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NSW Politics

Oct 27, 2012

Sydney by-election live

Live coverage of the by-election to fill Clover Moore's vacancy in the state seat of Sydney. Moore-backed independent Alex Greenwich takes the field against Shayne Mallard of the Liberals and Chris Harris of the Greens, Labor having piked.

8.05pm. Primary votes for the eight outstanding booths have been added, together with 4709 pre-polls: Greenwich 48.9% (swing of 9.9% on the booths), Liberal 29.8% (swing -5.1%), Greens 17.7% (swing 5.6%).

7.56pm. Much lower exhausted preferences rate on the basis of these eight booths: 8.5% compared with 14.3% last year. Presumably this is to do with the absence of Labor votes.

7.51pm. On a booth-matched basis, the eight booths reporting 2CP results show a 5.6% swing from Liberal to independent.

7.46pm. First two-candidate preferred figures, from eight booths, show a non-booth matched margin for Greenwich over Liberal of 15.9%.

7.36pm. The NSWEC disappointingly uploads 13 booths (which is most of them) in one hit, and Alex Greenwich’s win becomes even clearer: he’s on 49.2%, up 9.9% on Clover Moore on booth-matched basis, with Greens up 4.1% and Liberal down 4.5%.

7.07pm. And in case I’ve left any doubt there, Greenwich is clearly going to win.

7.06pm. Primary votes posted from four booths chime well with those just noted by Greenwich: him on 46.0%, Liberal on 34.7%, Greens on 16.5%. On a booth-matched basis, Greenwich is doing 5.7% better than Moore, while the Greens vote is up 3.6% and the Liberals down 2.5%. Given how low the Labor vote was at the election, that actually looks a respectable result for the Greens, and a poor one for the Liberals.

6.50pm. Guytaur in comments relates that Alex Greenwich has tweeted: “Early results from our scrutineers: Greenwich 44%, Liberals 37%, Greens 15%ׇ. Pointing to an easy win for him and yet another disappointing night for the Greens.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Sydney by-election: live commentary to follow. I won’t be going to town with booth-matched results and such on this occasion, but rest assured that Antony Green will be.

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48 comments

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edward o
Guest

The new seat should, as Antony Green suggests, be created around Drummoyne. Canada Bay is too big to fit in one electorate, and there’s bugger all community of interest between Rhodes and Drummoyne. Split them up rather than splitting up Sydney (historical precedent be damned).

Laocoon
Guest

A fascinating idea I picked up this morning.

The seat of Sydney is the second highest over quota in the state (reflecting lots of apartments). It will be changed significantly with the redistribution next year.

Given (1) the tremendous success of Greenwich and (2) how very different the area is from the norm average to which mainstream parties must appeal, would Clover chance her arm and endorse a candidate for another (new) seat in the inner city at the next general election?? Have a serious attempt at 2 inner city independents.

The idea may have some legs (depending on the redistribution)

edward o
Guest

I think Grayndler will be a bit safer for Albo next time, but Tanya Plibersek is in serious danger of losing to the Greens. Ultimo is a bizarre, bizarre area (so close to the city, yet so inconvenient, and has absolutely no useful public transport of which to speak other than the atrocious 501 bus), but its getting a growing citizen student population (it has always students, but mostly nonvoting ones) and those people are tribal Greens. Also, the already-existing trendoids probably reckon Bandt in Melbourne does more for their pet causes than Plibersek does in Sydney (this is somewhat unfair, but the perception is out there).

Laocoon
Guest

shellbell

True enough generally, but note the difference between the western suburbs of Sydney (i.e. in this context, Pyrmont area!) and the rest (from the Greens’ release)
[Strong Booth results for the Greens

St Barnabas Broadway: 31% (up 14%)

Ultimo Public: 26.7% (up 15%)

St Peters Surry Hills: 23.3% (up 10%)]
http://nsw.greens.org.au/content/greens-congratulate-alex-greenwich-sydney-victory

Which is more in the western federal seats, rather than Wentworth which is on the eastern part of Sydney

shellbell
Guest

Laocoon

There won’t be a repeat of the greens exerting any pressure on inner city Sydney at the next Fed election like Grayndler last time, that seems certain.

lyne lady
Guest

morning bludgers – kev’s last hurrah??? http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/kevin-rudds-description-of-leadership-coup/story-e6freuy9-1226504567073 this man will stoop to any depths – polls in news ltd suggest he should ‘shut up’… couldn’t agree more. bitter twisted man… sad really.

Laocoon
Guest

shellbell
I am with edward o…

Greenwich primary > Clover + ALP primary (at general election). He attracted some Liberals

deblonay
Guest

A Us website looks at Gillard’s Foreign Policies
________________
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Making-The-World-a-More-Da-by-John-Pilger-121026-982.html

edward o
Guest

If it’s a special kind of podium with four places on it, sure.

shellbell
Guest

If ALP had run, they might have snuck a podium finish.

Laocoon
Guest

I wonder if the exceptionally poor Liberal vote in its heartland of Woollahra reflects in part the party’s current combination of social “conservative”/reactionary (perhaps better term) policies and incoherent/incompetent economic policies (especially federally).

These are broader issues for brand Liberal than the state seat of Sydney

Woollahra is in Wentworth, that delivered a strong swing to Turnbull in the last federal election

Roy Orbison
Guest

Gladys will never be premier. The ugly face of the Liberal Party will be there for another six and a bit in which time they will actually send the state backwards. Nobody has to look any further than her idiotic NW railaway that won’t allow existing trains on it.

Kirsdarke
Guest

While I’m disappointed Labor didn’t run a candidate, I’m delighted that Greenwich has clearly beaten Mallard.

Perhaps it’s a message to the Liberals that no matter even if they pretend to be supportive of the LGBT community, the fact that their federal leader bullied LGBT people and their supporters, and was never held account for, or even regretted doing so, they’ll never win seats like this.

mbox
Guest

As a point – this is the third time that the state government has legislated against Clover. And every time, the government has been kicked in the head – first time, she got into parliament; second time, she won the Lord Mayoralty; third time, she has gotten her annointed successor into parliament with a huge swing. Moral of the story: stop trying to stop Clover – her electorate loves her!

mbox
Guest

Gladys Berejiklian was handing out how-to-vote at my booth. I would never vote for her party but I have to say she was good humoured, lovely to talk to, and down to earth. She might yet be Premier, and a good one. Still, very happy that Alex won with a huge swing to him!

Laocoon
Guest

I don’t know how Gladys makes this observation
[Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian said…

‘‘Our primary vote went up, which we are very pleased about,’’ she said.]

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/independent-wins-sydney-byelection-20121027-28cni.html#ixzz2AUbdkMYW

ShowsOn
Guest

John Robertson is a gutless moron who should resign. Labor should be contesting this seat!

Laocoon
Guest

OC

Gold!

The secret is to affect a studied, insouciant nonchalance 😛

lyne lady
Guest

OC – wow! that’d be a traffic stopper here in PM!

Oakeshott Country
Guest

I was driving to work at 7:30 last Monday morning and on the corner of Crown and Oxford calmly waiting for the lights to change was a man who looked exactly like Victor Meldrew. He was wearing a very short mini, boob tube and heels. The other pedestrians were taking no notice of him – I am not in Port Macquarie any more.

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