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NSW Politics

Nov 4, 2012

Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition

A lot has happened since Galaxy's last federal poll in mid-June – enough on this evidence to have lifted Labor three points, while still leaving them well short of the two-party parity recorded by Newspoll. Tony Abbott also cops the troubling finding that even Coalition voters now prefer Malcolm Turnbull.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll shows the Coalition leading 53-47, a three-point gain to Labor since the last national poll conducted by Galaxy, which was conducted in the Labor dark age of mid-June. The primary vote figures give Labor 35%, the Coalition down two to 47% (still well up on the other phone pollsters) and the Greens on 11% (down one). A question on preferred Liberal leader gives Malcolm Turnbull an advantage over Tony Abbott of such order (60% to 29%) as cannot be easily dismissed, with Turnbull even leading 51-45 among Liberal voters. Julia Gillard also trails in competition with Kevin Rudd 49% to 34%, which is the narrowest result in a head-to-head poll between the two since March last year. Most encouragingly for her, the improvement has been driven by Labor voters, among whom she leads 57% to 39%. However, only 25% said they believed her account of the 2010 leadership coup against 63% who said they did not believe her.

The following chart shows the results of head-to-head polling between Gillard and Rudd since the beginning of last year, as conducted by Nielsen (eight polls), Galaxy (six) and Newspoll (three).

UPDATE (5/11/12): Essential Research will not be reporting until Wednesday, but we have today a Morgan face-to-face poll derived from the last two weekends of surveying which shows a sharp improvement for the Coalition on a depressed showing last time. The Coalition primary vote has moved over three surveys from 43% to 38.5% and back to 43% – Morgan is selling the latest shift as a negative response to the mini-budget, but a far likelier explanation is that the previous result was simply an aberration. Labor is down two points to 35.5% and the Greens on 10%, down 2.5% from an unusually good result last time. On two-party preferred, the Coalition have a 52-48 lead on the previous election measure compared with a 52.5-47.5 deficit last time, while on respondent-allocated preferences a 50.5-49.5 deficit has turned into a lead of 53.5-46.5.

UPDATE (7/11/12): While attention was elsewhere, Essential Research published what by its standards was a solid move to Labor: they are up one point to 37%, with the Coalition down two to 46% the Greens steady on 9%. This amounts to a one-point drop in the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred, which is now at 53-47. The poll also has 20% of respondents approving of Christine Milne’s performance against 33% disapproval; 17% holding the Greens as having done a good job against 47% poor; and 53% thinking them too extreme against 26% as representing the views of many voters (remembering that Essential has become quite a tough series for the Greens recently). Further questions find respondents are all in favour of Asia, but divided 41-41 on expanding uranium mining and broadly wary of nuclear energy.

Some reviews of recent electoral events. Firstly and more recently is the Sydney by-election of last Saturday, October 27. This gave a clear win to Alex Greenwich, the independent candidate endorsed by the involuntarily departing Clover Moore. Labor did not a field a candidate in order to give Greenwich a clear run, but it hardly seems likely he would have been troubled had it been otherwise. Turnout was poor, in keeping with the recent trend of state by-elections.

SYDNEY STATE BY-ELECTION, NEW SOUTH WALES
October 27, 2012

					#	%	Swing	2PP	%
Alex Greenwich (Independent)		17,687	47.3%		21,283	63.7%
Shayne Mallard (Liberal)		11,543	30.9%	+5.3%	12,120	36.3%
Chris Harris (Greens)			6,616	17.7%	+4.9%
Glenn Wall (Independent)		825	2.2%
Robyn Peebles (Christian Democratic)	724	1.9%	+0.8%
Labor							-11.3%

Formal					37,395	97.2%	-0.6%	
Informal				1,062	2.8%	+0.6%
Enrolment/Turnout			61,428	62.6%	-21.3%

Secondly, the result of the ACT election of October 20 was resolved on Friday when the sole remaining Greens MP, Shayne Rattenbury, threw in his lot with Labor in a deal that will bring him into the ministry. The Liberals emerged from the count with the frail bragging right of a 41-vote win on the aggregate primary vote, but Labor achieved equality on seats, having gained a seat from the Greens in the five-member region of Ginninderra. The Liberals gained seats from the Greens in the five-member region of Brindabella and the seven-member region of Molonglo.

