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Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll's recent run of erratic form has come to an end with a voting intention result only slightly different from last fortnight's. However, there's a significant move on Tony Abbott's personal rating – and once again, it's downwards.

James J reports Newspoll has ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour, so that they now lead 51-49 on two-party preferred. This is down to a two-point increase in their primary vote to 43%, with Labor steady on 36% and the Greens steady on 10%. There is yet again bad news for Tony Abbott on personal ratings: his approval is down three points to 27% and his disapproval is up five to 63%. This marks a new low for him on net approval, and has been matched since the inception of Newspoll (in late 1985) only by the polls which preceded the downfalls of Alexander Downer in January 1995 and John Hewson in April 1994, and several for Andrew Peacock in the lead-up to the 1990 election. Julia Gillard meanwhile is respectively up two to 37% and up one to 52%, and her lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-34 to 46-32.

Today’s Essential Research survey included its monthly personal rating questions, and these too found Abbott falling to new lows. Whereas the previous survey showed both leaders up in the immediate aftermath of Julia Gillard’s sexism and misogyny speech, the latest result has Abbott down four on approval to 33% and up four on disapproval to 58%. Gillard is steady on approval at 41% approval and down two on disapproval to 49%, and her lead as preferred prime minister is up from 43-36 to 45-32, her best result since February 2011.

Essential is also chiming better with Newspoll now on voting intention, with the Coalition’s lead now at 52-48 (down from 53-47 last week) from primary votes of 37% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). Also canvassed are options on how the government might rein in the budget, with reducing or means testing the baby bonus and increasing tax for those on high incomes respectively coming on top.

Preselection news:

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advocate reports there are “at least” 10 candidates for the Liberal preselection in Greenway, of whom the highest profile is former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson. However, the presumed front-runner is the candidate from 2010, Jayme Diaz, whose work as a migration lawyer and family background in the locally numerous Filipino community is believed to stand him in good stead. Diaz is aligned with the David Clarke “hard Right”, but he apparently has an opponent in Tony Abbott, who no doubt has a strong recollection of Diaz’s failure to win the crucial seat last time. Also mentioned as starters have been Ben Jackson and Brett Murray, who are associated with federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke’s “Centre Right” faction.

• The Tasmanian Liberals have preselected Brett Whiteley, who held in state parliament from 2002 until his defeat in 2010, as their federal candidate for marginal north-western seat of Braddon. The party originally chose local businessman Michael Burr, but he withdrew for health reasons. Whiteley did not contest the original preselection, saying at the time he was focused on returning to state politics.

Chris Johnson of the Canberra Times reports that Kate Hamilton, a former councillor in Leichhardt in inner Sydney, and local party member Stephen Darwin will join former GetUp! director Simon Sheikh in the contest for Greens preselection for the Senate in the Australian Capital Territory.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on the prospect of federal executive intervention if Noreen Hay, state Wollongong MP and member for the Right, uses her influence over the local numbers to back a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones, federal member for Throsby and member of the Left.

• Don Farrell has agreed to accept relegation to the second position on Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket in deference to Penny Wong, after his victory in the state conference ballot met a hostile response within the party and without.

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3942 comments

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don
Guest
[lizzie Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK don You mean I must throw away OH’s collection of paper clips???] You use the gently, gently approach. First move them to a different place. Then to another, closer to the door. When he can no longer find them, he will start another pile. Then ditch the original pile. At least it keeps the whole thing under control. [This little black duck Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:11 pm | PERMALINK don, Leaving aside, the hedonistic aspect, how is Oz faring? At my ripe old, I have the… Read more »
my say
Guest

swamp rat correct

o dear o deary me

why do intelegent catholics have to keep educating
we dont of course if people stuck to what this site is
politics
cheers

Yabba88
Guest

GG Have you read the SMH this morning about your heroes. Some of us deal in facts about criminal behaviour. Others support the criminals. Everybody here knows which side you are on. Suffer the little children, indeed.

BK
Guest

And from the Land of the Free –

Cartoon time.
comment image
comment image
They are barking mad!
http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/racist-reagan-operatives-behind-new-robocal
Some good work from Jon Stewart. there is a classic line about JFK in it.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/stewart-oreilly-unless-your-real-name-sit
This says it all about Murdoch!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/16/1162359/-Great-moments-in-obliviousness-Fox-News-edition

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
And the SMH continues to look under the rocks for spiders.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/catholic-churchs-secret-sex-files-20121116-29hkb.html
Another Liberal Incubator comes under scrutiny for misogynistic behaviour inculcation.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/student-tells-of-college-rape-joke-and-groping-20121116-29hj9.html
Do I detect an element of ridicule of Tone in this article?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-proposes-esafety-watchdog-to-combat-cyberbullying-20121116-29gm7.html
A good AFR article on Abbott connection with the Catholic church.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/catholic_connection_weighs_on_abbott_bJRmFz4xMshh9MGtqvhPfO
Richard Ackland writes about last week’s decision to reduce the penalties on some James Hardie directors.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/morality-question-as-dust-will-never-settle-20121115-29eqv.html
Mike Carlton magnificently excoriates Pell in this contribution.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/galling-defiance-amid-the-shame-20121116-29hb9.html
Leunig has a cartoon of a classical bent.
comment image
Ron Tandberg continues on the same subject.

frednk
Guest

[Desert Fox
Posted Friday, November 16, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

Frednk,

Do you think it’s satisfactory that 600,000 can vanish from a union and no one knows why?]

