Menu lock

Victorian Politics

Oct 24, 2012

Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor in Victoria

It was well understood that Ted Baillieu's government was sitting a lot less pretty than conservative counterparts in other states. Nonetheless, the results of the latest bi-monthly Newspoll will come as a shock to it.

GhostWhoVotes relates a shock Newspoll result of Victorian state voting intention for September-October, with the Labor opposition opening up a 55-45 lead after drawing even last time. Labor is up six points on the primary vote to 41% against 37% for the Coalition, who are down four, with the Greens steady on 13%. Ted Baillieu now has a minus 22 net approval rating, his approval down one to 31% and disapproval up three to 53%. However, Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews’ ratings remain mediocre, his approval up one to 29% and disapproval steady on 36%. Baillieu’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 40-26 to to 39-30.

Topics

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

52 comments

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

BBS,

Robert McLennan and Evan Walker were Ministers for Planning. So your contention seems incorrect.

However, I accept that Baillieu may have been Oppos spokesman in his early days.

blackburnpseph
Guest

GG

Ted Baillieu was actually opposition spokesman on planning before he became leader. It didn’t ‘make’ him however and I did need to check Wikipedia to confirm. But it is only 10-15 years since it became a stand alone department and has become both more important and more contentious as our cities have grown and become more pressured, and projects have also become bigger. In some ways it can break or stall a career – again Madden and Sartor are good examples of that.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

BBS,

I can’t think of any Planning spokesman that has become Premier. Just saying.

blackburnpseph
Guest

WTR @47

Ted himself tackled this himself last year and came out and said that the Bailiieus have a genetic tremor. He always looks healthy enough.

GG@46

Planning is actually a good place for the ‘vision’ thing. Only problem with the Planning portfolio is that has become the lightning rod for political discontent – as seen with Justin Madden or Frank Sartor.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Footy Wolf ‏@FootyWolf
If Geoff Shaw can recover from this crisis I will make a movie about it called “The Shaw-wank Redemption”.

Work To Rule
Guest

Is there any substance to the rumors that ted is ill?

The dude looks fine to me (still a dill – but the hospitals would be over run if that was medical condition).

A lot of people of that age have shaky hands. Where are the rumors coming from?

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

An obvious change is Guy to replace Baillieu in Hawthorn. However, Guy has only been in Parliament for a term and a bit. He has spent nearly all that time in Planning. Not sure of his economic background or vision for the future.

frednk
Guest

[Work To Rule
Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

@frednk – true enough. But does this not speak of the shallow nature of Geoff Shaw that he would behave in this way knowing that he has become the poster child for the Government’s credibility.]

Geoff Shaw is a first class idiot. There are times to shutup, and this is one of them.

blackburnpseph
Guest

Tom @ 43

True but as long as the local party is on side probably not a problem. Also there is cachet in having the premier as your member.

Of course, Barry Unsworth only survived by 52 votes in 1986 when parachuted into Rockdale.

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

42

Not much risk of loss but Matthew Guy is an MLC for Northern Metro and so he does not live in the seat which would cause some complaint.

blackburnpseph
Guest

[The problem for the Tories, who on earth would they pick as an alternative?]

Lev, it is slim pickings for the State Libs. Matthew Guy presents well. If your scenario re Ted did come to pass, he could be parachuted into Ted’s seat of Hawthorn without much risk of loss.

blackburnpseph
Guest

If the Libs did not have a majority of 1 and if Frankston was not such a marginal seat, Geoff Shaw might have been jettisoned by now.

If the ALP, had a majority of one, and same Geoff Shaw was ALP member for Frankston, how would they be playing this??

blackburnpseph
Guest

A scenario to ponder …

A Lib or Nat falls under a bus and seat lost at by -election, numbers are 44 all. The ALP support the member for Frankston to be Speaker so that the numbers on the floor are ALP 44 – Lib 43.

Speaker then causes scandal by making obscene gesture using mace ….

Work To Rule
Guest

@frednk – true enough. But does this not speak of the shallow nature of Geoff Shaw that he would behave in this way knowing that he has become the poster child for the Government’s credibility.

Poliquant
Guest

Victorian State Seat Projection from today’s Newspoll

http://poliquant.com/victorian-seat-projection-newspoll-sep-oct-2012/

frednk
Guest

Just as the Federal LIberals are full of crap trying to get rid of Thompson and Slipper, so are Labor in Victoria trying to get rid of Geoff Shaw. Everyone Knows it’s about numbers, and the false outrage is first degree rubbish.

triton
Guest

The Speaker has now released the footage. Journos all say it’s clearly an obscene gesture. Ted says it’s unclear.

Sustainable future
Guest

V-line has gone downhill since the Libs got in. On my line they have changed timetables with the loss of services and longer trips, and have just announced changes that will add a further 10+ minutes to trips – pretty much back to the times we had before the upgrade to Velocity trains. I suspect this is the liberal party solution to demand management – instead of buying more carriages as they promised, they’ll run down the service to reduce patronage. How long before they try to sell V-line do you think?

Lev Lafayette
Guest
It is early days for the state election, but the Tories have pretty much made a hash of it, not helped by characters as dodgy as Mr. Shaw in Frankston. Daniel Andrews is playing a cautious role, which is in tune to his personality which is both smart and pessimistic. He’s always got on eye on what could go wrong. So just as Andrews has two years to become known as the brain that he is, Ballieu – in theory – has two years to recover. However, I’ve heard on the grapevine that Ted might not have that long –… Read more »
Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

30

To be fare to Terry Mulder, the New St level crossing was more from Asher and influential locals. It does increase the view that this government is more interested in its friends than ordinary people.

New St was 223 on the priority list but that was before it was closed to cars and this significantly reducing its risk. The current plan to re-open it with boom gates would actually increase the risk.

wpDiscuz