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY ELECTION
October 20, 2012

				Seats	#	%	Swing
Liberal				8 (+2)	86,032	38.9%	+7.3%
Labor				8 (+1)	85,991	38.9%	+1.5%	
Greens				1 (-3)	23,773	10.7%	-4.9%
Others				0 (-)	25,376	11.5%	-3.9%

Formal					221,172	96.5%	+0.3%
Informal				7,953	3.5%	-0.3%
Enrolment/Turnout			256,702	89.3%	-1.1%

Another feature of the election to be noted was the poor performance of the only published opinion poll, conducted by Patterson Market Research and published in the Canberra Times during the last week of the campaign. Patterson has a creditable track record with its large-sample polling, despite lacking the match fitness of outfits like Newspoll and Nielsen. On this occasion however the poll was by orders of magnitude in every direction, overstating Labor and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals and “others”. Cathy Alexander at Crikey reports the Liberals are greatly displeased about the poll, which they believe blunted their momentum. Pollster Keith Patterson defended his work in Saturday’s Canberra Times, and while he is commendably revealing on the question of methodology, the argument that the poll might have been brought unstuck by late shifts in voting intention, possibly initiated by the publication of the poll itself, is not entirely convincing.

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3686 comments

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Boerwar
Guest

The Opposition appears to be trying to do some running repairs to their tactics mid-QT: a clear sign of getting smashed and knowing it.

Toorak Toff
Guest

South Australia, one of the bastions of federation, has never had a High Court justice or a prime minister of Australia (though RJL Hawke was born at Bordertown).

No wonder we feel inferior.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler
Good response to that piece about beating the conservatives. I wonder if Obama has found the key to defeat the Fox Conservatives. He seemed to play right into their “trap” and then used their reaction against them. His first test was helping the car industry. The Fox Cons went nuclear. He went right to those people worried about their jobs in those swing states and said see I am trying to help you. He then pushed for Health Care reform with provision to offer free breast exams and birth control. The Fox cons went Nuclear. He went to women and… Read more »
BSA Bob
Guest

to the extent his wife, Margie, was moved to speak out in support of her husband.

I like to imagine that family conversation-
“Geez, darl, I’m real annoyed that those nasty left-wingers are saying you’re not the nice cuddly fella who really gets women that I know you are. Maybe I should go on a nationally orchestrated newspaper & TV campaign to set’em straight.”
“Yes hon, that’s a good idea. It shouldn’t be too hard to organise. I’ll make a few calls.”

We’ve all done it.

Rod Hagen
Guest
GG says – The call for a RC is a refrain that is often heard. However, can anyone really point to the substantive outcomes that may result from such an inquiry? Can you think of any other way of investigating a matter involving ongoing multiple child rapes in great numbers over many years (crimes potentially attracting life sentences) ; claims of cover up by the nation’s largest religious body; serious and supported allegations of police malfeasance in dealing with the matter in several States; & suggestions of the involvement of senior politicians in NSW? A Federal Royal Commission, with the… Read more »
Just Me
Guest
3488 Andrew [Why is that only Lisa Wilkinson can interview Abbott properly (saver perhaps one leigh sales, and one kerry interview)? The OM should be ashamed of themselves. Abbott reveals himself to be utterly vacant when pressed on any issue. I cant believe he doesnt even appear to do a little homework and talk in a bit more depth. He has nothing but the slogans] I am genuinely amazed at how shallow and superficial is Mr A. Is this all he and his political minders can come up with after 3 years? Really? I always thought the No Plan B… Read more »
Steve Clements
Guest

Leonie @3616

Hear hear. Your multiple experiences getting very expensive (and urgent) health trreatent mirror mine. I was diagnosed with a very large brain tumour (found to be benign), and was given the best treatment, post-haste, by one of Australia’s top neurosugeons and his team of approximately a dozen consultant neurologists. I didn’t have to pay a cent.

Thank God I live in Australia. I, too, think that much of the time private health cover is a crock.

Rossmore
Guest

Brilliant op Ed on the US election result

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=SVwXA7sHUlE

zoomster
Guest

My son started at Macquarie Uni this year (alas, he’s since dropped out) and was at a residential college there.

It had a very strict – to my mind, at the time, perhaps too strict – attitude to alcohol.

It was banned, full stop. No questions asked.

Students who wanted to drink had to leave the premises and go to a hotel or similar.

I just thought that was par for the course, nowadays.

BK
Guest
shellbell
Guest
shellbell
Guest

The SMH showcases two of the great modern journalists in Matt Peacock and Kate McClymont this morning. McClymont with more about another ‘colourful character’ to front ICAc and Peacock on asbestos and James Hardie.

