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US Politics

Nov 6, 2012

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If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can observe my reading of the situation here, which concludes thus:

I don’t see any reason to bet against the view shared by FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics state polling averages: that Obama will win the electoral college 303 to 235, carrying Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, while falling short in Florida and North Carolina.

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Utopia
Guest
Ruawake: After a poll came out with a clear ALP win in Vic election I posted this: [Mod Lib
Posted Friday, October 29, 2010 at 10:10 pm | Permalink
Confess, I comPletely misread this one (althogh no a Victorian so can be excused)! I thought this was going to be a surprise cliffhanger with narrow minority gov , similar to feds. oh well, lets see how it turns out.] US elections: [Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 12:46 am | PERMALINK 
I was out, so sorry for the delay! However, I am not changing my earlier prediction- Obama 332 (just minor… Read more »
Toorak Toff
Guest

Obama finally declared the winner of Florida by 74,000 votes.

BSA Bob
Guest

Let’s hope the shade of Joe Bageant’s looking across the Styx at all this with a smile on its face.

deblonay
Guest

Fom the excellent “American Prospect ” site…looking at the fate of “the whiteman’s party” in California
________________________
A great piece on how the Immigrants vote has changed California and how the Repubs are unable to counter this

In the state election on the same day as the Pres.poll the Democrats captured 2/3 of the state seats and all major state officers.
They carried a referendum for icreased taxes on the rich by lands tax and death duties…thus helping the ailing school system and the medical services too
a great article on the demographic changes there

http://prospect.org/article/future-white-mans-party

ShowsOn
Guest

Romney campaign spent $25K on fireworks for victory ceremony:
http://www.capitolhillblue.com/node/45630

Fran Barlow
Guest

ShowsOn:

[Can you believe that the Democrats won the popular House of Representatives vote with a current margin of 500,000 votes, yet they didn’t go close to claiming even 50% of the seats?]

Yes I can

[That’s because Republicans at a state level have drawn some of the most idiotic looking electoral boundaries of all time.]

True. Apparently the advantages of incumbency are so great that only about 10% of seats are even contests. They are walkovers for one party of the other.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
There’s a CNN exit poll (http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president#exit-polls) that for me spells out in one big stat why Romney failed. (Of course there are many contributing factors including Romney being not a particularly good candidate but this for me is the big one.) The question was who is more to blame for current American economic problems. Response: Obama 38% George W Bush 53%. The Republicans tried to remove Obama by blaming him for the state of the economy, since this was really the only serious argument for not giving him another term. Outside of existing Republican sympathisers (32% of respondents were registered… Read more »
Toorak Toff
Guest

Basically, the electorate preferred a smart half-black man with a Muslim name to a multi-millionaire Mormon who drove to Canada with the family dog strapped on the roof.

Politics made simple.

Utopia
Guest

Nebraska-2:

Still can’t seem to find exact results for the NE-2 electoral college vote…..

I know Obama lost it clearly, but would be interested to see the swings if anyone can get there hands on it. What I can find is:
1. House NE-2 district only went to the Republicans by 2.4% (hardly a landslide!)
2. Presidential NE-2 is largely Douglas county which went Romney by 4%
3. Presidential NE-2 also includes the urban part of Sarpy County (the whole of Sarpy went Romney 61-37)

…it would just be interesting to see how Obama would have done on NE-2’s old boundaries

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Someone suggested that the $600 million that super-PACs spent to defeat Obama may have sti9mulated economic activity enough to ensure his re-election!]

😆

Although, realistically, looking at the size of the US economy, that’s unlikely. But still, even if slightly true, it is very much the textbook definition of irony!

Toorak Toff
Guest

Someone suggested that the $600 million that super-PACs spent to defeat Obama may have sti9mulated economic activity enough to ensure his re-election!

kakuru
Guest
ShowsOn @ 1455 [ Can you believe that the Democrats won the popular House of Representatives vote with a current margin of 500,000 votes, yet they didn’t go close to claiming even 50% of the seats?] Wow. I actually didn’t know the margin was that big. Unbelievable. No wait – totally believable. Nothing about the US electoral system surprises me any more. [That’s because Republicans at a state level have drawn some of the most idiotic looking electoral boundaries of all time.] Yes, that they have. The boundaries are designed to maintain the status quo. Here’s a great article on… Read more »
ShowsOn
Guest
The U.S. HAS a Federal Electoral Commission: http://www.fec.gov/ It simply doesn’t have powers to do the most basic things an electoral commission needs to do. For example, ensuring that districts are gerrymandered, ensuring that the same ballot format is used nation-wide, ensuring that there are polling places distributed properly throughout the entire country. Can you believe that the Democrats won the popular House of Representatives vote with a current margin of 500,000 votes, yet they didn’t go close to claiming even 50% of the seats? That’s because Republicans at a state level have drawn some of the most idiotic looking… Read more »
Tom Hawkins
Guest

[Forget all the policies…]

Why? Because Tories/Repub/LNP types want to pretend that their policies are as fundamentally decent is Labour/Democrat/Labor policies? Well that’s NOT the case. If you are uncomfortable with your party’s policies then try and do something about it within the party but don’t pretend that the US result is because O is a nice guy. There was a philosophical debate that took place and THAT is what decided the election.

