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Tasmanian Politics

May 15, 2012

The latest semi-regular EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has produced a remarkable result, even accounting for its traditional tendency to overstate support for the Greens: parity between Labor and the Greens, who are both at 23% (respectively down four and up five), with the Liberals down three to 49%. On the question of preferred premier, Lara Giddings is down three to 21%, Will Hodgman down one to 43% and Nick McKim up two to 17%. The poll was conducted by telephone from a sample of 1000, with a margin of error of about 3%.

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10 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest
[There’s no regional breakdown.] Electorate breakdown in Table 4. Though those are really tiny sample sizes. What I do for my TT articles is merge them with the previous poll to create a larger sample, unless the previous poll was dramatically different. (I also adjust for the EMRS Green effect). Actually when I did this for the May poll and the February one, I got 13-6-5-1 as the sum of the most likely seat results, though the Libs were very close to getting another one in another three electorates (they had a 64 in Braddon in February which raises the… Read more »
Charles Richardson
Guest

Don’t apologise for the typos, Meher – I thought “the swing to the alive” was very evocative.

Mick Quinlivan
Guest

As these figures show the libs could get between 12 to 15 seats…… more likely 12 to 14
this could still lead to a hung parliament……. with a very strong Green vote the libs will be always at a disadvantage in Tasmania

meher baba
Guest

PS. Sorry about the typos. PB isn’t a great site for iPhone users.

meher baba
Guest
There’s no regional breakdown. My gut feeling is that, while the swing to the alive has occurred in all areas, it is far stronger in the north. The Lins need to get 13 seats to form a fragioe majority government. One would assume they will get 3 in each of Bass and Braddon. They can’t conceivably get more than 2 in Denison (indeed, if the Lib vote continues to decline as we get nearer the election, they will need to work to hang on to the two they’ve got:: neither Groom or Archer have set the world on fire in… Read more »
Utopia
Guest

Thanks, that puts it into perspective for us non-Tasmanians!

Kevin Bonham
Guest

[Kevin:

How would this translate into seats?]

Roughly 14-15 Lib, 6-7 Labor, 4-5 Green, 0-1 Independent.

That’s with due adjustment for the EMRS Green vote overestimate factor – and assuming we have 25 seats not 35.

Graeme
Guest

12:6:6 with one for Krishna. Imagine Labor the junior partner in a Green govt… Or two mini opposition leaders.

And Greek electoral politics looks fluid?

Just two years ago we thought Labor’s core vote wast 35%. These 20s aren’t just opinion polls – we’ve had two major State elections plus the BCC election.

Utopia
Guest

Kevin:

How would this translate into seats?

Kevin Bonham
Guest
I think this is the first time Labor and the Greens have been equal on EMRS’s new headline figure; in Feb 2011 they were equal on the old one but not on the one being now used. All the same given the well-known issues with EMRS and the Green vote (caused by them redistributing a high undecided response that in practice does not include significant numbers of Green voters) something like 27 Labor and 19 Green is a more realistic reading than 23 all. An interesting feature of this one is the high indie vote but I think it is… Read more »
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