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Victorian Politics

Aug 27, 2012

Newspoll: 50-50 in Victoria

Troy Bramston on Sky News reports Labor has drawn level on two-party preferred in Victoria, after the Coalition held on to a 51-49 lead in March-April (the last time we had a result fro

Troy Bramston on Sky News reports Labor has drawn level on two-party preferred in Victoria, after the Coalition held on to a 51-49 lead in March-April (the last time we had a result from Newspoll, which usually goes bi-monthly in New South Wales and Victoria). This is the first time Labor has been even with the Coalition on two-party preferred in any poll, state or federal, since the federal poll of March 18-20 last year. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (up three) and 13% for the Greens. The Greens are down four points, and while this follows a three-point spike in their favour last time, it’s still their lowest Newspoll rating since July-August 2009. Their actual election result in November 2010 was only 11.2%, so it may be that Newspoll has a problem with overstating their support. The results for the major parties at the 2010 election were 44.8% for the Coalition and 36.2% for Labor. Since the two-party preferred result in 2010 was 51.5-48.5 in the Coalition’s favour, the implied 1.5% swing in this poll can be interpreted as an election-winning lead for Labor, since it is greater than the Liberal margins in two seats (0.8% in Bentleigh and 1.2% in Seymour) and the current numbers in the Legislative Assembly are 45 Coalition and 43 Labor. Furthermore, there will be a long-overdue redistribution before the next election, and Antony Green contends it is likely to exacerbate the bias to Labor which evidently already exists.

Ted Baillieu’s lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier is down from 46-23 to 40-26, and he has also suffered a four-point drop in approval to 32% and a five point rise in disapproval to 50%. Andrews however has not budged from his mediocre ratings last time, his approval steady on 28% and disapproval up one to 36%. Below is a chart showing the progress of the net approval ratings of the four conservative premiers over their time in office. Newspoll has not published results from Queensland since the March election, but presumably will very shortly (ditto for Western Australia and South Australia), so the figures shown for Campbell Newman are from the two Galaxy polls conducted since that time. All other results are from Newspoll.

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52 comments

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Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

I hereby re-post this from the main thread.

http://poliquant.com/victoria-state-polling-overview-and-seat-projection/

I have made the point that the redistribution will effect the outcome of the next election.

Work To Rule
Guest

Well Ted is cutting funding to TAFE and building more prisons – he’s policies are, at least, internally consistant.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

[vexnews ‏@vexnews
Vic Liberals say Newspoll is calculating preference flows too favourably, suggesting Libs are behind Labor #springst http://pic.twitter.com/7utrvuCP
9:29 AM – 29 Aug 12]

Leadership
Guest

29
this was Tim Holding statement on issue
Opposition treasury spokesman Tim Holding said Labor had initiated the VCEC inquiry while in government and remained ”strongly supportive of any reasonable measure which facilitates future tourism investment and jobs”.
http://m.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/tourism-restrictions-to-be-eased-in-victorias-parks-and-farmland-20120818-24fdc.html
These’re bigger issue out in community then national park like Jobs,Tafes,PT,Planning,Roads speaking as proud victorian

Leadership
Guest

29
this was Tim Holding said on issue
Opposition treasury spokesman Tim Holding said Labor had initiated the VCEC inquiry while in government and remained ”strongly supportive of any reasonable measure which facilitates future tourism investment and jobs”.
http://m.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/tourism-restrictions-to-be-eased-in-victorias-parks-and-farmland-20120818-24fdc.html
These’re bigger issue out in community then national park like Jobs,Tafes,PT,Planning,Roads speaking as proud victorian

blackburnpseph
Guest
The big advantage that Labor have at the next election is that by losing in 2010 they did not “win one election too many” – even if they had won by a small margin it would have been put down to “a good result for a government in power for 11 years” rather than getting a fright. If they had won in 2010, the ALP would now be facing the same budgetary pressures that the Libs have had to face in this term and some of the issues surrounding Justin Madden’s administration as Planning Minister might have blown up in… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

45

The redistribution will have an effect but my point about the lack of care about north and west and the Legislative council still stands.

The liberals have put off the construction of Southland Station on the Frankston line so it won`t be finished by the next election.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Tome,

Let’s see how the re distribution works out. Could be 2 new seats in the north and the west to cater for the growth.