Toorak Toff
Guest

You know, Mod Lib, I think you’re on to something. Forget all the policies, campaigning etc. The key to Obama’s win is that people like him.

Wakefield
Guest

Is there a constitutional problem with US Federal legislation providing for an independent electoral commission?

Utopia
Guest

http://www.politico.com/politico44/?hp=44

Obama emotional when talking to his staff.

How could anyone not like this man?

🙂

ShowsOn
Guest
HOW HILARIOUS IS THIS! The Romney campaign was SHOCKED that they lost because their computer system, called ORCA, told them they were going to win! [Some Romney aides were surprised too, especially since they had put an enormous amount of effort into tracking the hour-by-hour whims of the electorate. In recent weeks the campaign came up with a super-secret, super-duper vote monitoring system that was dubbed Project Orca. The name “Orca,” after the whale, was apparently chosen to suggest that the project was bigger than anything any other campaign, including Barack Obama’s in 2008, had ever imagined. For the project,… Read more »
Zorro
Guest
The biggest, practically unsurmountable barrier to an “American AEC” is the U.S. Constitution and its provisions for the election of the President: The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows: Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress; […]… Read more »
kakuru
Guest

[However an independent universal electoral body should be something to push for in the US. Even if it’s an uphill battle, it should start being enthusiastically advocated.]

It’s more than just an uphill battle. It’s positively Sisyphean. The states will never surrender this power to the feds.

bemused
Guest

Carey Moore@1447


The biggest barriers to an “AEC” are:

1. Partisanship of legislatures
2. The entire structure of the US Civil Service being partisan in nature
3. For a federal agency, constitutionality. Even if this is a grey area, I am unsure the Roberts Court would consider it constitutional.

However an independent universal electoral body should be something to push for in the US. Even if it’s an uphill battle, it should start being enthusiastically advocated…

PMJG should make an offer to Obama for Australian assistance to implement democracy in the US. What they have at present is a sham.

Rational Leftist
Guest

The biggest barriers to an “AEC” are:

1. Partisanship of legislatures
2. The entire structure of the US Civil Service being partisan in nature
3. For a federal agency, constitutionality. Even if this is a grey area, I am unsure the Roberts Court would consider it constitutional.

However an independent universal electoral body should be something to push for in the US. Even if it’s an uphill battle, it should start being enthusiastically advocated…

kakuru
Guest
A US equivalent of the AEC would be a great idea. But it will never happen. The states will never support it. State legislatures want to hold on to the privilege of deciding boundaries for federal districts. This allows rampant gerrymandering, by designing boundaries that give “their” side the advantage in House elections. Its seen as one of the perks of being in power – and completely legal. For example, a recent “redistribution” (re-districting) of GOP-dominated Texas created some really odd-shaped districts, with one particular district designed to quarantine a large chunk of the Hispanic vote into one snake-like district.… Read more »
Steve777
Guest

Yes, the USA can learn a lot from Australia about how to implement democracy: an independent, national body like the AEC to conduct elections; uniform voting practices and methods across the country; preferential voting; compulsory voting; and legislated support for one vote, one value.

Toorak Toff
Guest
The electoral map has changed enormously since JFK squeaked home with possibly dodgy wins in Texas and Illinois. Now, for a couple more elections at least, Texas remains Bush red and Illinois is indelibly Obama blue. Florida continues to be an embarrassment. The predidential count is 97% completed and Obama is some 45,000 votes ahead, but the final result is not expected till Saturday our time. This is partly due to Repug attempts to suppress the Democratic. Previously people would pour out of the black churches and vote at pre-poll booths. But Sunday pre-poll voting was ended. Republican Governor Rick… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest
Obama has won Florida. Thus the final EV is 332-206 to Obama The Final Senate tally is in too. As of 3 January 2013, the composition will be 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans and 2 (left or liberal) independents. As for the House, there are still 6 seats to be called. In 5 of them, the Democratic candidates have narrow leads, the 6th one is in Louisiana and thus, due to the state’s electoral laws, will go to a run-off election in a few weeks time, but both runoff candidates will be Republicans so we can call this seat Republican, so… Read more »
kakuru
Guest
Mod Lib @ 1438 [ Then all the Democrat needs to do is win ONE of the FOUR states they have won for the last decade: (29 ECV) Florida: 1% & 2% (18 ECV) Ohio: 2% & 4% (13 ECV) Virginia: 3% & 6% (9 ECV) Colorado:4% & 6%] Of these, I think Virginia and Colorado are the Dem’s best chancess. Both states have seen influxes of new, left-leaning voters (especially in northern Virginia, which is essentially greater DC), and the trend is likely to continue. Ohio typically leans Republican, and its demographics are fairly stable. Obama was helped along… Read more »
kakuru
Guest

Mod Lib @ 1437

[ Does anyone know how Obama did in Nebraska 2 in 2012? ]

I don’t have any numbers, but I can summarise in one word: Badly.

