Menu lock

Victorian Politics

Aug 27, 2012

Newspoll: 50-50 in Victoria

Troy Bramston on Sky News reports Labor has drawn level on two-party preferred in Victoria, after the Coalition held on to a 51-49 lead in March-April (the last time we had a result fro

Troy Bramston on Sky News reports Labor has drawn level on two-party preferred in Victoria, after the Coalition held on to a 51-49 lead in March-April (the last time we had a result from Newspoll, which usually goes bi-monthly in New South Wales and Victoria). This is the first time Labor has been even with the Coalition on two-party preferred in any poll, state or federal, since the federal poll of March 18-20 last year. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens. The Greens are down four points, and while this follows a three-point spike in their favour last time, it’s still their lowest Newspoll rating since July-August 2009. Their actual election result in November 2010 was only 11.2%, so it may be that Newspoll has a problem with overstating their support. The results for the major parties at the 2010 election were 44.8% for the Coalition and 36.2% for Labor. Since the two-party preferred result in 2010 was 51.5-48.5 in the Coalition’s favour, the implied 1.5% swing in this poll can be interpreted as an election-winning lead for Labor, since it is greater than the Liberal margins in two seats (0.8% in Bentleigh and 1.2% in Seymour) and the current numbers in the Legislative Assembly are 45 Coalition and 43 Labor. Furthermore, there will be a long-overdue redistribution before the next election, and Antony Green contends it is likely to exacerbate the bias to Labor which evidently already exists.

Ted Baillieu’s lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier is down from 46-23 to 40-26, and he has also suffered a four-point drop in approval to 32% and a five point rise in disapproval to 50%. Andrews however has not budged from his mediocre ratings last time, his approval steady on 28% and disapproval up one to 36%. Below is a chart showing the progress of the net approval ratings of the four conservative premiers over their time in office. Newspoll has not published results from Queensland since the March election, but presumably will very shortly (ditto for Western Australia and South Australia), so the figures shown for Campbell Newman are from the two Galaxy polls conducted since that time. All other results are from Newspoll.

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

52 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

I hereby re-post this from the main thread.

http://poliquant.com/victoria-state-polling-overview-and-seat-projection/

I have made the point that the redistribution will effect the outcome of the next election.

Work To Rule
Guest

Well Ted is cutting funding to TAFE and building more prisons – he’s policies are, at least, internally consistant.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

[vexnews ‏@vexnews
Vic Liberals say Newspoll is calculating preference flows too favourably, suggesting Libs are behind Labor #springst http://pic.twitter.com/7utrvuCP
9:29 AM – 29 Aug 12]

Leadership
Guest

29
this was Tim Holding statement on issue
Opposition treasury spokesman Tim Holding said Labor had initiated the VCEC inquiry while in government and remained ”strongly supportive of any reasonable measure which facilitates future tourism investment and jobs”.
http://m.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/tourism-restrictions-to-be-eased-in-victorias-parks-and-farmland-20120818-24fdc.html
These’re bigger issue out in community then national park like Jobs,Tafes,PT,Planning,Roads speaking as proud victorian

Leadership
Guest

29
this was Tim Holding said on issue
Opposition treasury spokesman Tim Holding said Labor had initiated the VCEC inquiry while in government and remained ”strongly supportive of any reasonable measure which facilitates future tourism investment and jobs”.
http://m.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/tourism-restrictions-to-be-eased-in-victorias-parks-and-farmland-20120818-24fdc.html
These’re bigger issue out in community then national park like Jobs,Tafes,PT,Planning,Roads speaking as proud victorian

blackburnpseph
Guest

The big advantage that Labor have at the next election is that by losing in 2010 they did not “win one election too many” – even if they had won by a small margin it would have been put down to “a good result for a government in power for 11 years” rather than getting a fright. If they had won in 2010, the ALP would now be facing the same budgetary pressures that the Libs have had to face in this term and some of the issues surrounding Justin Madden’s administration as Planning Minister might have blown up in this term also. By 2014, if Labor had won, they would be looking like a very tired, old administration.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

45

The redistribution will have an effect but my point about the lack of care about north and west and the Legislative council still stands.

The liberals have put off the construction of Southland Station on the Frankston line so it won`t be finished by the next election.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Tome,

Let’s see how the re distribution works out. Could be 2 new seats in the north and the west to cater for the growth.

I’d also expect Labor to regain a few seats along the Frankston train line.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

43

The Coalition not spending in the northern and western suburbs shows that they have not understood that, under the Bracks government`s upper house reforms, they have a majority in the Legislative Council only because they gained a seat each in Northern and Western Metropolitan regions. They are less likely to retain their Legislative Council majority than their Legislative Assembly majority.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Psephos,

Andrews has managed to keep his team united and focussed on building their credibility amongst the voters. There has been little or no sooking and sniping and everyone has been told to get on with the job of being an Opposition intent on keeping the Baillieu Government accountable.

Issues like the TAFE cuts, Baillieu’s fumbling leadership style and the pork barelling of Minister electorates over other more pressing community needs (see railway crossing upgrades at Terang and Brighton) are making the Libs the issue.

