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Seat of the week: Boothby

Last held by Labor in 1949, the southern Adelaide suburbs seat of Boothby has been trending in the party's direction since the early Howard years.

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UPDATE (12/11/12): Essential Research has Labor gaining ground for the second week in a row to attain their best position since March last year. They now trail 52-48, down from 53-47, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are monthly personal approval ratings, which last time had both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech. Whereas Gillard has maintained her gains, her approval steady at 41% approval and disapproval down two to 49%, Tony Abbott has fallen to his worst net result ever, his approval down four to 33% and disapproval up four to a new low of 58%. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011. Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

The southern Adelaide electorate of Boothby covers coastal suburbs from Brighton south to Marino, extending inland to edge of the coastal plain at Myrtle Bank and the hills at Belair, Eden Hills, Bellevue Heights and Flagstaff Hill. The seat’s Liberal lean is softened by the area around the defunct Tonsley Park Mitsubishi plant, the only part of the electorate with below average incomes and above average ethnic diversity. The redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 0.8% to 0.3% by adding about 10,000 in Aberfolye Park from Mayo in the south, and removing 4000 voters at Myrtlebank to Sturt and 1500 at Edwardstown to Hindmarsh.

Boothby was created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, at which time it was landlocked and extended north into the eastern suburbs. Its coastal areas were acquired when the neighbouring electorate of Hawker was abolished in 1993. Labor held the seat for the first eight years of its existence, and remained competitive until the Menzies government was elected in 1949. This began a long-term trend to the Liberals which peaked in the 1970s, when margins were consistently in double digits. Former Premier and Liberal Movement figurehead Steele Hall held the seat from 1981 until he was succeeded by Andrew Southcott in 1996.

A positive swing in the difficult 2004 election had Labor hopeful of going one better in 2007, inspiring Right powerbrokers to recruit what they imagined to be a star candidate in Nicole Cornes, a minor Adelaide celebrity and wife of local football legend Graham Cornes. However, Cornes only managed a 2.4% swing against a statewide result of 6.8% after a series of disastrous campaign performances. Labor again had high hopes at the 2010 election, seeing in the seat a potential gain to balance anticipated losses in Queensland and New South Wales. However, while the Labor swing of 2.2% outperformed a statewide result of 0.8%, perhaps reflecting a suppressed vote in 2007, it fell 0.8% short of what was required.

Andrew Southcott came to the seat at the age of 26 after winning preselection at the expense of fellow moderate Robert Hill, the faction’s leading light in the Senate. Tony Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that the Right had built up strength in local branches with a view to unseating its hated rival Steele Hall, and when denied by his retirement turned its guns on Hill as a “surrogate”. Unlike Hill, who went on to become government leader in the Senate, Southcott has led an unremarkable parliamentary career, finally winning promotion after the 2007 election defeat to the Shadow Minister for Employment Participation, Apprenticeships and Training. However, he was demoted to parliamentary secretary when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, after backing Malcolm Turnbull in the leadership vote.

Southcott’s preselection for the coming election was challenged by former state party president Chris Moriarty, following disquiet in the party over his fundraising record. However, Moriarty was only able to manage 35 votes in the February 2012 party ballot against 195 for Southcott, support for his challenge reportedly evaporating as the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge came to a head. Southcott will again face his Labor opponent from 2010, Annabel Digance, a former nurse and SA Water Board member factionally aligned with the Right.

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2169 comments

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crikey whitey
Guest

So whomever put up Frank Brennan as GG should surely have a change of mind.

crikey whitey
Guest

Watching Lateline late.

Gobsmacked that Brennan would offer, as I suppose he means that, a defence of abusers.

That, released from the church, they would offend against their own children.

Meaning what?

deblonay
Guest

Cardinal Pedll and his statements on Climate Change
__________________
If you want to condemn Pell read his stupid anti-climate change rhetoric.
He is a shockling reactionary..even the Pope isn’t as bad on this matter

deblonay
Guest

POST” SANDY” PROBLEMS IN NY
“No Heat,No Light No sign of any relief “>>>>>>>
____________________________
This article from :Counterpounch” looks at the real suffering of many people in parts of the USA where after 10 days there is no power and no sight of any real relief for Hurricane victims…and where there is a growing sense of alarm at the effects of climate change

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/11/12/the-aftermath-of-of-hurricane-sandy/

Dario
Guest

FFS Lateline. Manages to get all the negative angles for the govt on the RC announcement it can. ‘Pressure’ on the government, then an interview with one priest who says the terms are too broad, and then this Brennan clown saying it’s a government ‘on the ropes’. Absolutely incredible.

briefly
Guest
[2085 Laocoon …….one of the benefits that accrues with incumbency is that people begin to identify the characteristics of the individual as being “primeministerial”, that this was starting with Gillard, and that this was very bad news for Abbott] I agree. I think it is fairly understandable that people want to identify with and show loyalty for their leaders, whoever they might turn out to be. This is a more or less involuntary behaviour. In JG’s case, several things have happened that have freed up popular willingness to affiliate with her as “Leader”, though there was widespread refusal to accept… Read more »
frednk
Guest

