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Queensland Politics

Sep 16, 2012


ReachTEL has published results from an automated phone poll of voting intention in Queensland conducted for the Seven Network, and while two-party figures aren’t provided, my own calculation off preferences flows from the March election (a slightly inexact science) has the LNP’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, compared with about 56.5-43.5 at the previous such poll a month ago and 62.8-37.2 at the election. The latest poll in fact has the LNP vote up slightly, from 44.2% to 44.7%, but Labor is up further, from 31.6% to 34.7%. Most of the gain comes from the Greens, down from 9.2% to 7.0%, with Katter’s Australian Party essentially steady at 9.4%. The results at the election were 49.7% for the LNP, 26.7% for Labor, 11.5% for Katter’s Australian Party and 7.5% for the Greens.

A seat results projection of the results Poliquant now has Labor at 28 seats, compared with 24 last month and seven at the election. Possum Comitatus, who is privy to polling conducted by ReachTel for the union movement in Queensland, published aggregated results for last month from both published and unpublished figures which indicated a 6.9% swing to Labor in Brisbane off a sample of about 2000, and a 5.0% swing in regional areas off a sample of about 800.

The poll also finds over a third of respondents now rating Campbell Newman’s performance as “very poor”, which has progressed since July from 14.8% to 27.4% to 35.8%. Interestingly, his “very good” rating is down only slightly, with most of the movement coming off “indifferent”, down from 20.0% to 8.6%. Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings have improved slightly, with a combined good and very good result up from 19.4% to 23.2% since July, with poor and very poor down from 32.3% to 29.1%. The budget has not done much to change views on the appropriateness of the government’s cost-cutting measures, with results of 51.2% for gone too far, 16.6% for not gone far enough and 30.5% for too early to tell, which is little changed on a month ago.

Stay tuned for what promises to be a glut of federal polling over the coming days: Nielsen tonight, Newspoll most likely tomorrow evening, Essential Research early tomorrow afternoon, and Morgan on Tuesday afternoon.


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