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NSW Politics

Oct 2, 2012

ReachTEL Sydney by-election poll

The sample is small and the methodology perhaps not suited to an inner-city seat, but a private poll suggests Clover Moore-backed independent Alex Greenwich is in the box seat for the October 27 Sydney by-election.

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Josephine Tovey of the Sydney Morning Herald brings results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll on voting intention for the October 27 Sydney by-election, conducted for Clover Moore-endorsed independent candidate Alex Greenwich from a sample of 422. The report says the poll shows Greenwich and Liberal candidate Shayne Mallard “neck and neck to take over (Moore’s) seat”, but what it actually suggests is a very comfortable victory for Greenwich: he and Mallard are both on 31%, and preferences for Greens candidate Chris Harris (on 25%) will flow overwhelmingly in his favour. Indeed, to the extent that there is a contest it would appear on these numbers to be between Greenwich and Harris to see who can win on the back of the other’s preferences (Labor is not fielding a candidate). Antony Green is quoted in the report saying the result should be “treated with some caution as many residents do not have phones at home, particularly in that electorate”. Based purely on the size of the sample, the margin of error for the poll would be approaching 5%.

Antony Green, naturally, has a Sydney-by-election guide in action, as does the formidably productive Poliquant. My own effort will follow soon-ish.

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