Quite frankly Desert Fox I am completly fed up with the Liberal party dirt unit.

Henry
Guest

Here is Emmylou at her finest…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BMk-GbqNoU

Ratsars
Guest
Why must people always assume the worst interpretation on any subject I suggest that it is done to put their particular spin on a topic and that the interest in the truth is if not nonexistent is extremely limited. We have Desert Fox @#3812 posting … ”She set up a slush fund, (her description) for what purpose?” as though a slush fund is always a dishonest approach to an issue and he the asks the idiotic question “for what purpose”. A quick search found the following definitions of a” slush fund” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slush_fund A slush fund, colloquially, is an auxiliary monetary… Read more »
scorpio
Guest

Damn, still awake. Shouldn’t mess around with You-tube. Here’s a beautiful song by Kris Kristoffersen sung by one of his sexiest spouses. Elvis Presley loved this song and recorded it on just about every album he recorded and performed it live most nights.

I love this song also and our birds love hearing me play it to them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gcI6n3L5NI&feature=related

absolutetwaddle
Guest

Still that post did make me laugh.

“It’s not Christ’s flesh and blood! How absurd! It’s ACTUALLY an eternal “representation” of Christ that exists outside of the space-time continuum (in cracker and wine form). Duh!”

Oh ok. NOW it sounds perfectly plausible. What was I thinking comparing such a reasonable-sounding supernatural superstition to the Mormon faith?

Good night. Crackers and cask wine be with you all!

Tom the first and best
Guest
Tom the first and best

3926

I remember there was a poll about religion in America surveying knowledge about various different areas by religion and 43% of people identifying as Catholic did not know about the Catholic Church`s teachings on transubstantiation and this was a higher proportion than the proportion of Atheists who did knot know.

scorpio
Guest

Here’s a lovely Johnnie Cash song by Emmylou to serenade everyone on the east coast. One of my favourites.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80F9ZWGGVAA

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Laurie Oakes:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/opposition-leader-tony-abbott-learns-to-fight-smarter/story-fn56baaq-1226518420071

The premise of it is that now Abbott plays Nice Guy because he is becoming unpopular for being too negative.

But wasn’t he supposed to be such an effective opposition leader by being so confrontational and relentless in the first place? So he ditches what was supposedly working and plays hippy? Hmmmm, good luck with that …

scorpio
Guest

swamprat,

[ The missal is a book of ritual, ]

Sure! It is based totally on the New Testament and the words/teachings of Jesus Christ. Most of the rituals as you call them, word for word to Scripture.

Are you saying that they are open to interpretation? If so that then casts a shadow over the reliability of those rituals, doesn’t it?

Anyway, enough for me. Off to bed. God bless and be good to each other.

absolutetwaddle
Guest

swamprat –

That’s my understanding of transubstantiation. If you have a more acceptable/progressive/modern view that’s great but it doesn’t change the fact lots of Catholics believe the Eucharist is Christ’s flesh and blood.

Literally.

As for your explanation, I found it to be esoteric gobbledygook but essentially that’s what we’re discussing here so I forgive you.:)

scorpio
Guest

swamprat,

It outlines the Eucharistic celebration as instructed by Christ at the last supper as written in the New Testament.

I can’t imagine “any” Catholics, or Christians generally for that matter, being happy to accept some philosophical or other translation of the Sacrament of the Eucharist.

But you are welcome to any interpretation that you wish to follow but they would not be the traditional interpretation.

I’ve got no intention to give your issue any more oxygen than I have so far.

swamprat
Guest

scorpio @ 3921

[Been a while since you read your missal it seems. Dust it off and have another look.
What you wrote there is a heap of …………]

No idea what you are saying… The missal is a book of ritual, not a theology, but maybe t you are not referring to that.

Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest

Got to go to bed before the Newman curfew kicks in, night all.

guytaur
Guest

Goodnight

Henry
Guest

Scorpio the concert was brilliant.
She still rocks and her red dirt band were a tight, smokin unit.

scorpio
Guest

swamprat,

[ Catholics do not “believe” they are LITERALLY eating the flesh and blood of Christ, unless they are cannibals.