I’d also expect Labor to regain a few seats along the Frankston train line.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

43

The Coalition not spending in the northern and western suburbs shows that they have not understood that, under the Bracks government`s upper house reforms, they have a majority in the Legislative Council only because they gained a seat each in Northern and Western Metropolitan regions. They are less likely to retain their Legislative Council majority than their Legislative Assembly majority.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler
Psephos, Andrews has managed to keep his team united and focussed on building their credibility amongst the voters. There has been little or no sooking and sniping and everyone has been told to get on with the job of being an Opposition intent on keeping the Baillieu Government accountable. Issues like the TAFE cuts, Baillieu’s fumbling leadership style and the pork barelling of Minister electorates over other more pressing community needs (see railway crossing upgrades at Terang and Brighton) are making the Libs the issue. Out at Banyule a long term Member of the Libs and ex Mayor has quit… Read more »
Psephos
Guest
[Daniel Andrews is an extremely intelligent person who deeply considers facts and is a long-term strategic thinker. However … his approval ratings are still much lower than what they should be. I must confess I’m not entirely sure about how he can easily turn this around.] I don’t think he needs to. Opposition leaders don’t need to be popular, just seen as a safe and competent alternative to an unpopular PM or Premier. If the voters want to put Baillieu out, they will, regardless of who is Opposition Leader – unless he is actually scary, like Latham. Andrews should keep… Read more »
Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

@mexicanbeemer

Glad to hear it confirmed by others though, I just don’t understand this obsession the Liberals have with the public service.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Thanks Dr Fumbles – I had heard that but wondered if you were pointing to something new.

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest
@mexicanbeemer It was mooted around the time of the VPS wage bargaining, but we heard about moves towards that beforehand. There would be more details of the plans on the FWA site as they were forced to reveal their hand. The 4 year contracts is sort of a liberal utopia!, until then we will just see them remove protections for job security in the VPS, this is also something they tried to do, reduce the protections about employing contractors and labour hire workers, change the arrangements to make fix termers ongoing, gave a great insight into the priorities of new… Read more »
mexicanbeemer
Guest

Dr Fumbles – I’m curious and maybe you might not be able to say but where did you hear that the State Government plans to replace the VPS with staff on four year contacts?

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest

@blackburnpseph

I think I have been here too long and become too cynical and these are just hypothetical musings of course.

You are right about a reshuffle, i think that is happening sooner rather than later and will happen after we have had all the VDPs. Then we see what the new departments look like and what resources are left.

Graeme
Guest

Mr Barnett is defying gravity nicely.

William, that graph looks like a game from the Touch Physics app!

blackburnpseph
Guest

The other thing Baillieu needs desperately is a cabinet reshuffle – Kim Wells as Treasurer is definitely not up to the job and Terry Mulder in Transport has been a disappointment after being effective in opposition.

Peter Ryan is by far their best media performer – Ted is however variable – can be very good but can be dismal as well.

blackburnpseph
Guest

Dr Fumbles

A very interesting observation of the processes.

More than anything else the Baillieu government has shown that they were not prepared to govern – their election win in 2010 was as much a surprise to them as to everybody else.

The contrast is with O’Farrell where they were prepared to govern – being up against a government so on the nose probably helped focus the mind.

Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest
@SBH It is a disgrace alright, as if Big Ted treats being premier as a hobby. @blackburnpseph It should also be remembered that the Bailllieu government is not halfway through its term so there is still a long way to go – unless the proverbial bus appears. You know, I was just discussing this today, while they are a couple of months shy of half way – I think they have almost run out of time for the following reasons, the Government is obsessed with savings and the 4400 jobs cuts. The VPS ‘sustainable government’ cuts announced end of 2010… Read more »
blackburnpseph
Guest
This is definitely no good for the Libs at state level and it has to be said that it is largely self inflicted. Daniel Andrews, however, is an invisible Opposition leader – not often on the news, rarely interviewed. Labor might still be treading lightly as too high a profile might remind the voters of why they were voted out to start with. Labor will probably start out in front when the redistribution comes and the Libs will start with an uphill battle. The Libs might get a sophomore surge from the MPs elected last time and some of the… Read more »
Lev Lafayette
Guest

Daniel Andrews is an extremely intelligent person who deeply considers facts and is a long-term strategic thinker. However he’s not nearly good at being sensationalist or at putting across an entire point of view in a sound-bite of fifteen seconds. As a result his approval ratings are still much lower than what they should be.

I must confess I’m not entirely sure about how he can easily turn this around. Opinion pieces in the newspapers, perhaps are a stronger avenue for him. At least they give the opportunity for a more elaborate presentation. Perhaps even presentations on YouTube etc?

SBH
Guest

Dr Fumbles, yuo are on the money. Nothing is actually being done. I’m working a 45 hour week as a standard but no actual work is taking place. Things go up and get lost or take months, simple questions keep being asked (someone doesn’t read briefs) and staffers are arrogant bullies.