[my say
Posted Monday, November 12, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

but i bet all of you celebrate christmas]

My say what has happened is indefensible. Lay Catholics should be encouraging the exposure of this evil.

bemused
Guest

my say@2156


well i see the catholic bashing is still going on

you know who your are,

give a rest will you, it doesnt realy seem very educated

to talk about one institution alone,

no wonder state aid is an issue will that be next

some people are addicted to finding fault wth the catholic

church and chrstians as a whole

but i bet all of you celebrate christmas

Please give specific examples of ‘Catholic bashing’ or if you can’t then please stop your whingeing.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

If you want my take (non-professional)on it, it is a load of hocus-pocus and should not ever be used as evidence.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

My Say,
It is not to do with Christmas. Christmas will be better for everybody with the paedophiles out of the church. And it is not just the CC, or any church, or just Christians. Just focus on the good which will come out of this. This is like the moneychangers being tossed out of the Temple. Only this time it is the people who abuse children.

bemused
Guest

William Bowe@2130


Can ShowsOn and GG wrap it up please.

Awww William, it is entertaining.
Have you had a humour bypass?

fiona
Guest

[but i bet all of you celebrate christmas]

I have always understood that the most important event of the Christian year is Easter.

But then, I’m just a little ignorant non-Catholic, aren’t I?

bemused
Guest

shellbell@2120


From another perspective the analysis of the effectiveness of recovered memory techniques would be useful as this informs a number of complaints made against accuseds.

As I understand it, victims who have received such treatment do not have their complaints pursued by prosecuting authorities.

I happen to know a bloke who went to gaol as a result of such ‘recovered memory’ allegations by female relative. Not a single relative believed any of it but no matter, off to gaol he went, and he and his wife were financially ruined.

Such allegations need to be treated with great care.

my say
Guest

well i see the catholic bashing is still going on

you know who your are,

give a rest will you, it doesnt realy seem very educated

to talk about one institution alone,

no wonder state aid is an issue will that be next

some people are addicted to finding fault wth the catholic

church and chrstians as a whole

but i bet all of you celebrate christmas

bemused
Guest
Bushfire Bill@2113 Very moving and scary program on asbestos. Most of us – whether we realise it or not – live under the threat of that devil’s dust. Who hasn’t renovated involving fibro? Or a thousand and one other things that rotten stuff was in? They say it takes up to 50 years in some cases. Yes, my father, brother and I were certainly exposed when I was in high school. A cousin worked at Hardies and when dad was going to put in a path, my cousin kindly supplied all this asbestos cement powder which we shovelled and transported… Read more »
The Finnigans
Guest

Newspoll 51-49 2PP LNP PV LNP 43, ALP 36 Greens 10 PPM: Gillard 46, Abbott 32 – i will take that as BISONian, no prob at all

ShowsOn
Guest

[ministers of religion (with the exception of disclosures made in the confessional)]
There shouldn’t be an exemption for the confessional. That is just idiocy.

fiona
Guest

My Say,

I repeat: just scroll on past me.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

that should be AFAIK

confessions
Guest
[I agree that all allegations regarding organisational abuse or by people in protective roles should be mandatorily referred.] This report indicates that SA has the most far-reaching laws for mandatory notifications: Who is mandated to notify? SA: [Doctors; pharmacists; registered or enrolled nurses; dentists; psychologists; police officers; community corrections officers; social workers; teachers; family day care providers; employees/volunteers in a government department, agency or instrumentality, or a local government or non-government agency that provides health, welfare, education, sporting or recreational, child care or residential services wholly or partly for children; ministers of religion (with the exception of disclosures made in… Read more »
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Shellbell
I have an huge distrust of the concept of recovered memories. The whole thing is open to manipulation. ASAIK, trauma is more likely to imprint memory than repress it. It is the memories that cannot be forgotten that cause long term problems for victims.

BK
Guest

And here, in the light of the latest NewsPoll, is a song for Tone.
http://tinyurl.com/axtc7h2

my say
Guest

[I thought that reasoned argument was at least one of the prerequisites.]

well we certainly speak a differnt language you and i
so i suppoe we want be communicating

]

my say
Guest

[I thought that reasoned argument was at least one of the prerequisites.]

well we certainly speak a differnt language you and i
so i suppoe we want be communicating

]

shellbell
Guest

Pity a state by state breakdown is a little way off so we can start thinking about seats in play – must inform preselection

fiona
Guest

Diogenes,

[The effectiveness of recovered memory techniques has been analysed in many journals.

It’s complete crap and is not admissible as evidence.]

The “killer”, so to speak, would have to be that case in WA, where a daughter accused her father of “satanic” rituals. Later, retracted on the ground that wtte “it was something that happened to me in a previous life”.

However, repressed memory syndrome is far better documented.