Links to follow

Erasmus
Guest

Ian @ 3662,

Brilliant!!

Marrickville Mauler
Guest

J6P # 3625, yes thought the same thing, there is just nothing like the sound of those Merlins. (with all respect to everyone who flew anything else on any side of course)

On the other thing, please dont misunderstand, I ain’t calling for a witch hunt, I posted earlier today against the – all who dont call for a royal commission are evil – thing ; I do think though that serious reflection and accountability are in order

scorpio
Guest

Now “THIS” is what I call confidence.;-)

[ The site invited people to the inauguration in Washington on January 21, and included links to a newsroom and applications for jobs in the Romney administration.

“Please check back here in the coming weeks for more information and details about President-elect Romney’s inauguration,” the website said.

The screenshots showed three pages, including one with pictures of both Romney and his running mate, Representative Paul Ryan, described as “the vice president-elect.” ]

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/afp/2012/11/09/04/02/romney-transition-website-was-ready-to-go

Michael
Guest
Guytaur, earlier. I think you are wrong about the sucess of Royal Commissions in getting to the root of problems, and the Woods RC is a good example of a RC generating lots of good gossip, a few colourfull scalps, but bugger all real improvements. The most famous scalp from that RC was Trevor Haken, a baddie from central casting who gained no sympathy from anybody and deserver none. But he was just floss on the problems that faced Law Enforcement in Australia then, and still do. The Painters and Dockers was another colourfull inquiry that had a baddie for… Read more »
scorpio
Guest
I don’t think any of the child predators in the Christian Churches took this piece of Scripture literally or were frightened by it. This passage sticks out to me every time I hear or read about abuse in the church. My explanation is that they either don’t believe or they think that all they need to do each time they offend is go to confession with one of their mates who is most likely an offender also. [ And Jesus called a little child unto him, and set him in the midst of them, And said, Verily I say unto… Read more »
ShowsOn
Guest

BLOODY HELL!

scorpio
Guest
guytaur, [ SMH: Police called to St Johns Campus. Safe house hotel established for some students. ] I expect this lady in shining Armour will be racing to the rescue of these poor innocent victims that have been so wronghfully accused. And just because they come from rich and highly connected families and all. [ THE St John’s College mother who represented 32 of the 33 students involved in the poisoning of a teenage girl stands by her conviction that they have been treated unfairly, saying the rector’s behaviour was ”disturbing”. Caroline Ravenscroft, a criminal barrister, said she felt compelled… Read more »
rishane
Guest

Coorey already rewriting history. Surely the chronology isn’t *that* hard to get right.

[She blasted Mr Abbott as a sexist and a misogynist, and the speech resonated with many professional women, regardless of political leaning.

It was widely covered internationally, too, making headlines in the US, India, Canada, Britain and South Africa, and was watched on YouTube 300,000 times in one day.

Since then, Labor has been seeking to exploit Mr Abbott’s perceived unpopularity among women voters, to the extent his wife, Margie, was moved to speak out in support of her husband.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/now-its-obamas-turn-to-raise-gillard-speech-20121109-293di.html#ixzz2BjRzw7cx%5D

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

frednk,

There are good people every where.

Apart from some undefined notion that an RC is a magical deodorising cureall, my point stands.

WeWantPaul
Guest

[As it is the stink is effecting everything they do, which is very unfair.]

Only where people armed with limited knowledge pre-judge and damn the whole organization and its members on heresay and prejudice.

frednk
Guest
[Greensborough Growler Posted Friday, November 9, 2012 at 10:38 pm | Permalink The call for a RC is a refrain that is often heard. However, can anyone really point to the substantive outcomes that may result from such an inquiry? It seems that many have already made up their minds and are now looking for a Government funded inquisition to provide the evidence to support their bigotry/opinions/special knowledge.] There a good people in the catholic church, they do not deserve this. A royal commission would give the church a fresh start. As it is the stink is effecting everything they… Read more »
Ian
Guest
There is much in this world that I don’t know. There is much,much more that I don’t understand. But, there is something I do know. The path to an understanding of your God does not start with the bloodied vaginas, scarred anuses, broken spirits and tortured souls of the innocent. To be given the responsibility of teaching the young and vulnerable the strength and beauty of spiritual light whilst predating from the very shadows it seeks to overcome is evil in its most malevolent form. That this evil was dealt with in an, apparently, systemic and refined system of transfers… Read more »
C@tmomma
Guest

fiona,
Yes! 😀

Oakeshott Country
Guest

Leone
The question that arises is who does the operation and that can be a very important question.

fiona
Guest

Goodnight C@tmomma.