It started at the start of course, some journo who knows how Westminster governments run should ask when Ted signed enabling letters for his ministers? It’s simply a shambles

DRinMelb
Guest
Leadership @ 5 the open up of national park is support from both party and is a non issue for 99.9 of Victorian Population. Care to cite any evidence for that claim, other than your own subjective assessment? If you think that then you have seriously misread the Victorian polity. We are very protective of our National Parks and won’t sit back and be told they are “open for business”. My personal opionin is that Bailleau (and similarly Newman and O’Farrell) are delivering all the big cost cutting pain measures early in their terms, and will try to win (ie:… Read more »
Dr Fumbles McStupid
Guest
@Sustainable future His government behaves as though they have a massive majority and have been there for years. Sustainable is right on the money there, this Government does behave like it has a huge majority and the ‘climate change’ example is indicative of how both how trivial this Government is and the lack of direction/policy/activity. What this Government is strong on is right wing ideology, but this is something not too obvious outside but we have the: distrust for the VPS action to contract out VPS jobs intention to replace VPS with fixed term (4 year contracts!) obsession with budgetary… Read more »
Venise Alstergren
Guest

Ted Baillieu is an unmitigated disaster. Still, I guess this is what happens when a Coalition leader allows the National Country Party-Victoria’s very own Peter Ryan-to make policy.

Kirsdarke
Guest

I just got a notice that my university will be hosting the Legislative Assembly next Thursday. By a stroke of luck, question time will be outside my classes. So I’ll see if I can watch it.

I wonder what questions will be asked of the TAFE cuts?

Mike Flanagan
Guest

So at last we see the public’s perception of
Can do Campbell
Might Do O’Farrel and
Cant do Ted

Andrew
Guest

The ads by the education union on teachers pay I think have had a big impact

billie
Guest

Education was Australia’s 4 th largest export industry and most of that education industry was based in Victoria, so the 80% cuts to TAFE education in Victoria go to the heart of many people’s lives, including

– the current and Potential TAFE students
– the army of casual teachers in the system
– the population relying on properly accredited, skilled tradespeople

The failure to improve public transport hurts many people

In my circles the threat of development in National Parks is a vote killer as well

triton
Guest

It’s becoming increasingly clear to Victorians that Ted is a dud.

zoomster
Guest

deblonay

yep, the same blip in the polls that saw the Greens lose Melbourne.

And – given that most Green voters vote Labor second – if the Greens lose numbers, most of them will go back to Labor.

If they don’t, their preferences will (largely) still go to Labor regardless.

deblonay
Guest

and why the bans on Journalists and other media into Manus Island ???
rather like Howard’s time all over ??
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/media-barred-from-manus-island-20120827-24wov.htm

deblonay
Guest

Re Post 18
_________
More likely just blip in the polls…there is often trouble with minor parties …
and what “new way of dealin”..the ALP needs their prefs more than ever as always

spur212
Guest

This is an interesting poll. The ALP up 3 and the Greens Party down 4

Some might see this as vindication for the ALP’s new way of dealing with the Greens Party

Rational Leftist
Guest

Thanks for that, William!

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

14

The DLP lost in the 2010 state election and is out of the Legislative Council. The Coalition have a majority. Paragraphs can also be useful.

sustainable future
Guest
He only won because Brumby was arrogant and unlikable and Baillieu pretended to be a moderate on many issues – even attacking the government from the left on some issues. With the narrowest of majorities and the support of the DLP he is now rescinding legislation he gave bi-partisan support for in opposition (how is that for deliberate deception of the electorate) and is setting the clock on environment and planning back to somewhere in the 1970s or earlier. He and his ministers have stopped departments from using the term climate change (it is ‘good old fashioned climate variability’), slashed… Read more »
Yesiree Bob
Guest

You’d be very surprised just how many suburbanites like to “rough” it in the bush over a week end, The Prom, for example.

Leadership
Guest

The Age can see it in way it see fit it a non issue for victorian.People care about Jobs,Tafes,PT,Planning,Road as this poll is showing all failure of this government

Leadership
Guest

6 your right on TAFES cut plus also planning starting to get big with the new VicSmart laws but National parks are non issue bar for a few inner city greens voters speaks as Victorian

Yesiree Bob
Guest

the open up of national park is support from both party and is a non issue for 99.9 of Victorian Population

The Age seems to see it differently:
h­ttp://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/national-parks-value-lies-in-being-unspoilt-20120826-24uk0.html

Leadership
Guest

Primanys vote 41 Libs/Nat 35 Labor

Rational Leftist
Guest

Wow. First opinion poll where Labor’s vote has begun with a 5 in how long?

I guess one saving grace for the Baillieu government is that they still have 2 years to switch things around.

Yesiree Bob
Guest

Teds downfall will be the TAFE cuts and opening up the Parks to the developers. Two big sacred cows for Victorians.

Leadership
Guest

1 the open up of national park is support from both party and is a non issue for 99.9 of Victorian Population

Yesiree Bob
Guest

Then its not good news for Ted

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

Ted is looking increasingly like a oncer. First since Cain Senior (if Cain Senior`s 4 days in 1943 do not count).

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