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Seat of the week: Lilley

Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers the Brisbane bayside north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm i

Wayne Swan’s electorate of Lilley covers the Brisbane bayside north-east of the city centre, between the Brisbane and Pine rivers – an area accounting for industrial Eagle Farm in the south and residential Brighton in the north – along with suburbs nearer the city from McDowall, Stafford Heights and Everton Park eastwards through Kedron, Chermside and Zillmere to Nundah, Nudgee and Taigum. The redistribution before the 2010 election had a substantial impact on the electorate, adding 26,000 in Chermside West and Stafford Heights at the northern end (from Petrie) and removing a similar number of voters in an area from Clayfield and Hendra south to Hamilton on the river (to Brisbane), but the margin was little affected.

Lilley was created in 1913, originally extending from its current base of Nudgee, Aspley, Kedron, Eagle Farm and Brisbane Airport all the way north to Gympie. It did not become entirely urban until the enlargement of parliament in 1949, when Petrie was created to accommodate what were then Brisbane’s semi-rural outskirts. Labor won Lilley in 1943, 1946, 1961 and 1972 (by a margin of 35 votes on the latter occasion), but otherwise it was usually safe for the prevailing conservative forces of the day. A decisive shift came with the elections of 1980 and 1983, when Labor’s Elaine Darling won and then consolidated the seat with respective swings of 5.2% and 8.4%.

Wayne Swan succeeded Darling as the Labor member in 1993, but like all but two of his Queensland Labor colleagues he lost his seat in 1996. Swan stood again in 1998 and accounted for the 0.4% post-redistribution margin with a swing of 3.5%. He added further fat to his margin at the each of the next three elections, although in keeping with the inner urban trend his swing in 2007 was well below the statewide average (3.2% compared with 7.5%). The 2010 election delivered the LNP a swing of 4.8% that compared with a statewide result of 5.5%, bringing the seat well into the marginal zone at 3.2%.

Swan’s path into politics began as an adviser to Bill Hayden during his tenure as Opposition Leader and later to Hawke government ministers Mick Young and Kim Beazley, before he took on the position of Queensland party secretary in 1991. He was elevated to the shadow ministry after recovering his seat in 1998, taking on the family and community services portfolio, and remained close to former boss Beazley. Mark Latham famously described Swan and his associates as “roosters” when Beazley conspired to recover the leadership in 2003, but nonetheless retained him in his existing position during his own tenure in the leadership. Swan was further promoted to the Treasury portfolio after the 2004 election defeat, which he retained in government despite suggestions Rudd had been promised the position to Lindsay Tanner in return for his support when he toppled Kim Beazley as leader in December 2006.

Although he went to high school with him in Nambour and shared a party background during the Wayne Goss years, Swan has long been a bitter rival of Kevin Rudd, the former emerging as part of the AWU grouping of the Right and the latter with the Right’s “old guard”. He was in the camp opposing Rudd at successive leadership challenges, including Rudd’s successful challenge against Beazley, his toppling by Julia Gillard in June 2010, and most recently when he sought to recover the leadership in February 2012, when Swan accused Rudd of “sabotaging policy announcements and undermining our substantial economic successes”. Swan succeeded Gillard as deputy upon her ascension to the prime ministership.

Swan’s LNP opponent for the second consecutive election will be Rod McGarvie, a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper. McGarvie won a July preselection vote from a field which included John Cotter, GasFields commissioner and former head of agriculture lobby group AgForce, and Bill Gollan, owner of a Deagon car dealership.

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2173 comments

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lyne lady
Guest

morning bludgers…
more unravelling for the LOTO http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/punch-witness-comes-forward-with-tales-of-anarchy-in-the-src-20120912-25sxx.html
wonder when peta will allow him to front the press?

i thought rudd was excellent – completely surprised me – with him on board it’s up up and away imo

spring in step today

my say
Guest
Sk Mine are dreams, sometimes things take years to happen, But not always. I’d say you have a great guide/guardian angel. Who is warning. You to?warn, Have u ever seen an accident, and gosh, ?if the phone had not rang, or if icould of found my car keys That may have been me I think. To we are used to say say thing out of the blue, the person you?spoke to May say, gosh i was worrying about that or thank u that had been on my mind Some times the pho e rings and u may of tnought of… Read more »
Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest

Thanks Puff for the info and thanks Schnappi for the laugh .

Schnappi
Guest

ah new thread

Schnappi
Guest

Essential is out ,anyone got it

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Victoria IMHO, organised sport, particularly male teams in aggressive sports, promote the group identity and adherence to group norms to an extent which can over-ride the individual’s sense of self-protection. This is no different to the military or street gangs. This is why players will play on with injuries which should be rested or join in questionable pack behaviour that the individual normally would shun. That is where the club has a responsibility. When strong groups are created, strong rules and leadership is needed, particularly when the players are young and still developing their own values. When the group that… Read more »
victoria
Guest

SK

Some things cannot be explained too easily

Space Kidette
Guest

victoria,

I had a similar incident with the helicopter at sea world. My brothers and their girlfriends wanted to go on the helicopter, and I love to fly as my brothers were well aware and tried and tried to get me on it and I stubbornly refused and begged my brothers not to go on it. Anyway they did go on it, survived, and gave me plenty of stick.