After Obama carried Nebraska 2 in 2008, the Nebraska state legislature changed the boundaries to make it harder for a Democrat to win it again. It was a deliberate act of gerrymandering by the Republican-dominated legislature, embarrassed by what happened in 2008.

deblonay
Guest

ISLAMAPHOBIC CAUSES MEMBERS SWEPT OUT OF HOUSE
_______________________
http://mondoweiss.net/2012/11/key-members-of-the-congressional-islamophobia-caucus-swept-from-c

deblonay
Guest

A NY Jewish left-blog..Mondoweis” sees the result as a defeat for the hard-zionist right who funded Romney and others with huge sums of money
for no gains

http://mondoweiss.net/

Utopia
Guest
Interesting how things might pan out for the next few POTUS elections: The Democrat “Base” electoral college vote is 247. This is made up of all the states that have chosen the Democrat in the last 6 elections. Then there are 3 states which have had margins >5% in the last decade (the “Lean”): Nevada: 6% & 12% (2012 & 2008) Iowa: 5% & 9% New Hampshire: 5% & 9% With these 3 “Leans” plus the “Base” the Democrat gets to 263 ECV. Then all the Democrat needs to do is win ONE of the FOUR states they have won… Read more »
Utopia
Guest

Carey:

Well said!

Does anyone know how Obama did in Nebraska 2 in 2012?

Rational Leftist
Guest

Obama won emphatically, winning over 300 electoral votes and a majority (not a plurality) of the popular vote. His party also made gains in the Senate and a modest gain in the gerrymandered-to-death House.

The swing states were close because… they were swing states.

No spin can change this, Obama won clearly and concisely.

deblonay
Guest
deblonay
Guest

an odd (racist?) cartoon in the OZ
(has anyone heard a Tweet out of Rupert who must be spitting chips…he liked Romney but just loved Ryan

deblonay
Guest

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/07/us-usa-campaign-israel-palestinians-idUSBRE8A61D920121107
__________________see above

Reuters looks at Netanyahu’s problem He and the Zionist Lobby spent a fortune on attacks on Obama on US TV..with an infamous add in Florida with Netanyahuu in a role and funded by Adelson” who rejoices in the title of “the Richest Jew in America” is said to have spent 70 million dollars on the anti-Obama campaign

Netanyahu who thought that Romeny would support a war in the Gulf now has to face Obama…never a friend but now a man who owes the Israeli nothing and knows all…interesting times for Netanyahu after a major blunder

Utopia
Guest

I agree!

ShowsOn
Guest

[I think the issue with Florida might be the 0.5% recount provision. They just need to be sure it is just above that level….if it is just below that level then they need to do a recount.]
There’s something like 200,000 pre-poll ballots that haven’t been counted, but many of them are from a county that Obama won with 62% of the vote, so I expect Obama’s lead to just get bigger.

Utopia
Guest

I think the issue with Florida might be the 0.5% recount provision. They just need to be sure it is just above that level….if it is just below that level then they need to do a recount.

I will resist the huge temptation to point out that I picked Obama to win Florida by 0.5% (about where it is currently) as I have too much class to gloat….

😉

Utopia
Guest
This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck
gloryconsequence
Guest

He’s got it. Just be patient.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

They still haven’t sorted Florida. I want my cherry on top of the luscious Obama cake.

gloryconsequence
Guest

“I don’t think we should get ahead of ourselves”. Hahaha.

Leroy Lynch
Guest
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/us/politics/little-to-show-for-cash-flood-by-big-donors.html [Little to Show for Cash Flood by Big Donors By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE and JESS BIDGOOD Published: November 7, 2012 At the private air terminal at Logan Airport in Boston early Wednesday, men in unwrinkled suits sank into plush leather chairs as they waited to board Gulfstream jets, trading consolations over Mitt Romney’s loss the day before. …………. And as calls came in on Wednesday from some of the donors who had poured more than $300 million into the pair of big-spending outside groups founded in part by Karl Rove — perhaps the leading political entrepreneur of the super PAC… Read more »
gloryconsequence
Guest

“I’ve just had a note that the turnout is way down in Wisconsin… there’s 10 electoral votes”.

So funny.

gloryconsequence
Guest

“He worked so closely with Democrats in Massachussetts”.

Then both of them mentioning sea levels and warming the planet.

I mean seriously, that’s just a cut and paste from Romney’s stump speech.

“I’ve got some information from swing states” as if he’s privvy to it.

gloryconsequence
Guest

William – that Alan Jones segment is great. He’s reading out Fox News talking points.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Rod Hagen:

Nixon ran one of the dirtiest campaigns in US history (his re-electiion campaign was entitled “CREEP” — so strangely apt) against McGovern so perhaps his effort in 1972 should be discounted on Lance Armstrong grounds.

Bush Jnr of course ran as a war President and ran one of the dirtier campaigns {the “Swiftboat” meme} against Kerry — and even then Obama probably will top his 2004 percentage this time around.

poroti
Guest

Fran Barlow

Dick Morris, the Republican Party’s very own Comical Ali.

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