And goodnight all.

C@tmomma
Guest

SMH: Police called to St Johns Campus. Safe house hotel established for some students.

Tomorrows Herald

Just ‘boys being boys’ again?

A good time for a PM to be an atheist.

Good night all. 🙂

fiona
Guest

C@tmomma,

I’ve been meaning to ask – are you past the horrors of exams and into the even worse horrors of waiting for the results???

C@tmomma
Guest

HSO,
Get it?

You don’t have to keep putting those nasty retorts at the end of your posts. I get it already! I was simply casting around for some sort of solution to this diabolical problem. OK?

leone
Guest
TLBD [What it gives me is that when I go to my GP she refers me to a specialist] Same here but without the expense of private cover. When I’ve needed a specialist I’ve been referred to one. Sometimes that specialist has referred me on to another. I’ve never been refused access or excellent treatment because I am a Medicare patient. You do not need private cover to get good specialist treatment. This is just one of the myths private health insurers love to push – ‘You can have the doctor of your choice’. I’ve proved that line to be… Read more »
Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

OC,

Yes, No , Maybe!

But, not yet!

guytaur
Guest

GG

😆

Good try I just said you show the same prejudice. Gave examples of other areas such prejudice is used.
Do not care. The march for Marriage Equality continues.
Some more has happened in the US.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

So in fact he was accusing you of being an anti-misceginist,

Harry "Snapper" Organs
Guest
Harry "Snapper" Organs

Joe & TLBD, so we just go with the intermittent and weird?
Sounds sort of Zen and the art of Pollbludger maintenance.
Catch you tomorrow.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

Above a certain income you pay an extra levy if you do not have private health cover. The figure is set so that it makes economic sense to be privately insured – of course whether the rich then use the insurance is another thing.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

OC,

Fair point.

The context was Guytaur managed to accuse me of being opposed to mixed race marriages, the murder of blacks and in favour of sending Jews to the ovens during Hitler’s regime because I oppose homosexual marriage in Australia.

He also expects me to take him seriously.

guytaur
Guest

SMH: Police called to St Johns Campus. Safe house hotel established for some students.

Tomorrows Herald

fiona
Guest

HSO,

I’m fairly sure that I know what you mean, and I agree – not for discussion in a family blog such as PB.

Leone,

My fire extinguisher is at your service any time.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Oakeshott Country@3644


I think my says argument is that Medicare can be seen as a form of middle class welfare. I tend to agree as does the current government which is slowly and subtly introducing a means test.

How are they doing this?

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Good to have intercourse with you all. See you later.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

I think my says argument is that Medicare can be seen as a form of middle class welfare. I tend to agree as does the current government which is slowly and subtly introducing a means test.

Joe6pack
Guest

Must go now, quick trip to Murgon tomorrow morning. have a good night

fiona
Guest
My Say, Just to reassure you, my dad left school at 14 at the height of the Great Depression and did more than his share of sleeping rough before eventually WW2 came along. So stop imagining that I’m a silvertail, because I’m not. And where did I state that all the young girls (and they were girls, not women) who were in the laundries (not just in Hobart) were from Catholic families? Because I know only too well (from extended family reports) that girls from other denominations were likewise incarcerated. That’s my major complaint, My Say: it was “religious people”… Read more »
Harry "Snapper" Organs
Guest
Harry "Snapper" Organs

C@tmomma, I and probably no one else has the comparative rates of clergy abuse of children across different religious afiliations, though it raises interesting questions.
I’ve certainly not seen any research on comparative rates and I don’t think it’s where it’s at in terms of its occurrence.
All I was trying to say is that in terms of what we do know, access to adult female sexual relationships is only a factor for this being less than fulfilling for them. Get it?

guytaur
Guest

@TelegraphNews: New Archbishop Justin Welby pledges re-think on gay marriage via @Telegraph http://t.co/XeH6ek0n

C@tmomma
Guest

ThisLittleBlackDuck,
My son is about to go in for surgery to be performed by a team of the best Maxillofacial Surgeons in this country at Westmead Dental Hospital. We are Public Patients. We got to see them and be treated by them as soon as Private Patients. For free.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

GG 3611
Who accused whon of being a misceginist. Is miscegeny a bad thing.

guytaur
Guest

GG

There you go two examples of community sentiment

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