Centre
Guest

What, Kate Ellis and David Penberthy?

Nah, nah, sorry, might be a bit rude but, Kate you can do much better 😯

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Showsy,

More pissing myself laughing at your post hoc rationalisations.

shellbell
Guest

One of the most hazardous occupations for asbestos used to be toll collectors because of the extensive use of asbestos in brake linings.

ShowsOn
Guest

[OC,

You reckon only $50 mill.

The way people’s expectations are shaping up, this will be costing a motza; 3-5 times that.]
Wow, $250 million, BIG DEAL. There are victims of some of the most horrendous crimes who have gone decades without justice, and all you seem to care about is the MONEY!?

What a weak argument, you should be ashamed of yourself.

my say
Guest

but i do find people with the least education are sometimes the nicest

but also listen to motzart and other composers actully i have my head phones on now listning to panio music

amazing grace

Oakeshott Country
Guest

Sorry should have added the recommendations.
1. PM to make an apology in parliament
2. Police and public prosecutors to persue cases -except those who now have immunity as a result of the commission
3. Government to set up a compensation fund
4. Mandatory reporting

James J
Guest

Newspoll

51-49 2PP to the coalition

Primaries: Coalition 43, ALP 36 , Greens 10

Better PM: Gillard 46, Abbott 32

Gillard: Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 52

Abbott: Satisfied 27, Dissatisfied 63

fiona
Guest
BB, [Who hasn’t renovated involving fibro? Or a thousand and one other things that rotten stuff was in? They say it takes up to 50 years in some cases.] Back in 1968 I found my father sawing away at a piece of asbestos cement. I did my block: Where is your mask? What the hell are you doing to yourself and to us? (I was only 13, but was already wised-up to the dangers.) Three months ago, the next stage of the laundry renovation was happening. OH assured me that there was no, but no asbestos anywhere at all at… Read more »
ShowsOn
Guest

[You’d get a huge number of crap allegations which would take forever to sort, leaving scarce resources for the serious genuine cases.]
If they are crap allegations shouldn’t that become apparent pretty quickly?

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

OC,

You reckon only $50 mill.

The way people’s expectations are shaping up, this will be costing a motza; 3-5 times that.

Diogenes
Guest

Shellbell

[From another perspective the analysis of the effectiveness of recovered memory techniques would be useful as this informs a number of complaints made against accuseds.

As I understand it, victims who have received such treatment do not have their complaints pursued by prosecuting authorities.]

The effectiveness of recovered memory techniques has been analysed in many journals.

It’s complete crap and is not admissible as evidence.

bemused
Guest

confessions@2094


as i said we deserve an apology,


Sorry, but I can’t agree. Who was it who ridiculously suggested that those arguing for a royal commission into this affair wanted xmas cancelled!

confessions, on this occasion I am firmly on your side. Now don’t faint or anything. 😉

BH
Guest

Am following this blog from Paris…yes, someone has to do it

Erasmus – Ah, I’m deadset jealous but you have redeemed yourself by keeping abreast the reports over there re PM.

confessions
Guest

[SOME Catholic priests have used guns, knives and dogs in their sexual assaults on children and women, an inquiry has heard.]

Ugh! It just gets worse.

I agree with rummel: let that sun shine in, long and hard.

Oakeshott Country
Guest

About 5 years ago the NSW government attempted to introduce mandatory reporting of all cases of under age sex.

Given the current age of first sexual experience, The AMA objected that GPs would not have time to see patients

my say
Guest

fiona

i dont beleive i have ever talked about u

not once

why would i

my say
Guest

fiona

i dont beleive i have ever talked about u

not once

why would i

ShowsOn
Guest

[It’s just you’ve mentioned the “Lord Voldemort” organisation in just about every post tonight.]
As is my right. The fact this bothers you so much is not my concern.

[It’s well known you hate everybody and everything.]
WOAH! That’s a pretty broad statement, do you think you may want to re-evaluate your terms of reference?

[So, you keep pedalling your bile. It’s all you’ve got.]
Well it seems I’ve pissed you off so that’s something else that you didn’t mention.

Leroy Lynch
Guest

dear oh dear…

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/federal-childcare-minister-kate-ellis-and-news-limited-editor-david-penberthy-engaged-to-marry/story-e6frea83-1226515341911
[Federal Childcare Minister Kate Ellis and News Limited editor David Penberthy engaged to marry
adelaidenow
November 12, 2012 5:34PM]

zoidlord
Guest

Bill Shorten ‏@billshortenmp

Very powerful show + a powerful reminder that there’s still more to be done to fight the scourge of asbestos #DevilsDust

confessions
Guest

[There 18 months and 50 million dollars saved.]

And no leverage for change achieved whatsoever.

shellbell
Guest

From another perspective the analysis of the effectiveness of recovered memory techniques would be useful as this informs a number of complaints made against accuseds.

As I understand it, victims who have received such treatment do not have their complaints pursued by prosecuting authorities.

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