They believe in the REAL presence of Christ. It is a belief that the Eucharistic celebration is “outside” time and when celiberated makes the universal actions of Christ real today. ]

Been a while since you read your missal it seems. Dust it off and have another look.
What you wrote there is a heap of ………….

deblonay
Guest

Nat Silvber’s poll re Gay vote in US election

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

deblonay
Guest

Nate Silver’s research in the NY Times re Gay vote
_________________________________
Perhaps it’s no suprise but Gays voted nearly 80% for Obama

One wonders why any Gay would vote for the Repubs with their bigoted/religious views on gay matters
Still the support would have been worth many millions of votes to Obama
The poll shows the Gay pop at 5%..and would have been inportant in many close state votes

cccchttp://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

scorpio
Guest

Henry,

[ Oh at 64, Emmylou is still a babe. ]

Was the concert any good though?

guytaur
Guest

@suellewellyn: Super useful guide for journalists. How to search #socialmedia for stories by @sarahmarshall3 @journalismnews http://t.co/P0GPLhND

swamprat
Guest
Absolutetwaddle [It’s funny how (for example) a Catholic might have the gall to mock Mormons for the American Jesus thing but simultaneously believe they are LITERALLY eating the flesh of Christ every Sunday] I know it was ages ago in this forum but absolute twaddle writes absolute twaddle. Catholics do not “believe” they are LITERALLY eating the flesh and blood of Christ, unless they are cannibals. They believe in the REAL presence of Christ. It is a belief that the Eucharistic celebration is “outside” time and when celiberated makes the universal actions of Christ real today. It may be similar… Read more »
Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

LBB,

You don’t mean that not only did she come back but we missed a 2 for 1 opportunity?

Henry
Guest
You know, a funny thing happened last night at the Emmylou Harris concert I went to last night in Sydney. In the banter between songs she mentioned how being on the road for so long, it meant she had to do a pre vote for the US presidential election. She laughed and said it would be no surprise who she voted for. There was huge applause which amazed me in what in theory would have been a 50-50 audience. She then launched into a bit of a monologue about how amazing Obama was, what a brilliant man he is and… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

LBB

I heard zilch

Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest

GG , don’t you mean THEY came back ?

Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest

Any news about Tony Abbott and his court case today? Didn’t see or hear anything ?

deblonay
Guest

Big List of protessts re Gaza worldwide
____________________________

http://mondoweiss.net/2012/11/worldwide-protests-against-israeli-aggression-in-gaza.html

guytaur
Guest

For election watchers Japan is having one on December 16

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

LBB,

My only issue is she came back.

Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest

Desert Fox, what about a RC into Howard and wife spending $20 MILLION Tax payers money , on flying around the world in 11 years ? That disappeared too.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

deblonay,

You first!

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

fess,

I found your whole range of products and publicty campaign. there are no secrets.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sMqbgzMQbg

deblonay
Guest

GG 3900
Do you ever get tired of repeating the same silly offensive comments to so many on this site
Genuine question !
I can’t remember you ever making a comment of value
just snide comments and abuse

You’ve had a big task defending Pell and Netanyahu in the one week

guytaur
Guest

Establishment of Marine Parks again getting BBC coverage

confessions
Guest

[Gratuitous slips and zippers that don’t know how to close]

Is this some kind of Jenny Craig weight loss FAIL fantasy? Cause it ain’t ringing any bells with me.

😆

deblonay
Guest

Carey Moore
the best US Jewish site for comment on Gaza et al..Mondoweiss
++++++++++
http://mondoweiss.net/

Great stuff each day it is updated

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Deblonay,

Do you ever get tired of repeating the same bullshit over and over?

Genuine question.

guytaur
Guest

It is in the US interest to oppose a ground war by Israel into Gaza. Any such war will break treaties and destabilise whatever stability remains in the middle east. It would tremendously speed up efforts by Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
Israel is truly playing with fire this time.

Lord Barry Bonkton
Guest
zoomster@3740 On the bung hip thing, I received my disabled parking sticker the other day. Fat lot of use it is. Because I don’t need a wheelchair, the reasoning is that I don’t need a special disabled parking space (because I don’t need extra room to get out of the car). So the sticker I have doesn’t let me park in a disabled space. All it does it let me park in a normal space for twice as long. As I only needed it to get close enough to where I need to go so that I can walk there,… Read more »
deblonay
Guest
Carey Moore 3883 re Israeel _________ Thera are a number of very good israeli-‘jewish websites that denounces the hard-line Netanyahu regime His problems flow from the immense costs of the illegal settlements on the West Bank on Palestinian land..all illegal…but he props them up..while cutting back on the needs of many Israeli who are hostile to him In addition his blatent entry into the Florida campaign in the US election obviously angered Obama ..who is no friend of Netanyahu…so his friends in the US are on the outer..they spent a fortune on Romney…so can’t expect much help from Obama On… Read more »
Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

fess,

Oh, you’re a bogan icon.

Gratuitous slips and zippers that don’t know how to close are your specialities.

guytaur
Guest

Egypt treaty with Israel is now under discussion. If Gaza/Israel conflict continues it could be under threat.

confessions
Guest

GG:

Well now you’re making me blush. 😳

Designer line? Way too cool for lil ol bogan me.

confessions
Guest

[as i have said before i hope none of you need an institution ran by a church]

Based on what we’ve seen, I sincerely hope I don’t need the buggers either.

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