Out at Banyule a long term Member of the Libs and ex Mayor has quit the Libs in disgust because he realised that the Libs won’t spend a brass razoo on the northern and western suburbs.

Doesn’t auger well for the Libs in the future.

No doubt, Labor could screw things up from here. But, Andrews campaigned very well in the Melbourne by election and is clearly pacing his stalking of Ted.

Psephos
Guest

[Daniel Andrews is an extremely intelligent person who deeply considers facts and is a long-term strategic thinker. However … his approval ratings are still much lower than what they should be. I must confess I’m not entirely sure about how he can easily turn this around.]

I don’t think he needs to. Opposition leaders don’t need to be popular, just seen as a safe and competent alternative to an unpopular PM or Premier. If the voters want to put Baillieu out, they will, regardless of who is Opposition Leader – unless he is actually scary, like Latham. Andrews should keep on doing what he’s doing, until the actual campaign.

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

@mexicanbeemer

Glad to hear it confirmed by others though, I just don’t understand this obsession the Liberals have with the public service.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Thanks Dr Fumbles – I had heard that but wondered if you were pointing to something new.

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

@mexicanbeemer

It was mooted around the time of the VPS wage bargaining, but we heard about moves towards that beforehand. There would be more details of the plans on the FWA site as they were forced to reveal their hand.

The 4 year contracts is sort of a liberal utopia!, until then we will just see them remove protections for job security in the VPS, this is also something they tried to do, reduce the protections about employing contractors and labour hire workers, change the arrangements to make fix termers ongoing, gave a great insight into the priorities of new liberal Governments – slash budgets, slash jobs and entitlements.

Even Can Do Campbell is doing it today, just like Gunna Do O’Barrell in NSW, luckilly Big Ted can’t do it even if he wanted too as we referred our IR powers –

NEWMAN AXES PUBLIC SECTOR CONTRACTING-OUT AND JOB SECURITY PROVISIONS
Tuesday, 28 August 2012 4:11pm

Queensland’s Newman Government has passed legislation to void public sector
agreement clauses that provide for job security and regulate
contracting-out, give greater scope for lawyers to appear in the State IRC
and remove administrative duties from Commission President David Hall.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Dr Fumbles – I’m curious and maybe you might not be able to say but where did you hear that the State Government plans to replace the VPS with staff on four year contacts?

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

@blackburnpseph

I think I have been here too long and become too cynical and these are just hypothetical musings of course.

You are right about a reshuffle, i think that is happening sooner rather than later and will happen after we have had all the VDPs. Then we see what the new departments look like and what resources are left.

Graeme
Guest

Mr Barnett is defying gravity nicely.

William, that graph looks like a game from the Touch Physics app!

blackburnpseph
Guest

The other thing Baillieu needs desperately is a cabinet reshuffle – Kim Wells as Treasurer is definitely not up to the job and Terry Mulder in Transport has been a disappointment after being effective in opposition.

Peter Ryan is by far their best media performer – Ted is however variable – can be very good but can be dismal as well.

blackburnpseph
Guest

Dr Fumbles

A very interesting observation of the processes.

More than anything else the Baillieu government has shown that they were not prepared to govern – their election win in 2010 was as much a surprise to them as to everybody else.

The contrast is with O’Farrell where they were prepared to govern – being up against a government so on the nose probably helped focus the mind.

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

@SBH

It is a disgrace alright, as if Big Ted treats being premier as a hobby.

@blackburnpseph

It should also be remembered that the Bailllieu government is not halfway through its term so there is still a long way to go – unless the proverbial bus appears.

You know, I was just discussing this today, while they are a couple of months shy of half way – I think they have almost run out of time for the following reasons, the Government is obsessed with savings and the 4400 jobs cuts. The VPS ‘sustainable government’ cuts announced end of 2010 have not yet occured, we are still waiting for the redundancies (VDPs) to be announced. This Gov is paralysed until they get this sorted as nobody knows who or what programmes are affected. This is because if you take a VCP your position is cut that work area loses the $$$.

Anyhow, given the scale of cuts and the timetable to get it organised this will not be sorted until at least December. Following on will be a process of consolidation and restructuring to finalise head counts and assess resources. These changes could be as large as Departmental restructing so it in unlikley to be sorted until at least early 2013.

Happening at that time, in the absence of certainty about staff and programs will be all the Budget bids and programs, thus it is unlikley that any big new bids will get up beyond the emergency ones so dont expect much excitment in the 2013-14 Budget. In fact is is likley more cuts – or lapsing programs will be annouced as the last of the labor $$ are used up.

We are only likley to see any significant changes by budget 2014. Only after then will VPS and Departmental resources be finalised and the previous Government programs finished. However, if this Govt is anything like the others it will be operating in defacto Caretaker mode at least 6 months out of the election date.

I could be wrong of course, given some dynamic leadership and a degree of political will anything can be done, we could see a burst of policy and other announcements until the election but, as Big Ted himself says, with the policy people sacked and the sin doctors who announce policy sacked who will find out about it!.

wpDiscuz