the fixed price on pollutioon, but it seems you don’t want to give us credit for helping you, so here’s the hard stuff and see how you like that’.

    I mentioned to somebody yesterday that she would no longer have to pay income tax due to the new threshold. She had no idea and didn’t believe it so I sent her the information this morning and have had a response – ‘why haven’t I heard that on the news’.

  47. victoria

    MB

    Abbott would be blaming JG!!

  48. Schnappi

    Hank Jongren take my word

  49. Bushfire Bill

    Hank Jongen sounds media-savvy too. If he can go on 2GB, then he can do ads. Nice big smiley face and an upbeat chap, too:

    [“Similar to our talkback radio strategy of targeting radio stations with large, syndicated audience, our online strategy is to contribute to conversations in the places where people [are] congregating,” he said. “I have an account on Facebook and Twitter for interacting with media and radio outlets, and providing updates on services. It has allowed us to spread our messages further, while teaching us about keeping content targeted, interesting and relevant.

    “But, it’s not only about listening — you have to acknowledge and take action on the feedback you get. We respond to their service complaints and provide more information about payment requirements.”

    http://www.zdnet.com.au/twitter-the-new-talkback-radio-govt-339307019.htm

  50. Cuppa

    [The CO2 tax will not make any difference to the Global or Australian Climate – nil, nix, nada, nothing. The Public are not stupid.]

    The mechanism of putting a price on carbon is designed to make low emissions production/consumption more attractive, cheaper, preferable to dirty production/consumption. Thus bringing about a change in the behaviour of producers/consumers to take up the cleaner option.

    The government has never claimed (to my knowledge) that it will CHANGE THE CLIMATE. What it will do, is reduce the amount of carbon emissions going into the atmosphere.

    Cleaner air is good for all of us. That goes without saying. On the other hand, fearful reactionary conservativism that retards Australia’s entry to a competive position in the burgeoning global low-emissions economy, is not good.

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