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Tasmanian Politics

Aug 8, 2012

The latest semi-regular EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has Labor recovering four points from a disastrous result in May, when it was equal with the Greens on 23%. However, there is little change in support for the Liberals (steady on 49%) and the Greens (down one to 22%), and the changes on preferred premier are likewise within the margin of error: Lara Giddings up a point to 22%, Will Hodgman up two to 45% and Nick McKim down two to 15%. The sample on the poll is 853 and the margin of error about 3.5%, although EMRS has been noted for producing inflated results for the Greens.

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10 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

Me waffling about as much as I can about this one given the lack of detail:

http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/gap-narrows-but-liberals-still-cruising/

Note that a subsidiary question about same-sex marriage shows that undecided voters are at least as close to Labor attitudes on that issue than they are to Liberal attitudes. Indeed the full data on the same-sex marriage question reveals they are closer.

I have seen the full data on the same-sex marriage question but I do not have permission to publish it.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
[Kevin, I find your prediction of 16 seats for the Libs interesting: this would require them to win 4 out of 5 in either Bass or Braddon (or perhaps both, as I am pretty confident they’ can’t get more than 2 in Denison).] Not a prediction but a possibility at the time. Using a rolled average of the February and May electorate breakdowns, adjusted to account for EMRS overestimating the Green vote (I take all the undecided votes EMRS redistributes to the Greens and split them between the majors), 4-1-0 in Braddon was possible and so was 3-1-1 in Denison.… Read more »
meher baba
Guest
blackburnpseph: no question that Southern Tassie has a lot to fear economically in the next little while. When (if) Will Hodgman and the Libs get into government, we can expect a Campbell Newman-style attack on the public sector (which has already been significantly razored under Giddings). This will adversely affect the south. And then any savings which eventuate will be pumped into saving Gunns Pty Ltd (assuming it’s still going) and generally helping the forestry sector, which is more significant in the north of the state. So, effectively, a redistribution of $$$ from south to north. The extent to which… Read more »
blackburnpseph
Guest

Interesting discussion on ABC radio last night about car sales figures in July. Year on year up 15+% in WA, NT and Qld, up 8-9% in NSW and Vic, up 7% in SA but down 6% in Tasmania – that and something I read last week about the % dependent on welfare – somthing like 35-40% – shows Tasmania is in economic trouble. Southern Tasmania in particular must be hugely dependent on either government transfer payments (social security, pensions) or direct public service salaries (state, federal, university).

meher baba
Guest
Kevin, I find your prediction of 16 seats for the Libs interesting: this would require them to win 4 out of 5 in either Bass or Braddon (or perhaps both, as I am pretty confident they’ can’t get more than 2 in Denison). What sort of 2pp vote do you think they would need to secure to win 4 seats in a 5 seat electorate? I would have assumed at least 65% and possibly close to 70%. But I accept that the Tassie system is tricky and I might be wrong about this. 65% in Bass and Braddon seems to… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
These numbers are very similar to the previous poll, with Labor up slightly mainly at the expense of “Independents”. However, there is often a fake surge in “Independent” support in EMRS May polling caused by confusion with Legislative Council elections in which prominent candidates are usually indies. Based on electorate breakdowns (rolling average of two polls to improve sample size) my analysis of the previous poll was that the Liberals were on course for majority government “if an election was held now” with a minimum of 13 seats but a reasonable chance of up to 16. Changing to the 35… Read more »
meher baba
Guest
This thread is looking a bit neglected, so I thought I might throw my two bobs’ worth in. I doubt that the Libs are overjoyed about these results. The Labor Government is generally very unpopular and the Libs have been running with a strategy of making themselves the smallest of small targets. And yet, as the post above notes, these polling numbers are not likely to translate into anything better than victory by the narrowest possible margin of seats. And if, as the election looms closer, there is a swing back to Labor on the part of people who are… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest

7 member electorates would probably yield the Libs 18 seats, which would just be a majority in a 35 member house (as 13 seats just is one in a 25 member house)

Mind you, we’re just universally applying swings here. You don’t know how it will break down come election day (assuming this polling is still correct at the time)

Rational Leftist
Guest

[My ‘look at the election results in that light’ would result in something like Liberal 13, ALP 6 , Greens 5. and 1 up for ‘grabs’ by the joy of preference flows (Denison). Despite such a large shift of intention, it seems possible that the result could be quite close.]

13 seats is a majority government. In a PR house, I think the Libs would take that result.

Disasterboy
Guest

Seems like the main difference from the last election is pretty much 10% vote shift from ALP to Liberal.
My ‘look at the election results in that light’ would result in something like Liberal 13, ALP 6 , Greens 5. and 1 up for ‘grabs’ by the joy of preference flows (Denison). Despite such a large shift of intention, it seems possible that the result could be quite close.
They really did needed to increase the electorates to 7 member ones.

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