We flew home that night and the next day was the day the Sea World helicopter crashed.

victoria
Guest

bemused

I have no idea who the person was, and why the police were in pursuit. The really weird part for me was that without any clue as to what was about to occur, I had the strong feeling to get off the bridge because something bad was just about to happen. I could never figure out how I could possibly know this in advance.

bemused
Guest
Victoria @ 2155 Low and behold a few minutes later, police arrived in police cars and ordered everyone off the bridge. Guns drawn etc, there was this guy on the bridge they were zoning in on, and a lady who had arrived with the police started pleading with this man. Next thing you see is the man jump off the bridge. I could not believe what I was watching. It was like a scene from a movie. Could never Reconcile that incident in my mind. I see. So the cops plan was to shoot him to stop him jumping off… Read more »
Leroy Lynch
Guest
victoria
Guest

Lynchpin

It was horrible, but also very weird.

Lynchpin
Guest

Victoria, what a horrible thing to witness.

Boerwar
Guest

IMHO, the public already knows that Mr Abbott is a bit of a serial thug, a bit of serial stuntmeister and a bit of a liar. The 40% or so who give him PPM will ignore all this because he gives them what they want to hear. The other 60% are most likely not going to switch to hime for any particular reason.

I am not convinced that the Government going all-out on a negative attack on Mr Abbott is good politics.

IMHO, nor would it increase Labor’s stature as a government.

IMHO, people are sick of gutter politics.

antonbruckner11
Guest

I’m still coming to terms with the fact that the challenger for the Prime Ministership was asked if he violently intimidated a woman and he said he couldn’t remember!!! Jesus. That wasn’t exactly a trick question. There was only one sane answer. The man has obviously got the IQ of a pot-plant, albeit a well watered one.

davidwh
Guest

Mick I think you are just manipulating the different circumstances to justify one side doing something you would criticise the other side for doing. Having said that the government, and Gillard personally, has had plenty directed her way in the past two years so Abbott can hardly complain if a bit comes back to bite him.

But please don’t try to differentiate the issues on equity grounds. They are both old issues which were only raised now for political point scoring reasons.

victoria
Guest
SK A few years ago I was at a public park, and was crossing a suspension bridge with my daughter. All of a sudden, Something was urging me to get off the bridge. Mind you, it was a calm sunny day and people were just casually walking along the bridge without a care in the world, but i got this sense of urgency to get off the bridge. So I told my daughter that we needed to rush off the bridge. Once I got off the bridge my OH said what is wrong? Why are you panicking? All I could… Read more »
Lynchpin
Guest

[The incident with Hockey where he knocked him unconscious is also worth noting]

I have never heard of this before – what is this in?

Remember the problems Latham had over his cabbie incident?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Snap,
Straight to the heart of the matter.

Boerwar
Guest
Topics of political interest in the Philippines ATM: (1) sacking of Mr Puno in relation to some accusations relating to details surrounding the purchase of 59,000 Glocks and a substantial number of long firearms for the police. (2) the non-occurrence of a hoped-for meeting in the sidelines beween Messers Hu and Noy. (the Chinese are having a severely trashing impact on the Philippines banana export industry by way of trade pressure in relation to disputed islands in what is variously called the South China Sea or the Philippines Western Sea.) (3) the alledged failure by the Deputy Speaker to keep… Read more »
Space Kidette
Guest

BH,

When are you likely to know?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Lord Bazza,
Albo said that Hockey said he was with Abbott when he read the statement at 3.45pm. So Hockey must have claimed to have witnessed Abbott reading the M Klopper statement except Albo reckons the parliamentary cameras show they were not together at the time. I think Albo said Hockey was still in the Chamber at 3.45 pm and that means Abbott mislead the House.

Expect more in QT, I reckon.

Schnappi
Guest

LBB

[What is the link with Hockey and Abbott Re: Punchgate ?]

Lies

BH
Guest

SK – used to, especially after pregnancies and so many could not be explained as coincidences. Used to tell OH and he’d say that’s not going to happen and when it did he’d get worried. I was so glad it stopped but I had to concentrate hard to make that happen.

All our hard work over last couple of weeks and on Sat at polling booth seems to have come off. Almost certain our candidates will get up.

thirdborn314
Guest

I don’t mind seeing the govt going after abbott on this, he has clearly lied. The incident with Hockey where he knocked him unconscious is also worth noting – I would like to think the leader of this nation has more self control than this and has more creative responses to conflict. I have never had need to physically hit anyone, and I have a country/football/military background. Resorting to assault, I believe, is a sign of weakness.

victoria
Guest

Puff

Organised sport is a good thing in my experience.

