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Tasmanian Politics

Nov 21, 2012

EMRS: Labor 27, Liberal 55, Greens 15 in Tasmania

More bad news for the Greens courtesy of Tasmanian pollsters EMRS, who have recorded a seven-point drop in their support at state level since last quarter. The Liberals meanwhile have further widened their already commanding lead.

The latest quarterly EMRS survey of Tasmanian state voting intention shows a six-point hike in the already very healthy Liberal vote to 55%, matching a previous peak of August last year, and a seven-point slump to 15% for the Greens, who ordinarily do rather too well out of EMRS. Labor’s vote is steady at 27%. Lara Giddings has gained three points as preferred premier to 25%, but still badly trails Will Hodgman who is up two to 47%. Nick McKim of the Greens matches his party’s fortunes in dropping four to 11%. EMRS has also helpfully published a chart showing the progress of its polling over the current term.

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18 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

More spam:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/legislative-council-voting-patterns.html

Analysis of Tasmanian Legislative Council voting patterns on divisions since 2010. Shows that voting in chamber is unpredictable but rather conservative.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

I’ll spam this thread as well since it’s a Tassie thread.

I have just released:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/the-legcos-claimed-reasons-for.html

Analysis of the Tasmanian Legislative Council vote against state same-sex marriage a few months ago. Mainly focuses on categorising (and in some cases lambasting) the arguments advanced against the bill. Also takes to task some MLCs who said silly things about the measurement of public opinion.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Where I would diverge from the above assessment: * The god-botherer aspect of Ferguson and Petrusma bothers me greatly; unfortunately, I see no evidence at all that it bothers the electorate at the moment (beyond those who would not vote Liberal anyway) so I must discount it in assessing their performance. * Yes Ferguson is a “failed” federal pollie but the loss of that seat was inevitable and it was surprising in the end that he came so close to holding it. The “future leader” thing has fizzled largely because the Libs have absolutely no reason to change leader. Hodgman… Read more »
meher baba
Guest
Kevin, do you seriously stand by your statement that the Tassie Libs “have some pretty good operators in their crew these days”? Let’s assess them one by one Will Hodgman: his father was a terrific guy and an effective politician in his own eccentric way. Hodgman jnr is bland, uncharismatic and comes across as not believing much of what he has to say (especially about the forests) Jacquie Petrusma: god botherer/happy clapper Matthew Groom: came into Parliament with big wraps, but is quite unimpressive both in the media and one on one Elise Archer: the best thing I think I… Read more »
dovif
Guest

Kevin and Meher Baba

When Kevin Rudd was elected, he did not release any policies until 3 months before the election, and most of those were “me too” I am a fiscal conservative like the Howard government.

The only difference I could spot was the meaningless “Sorry” and Populist Workchoice

If it worked for Kevin and the ALP, I do not understand why there is a call for the Liberals to release policies much earlier then the election.

Rational Leftist
Guest

At this point, I will move the Tasmanian ALP from the category of 100% certain to win to mathematically possible for the Libs to squeak a win… 😉 😛

Kevin Bonham
Guest

I agree with Meher Baba’s assessment of the Tasmanian Liberals policy-wise. I actually think they have some pretty good operators in their crew these days but we are getting very little by way of policy vibe about what they are actually going to do. And some of what we are getting is not good – eg the Mt Wellington cable car proposal, highly likely to become a taxpayer-funded white elephant in the interests of “supporting business”.

Also concerns me that the religious right will be extremely powerful in a future Liberal government.

meher baba
Guest
I don’t have any major criticism of the Lib Govts in WA, NSW or Victoria (the latter being a bit unfairly maligned IMO). The Newman Govt in Queensland has been absurdly inept: maybe it will improve over time. I don’t know how the NT Government is going. However, all of the above Governments, and the Federal Libs and particularly the Tasmanian Libs, are amazingly light on in terms of policy. Their main claim to the right to govern is an assertion that they will do a better job than the Labor Party. The Liberal Party used to stand for some… Read more »
dovif
Guest

meher baba

Oh yeah I have heard that in Qld, NSW and NT already and When Howard was elected, that was the end of the world too.

Guess what the world not only did not end when the Liberals got in. In NSW, things are getting done. Unless you call Bob Carr announcing the NW Railroad for the 5th time as getting something done. PS in NSW Obeid, MacDonald, Tripoli are getting into the same mess as Thompson

dovif
Guest
The Liberals are likely to win 2 seats off the ALP in Tasmania and has a good chance of a 3rd in Tasmania Federally. Which is bad news for Julia, because New England and Lynn are going to go back to the Liberals, and the NSW ALP is going to cost the ALP 4-5 outer sydney seat, where the ALP is really on the nose (with help from Obeid, MacDonald and co) This means even if the ALP does not lose seats in SA, they will need to win 6-8 seats elsewhere (WA, Qld and Vic) to get back to… Read more »
meher baba
Guest

PS. Sorry about all the typos. Even the upgraded PB site isn’t very mobile device friendly.

meher baba
Guest
These results aren’t the least bit surprising. I don’t think they reflect a desire for majority government as they do a widespread dismay at the economic malaise gripping the island and a feeling of “time to give the other mob a go, it’s impossible for them to do any worse.” The looming tragedy for Tasmania is that the “other mob” seems to me to be light years away from being ready to govern. Going back to the last election, they have expressed almost no other policy positions other than: 1control use that they will tear up any forestry peace deal… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

Updates to link from #1 added, commenting on responses from politicians to the poll. In particular I’ve pointed out how Greens Leader Nick McKim loves polls despite pretending not to care that much about them, and has often found explanations for his party’s good results and other parties’ bad results in the past, but writes this one off as “volatility”.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Mod Lib@3


Kevin:

What would be the federal implications if voters in Tasmania voted federally in the same way that they are reporting they intend to vote at the State election?

(In other words: two seats or more?)

They’d probably win the lot including Denison. But while we may see very big swings in Tas federally (double-digit in some seats quite possible) I don’t believe we will see 20+s. The state swing to the Libs is amplified by the very strong desire for majority government at state level. Tasmanians can vote very differently at state and federal levels.

Rational Leftist
Guest
[What would be the federal implications if voters in Tasmania voted federally in the same way that they are reporting they intend to vote at the State election? (In other words: two seats or more?)] My, back of the envelope calculation of the situation says there would be a swing of just over 20% to the Libs in 2PP preferred terms in such a scenario. That is more than enough to wipe out all of the Labor seats on the island. Bit tricky to work out Denison in such a scenario but, regardless of Wilkie’s result, he’d be facing off… Read more »
Utopia
Guest

Kevin:

What would be the federal implications if voters in Tasmania voted federally in the same way that they are reporting they intend to vote at the State election?

(In other words: two seats or more?)

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Also in Tassie: Mercury fined, Green candidate ordered to pay court costs and be of good behaviour over Electoral Act breach (published ad for LegCo on polling day)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-11-21/newspaper-fined-over-electoral-breach/4384186

HT: Dean Parry.

Nick McKim (state Greens leader) has issued a rather panicked response to the poll – see http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/nick-mckim-the-volatility-of-political-opinion-polls/

My provisional view is that the response is wibble but I may revise this to a harsher assessment later!

Kevin Bonham
Guest
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