Males of all ages who get together in certain social settings, can end in tragedy by the very nature of their risky behaviours. Nothing to do with organised sport

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Lynchpin,

I don’t agree with most here today re PunchGate. I reckon the Govt should go hard at Abbott on this. It looks like he has lied about it.

I agree, sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander and all that.

If you can find the Albo presser from a few minutes ago, Albo was doing it. However the death of a footy player will be the focus of the msm for a few days.

Space Kidette
Guest

Thanks guys, at least I’m not the only one!

victoria
Guest

Boerwar

You are right in most respects. But I have had some pretty specific things occur that cannot be easily explained

Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest

What is the link with Hockey and Abbott Re: Punchgate ?

Lynchpin
Guest

I agree, Mick Collins.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Victoria,
I have some contrarian ideas, one of which is that involvement in organised sport is not as great a thing for teenaged/young men as it is cracked up to be. Until codes own the tangible and intangible damage that can occur by the very nature of the groups they create (and to their credit a lot of them are) young people will continue to be at risk.

Lynchpin
Guest

I don’t agree with most here today re PunchGate. I reckon the Govt should go hard at Abbott on this. It looks like he has lied about it.

Yesiree Bob
Guest
Labor would look like hypocrites if they pursued the Abbott stuff from 30 years ago in QT today, given that the Liberals would have been similarly damned if they’d asked questions about the Slater & Gordon stuff. OK so lets analyse the two different “incidents”: Abbott, after losing an election,allegedly approached his opponent, got well within her personal space, then punched a hole in the wall, either side of her face. That’s extremely intimidatory behaviour, and if the truth be told, is Assault. Ms Gillard, allegedly once shacked up with a bloke, whom she also set up s “slush fund”… Read more »
victoria
Guest

Puff

Not surprised the msm is defensive. They behaved the same way regarding the Slipper case when the focus went onto the coalition

Boerwar
Guest

SK
I get the presentiments regularly; but the presentimented incidents hardly ever happen. Naturally, I remember best the once-in-a-blue-moon ‘hits’.

Lynchpin
Guest
[The press pack were trying to give Abbott a free pass on it. Albo was saying he may have mislead the House. After the way the msm went after Gillard, if they don’t go for Abbott over his claims to have read/not read the Klopper statement and his denial of punching that wall, their bias will be obvious.] :monkey: will assure the Press Gallery with something like: “Look, look, umm, we say and do a lot of things that we shouldn’t. I am not perfect. No one is. God has forgiven me. Really, I am a good person just trying… Read more »
victoria
Guest

SK

All the time. Too numerous to mention.

Space Kidette
Guest
I’ve just had another one of those yuk de ja vu things in my life. When I read the players were leaving for their end of year celebrations in LV my immediate reaction was ‘oooh, not good. We’ll be hearing a lot about that.’ That reaction was based on absolutely nothing. The last time I had that reaction was as I watched my brother out the window leave on his bike to go to my boyfriends place to work on his race bike. My reaction that time was NO, don’t GO, as I watched him leave. My brother came off… Read more »
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Victoria,
Defensive would be the best description. Then it was cut off for the news about the footballer. I think Albo’s attack will be overwhelmed in the news by that. Unfortunately the msm will probably make the lives of the family hell, by not leaving them alone.

I am sick of ABC news readers reading out tweets from Twitter. If I wanted to know what Twitter was saying about it I would bloody well read fit or myself.

C@tmomma
Guest

von kirsdarke@2124,

So the quarterly essay was essentially a puff piece on how wonderful that lying vile despicable vicious disgrace of a man is?

Yes, I was amazed to hear David Marr on ABC Sydney this morning basically saying that Abbott is just a rascally rapscallion!!!

victoria
Guest

lizzie

I have a son around that age who plays local footy. He always goes away on trips etc. my biggest fear is that he or one of his friends fall from hotel balconies. This incident resonates with me, because I can see how easily this can occur.

bemused
Guest

zoidlord @ 2106

@bemused/2070

Could be twitter server related OR your modem’s timezone setting.

I don’t have access to any modem settings, but my router has the correct timezone set and all other times display correctly.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

That is very tragic about the player who died, his family and friends will be devastated.

Unfortunately, it is not uncommon for end-of-season (all codes of) football trips to end in tragedy or at least, serious injury.

lizzie
Guest

http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-footballer-killed-in-las-vegas-20120910-25nmy.html
He wasn’t “killed”, he fell to his death, apparently.
The contracted subbies need to get a grip.

victoria
Guest

Puff

I did not see the Presser, but were the journos interested or muted?

guytaur
Guest

VK

Albo used part of that essay to attack Abbott and the Canberra Media Pack were not happy.

Kirsdarke
Guest

So the quarterly essay was essentially a puff piece on how wonderful that lying vile despicable vicious disgrace of a man is?

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