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Seat of the week: Oxley

Despite unfavourable redistributions and the statewide swing of 2010, Bill Hayden's old seat has returned to safe Labor form since the famous interruption of Pauline Hanson.

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Still famous 15 years later as the former electorate of Pauline Hanson, the modern seat of Oxley was created around the satellite city of Ipswich west of Brisbane in 1949 (a seat bearing the name earlier existed in southern Brisbane, before being renamed Griffith in 1934). Redistributions in 2004, 2007 and 2010 sent the electorate’s remaining share of Ipswich to Blair, pushing Oxley towards Brisbane with the addition of Middle Park and Jindalee in the north and Algester to the east. The changes before the 2010 election garnished the margin from 14.1% to 11.3%, and the punishing statewide swing against Labor that followed pared it back to 5.6%.

Oxley was was held for the Liberals on fairly comfortable margins for a decade after its creation by Donald Cameron, who served as Health Minister in the Menzies government. However, a 9.4% swing in the near-miss election of 1961 portended a long-term shift, delivering the seat to Labor’s Bill Hayden. Hayden did extraordinarily well to lift his margin to 19.1% by 1969, but Queensland’s reaction against the Whitlam government was enough to cut it back to 3.8% in 1975. By the time Hayden resigned to become Governor-General in 1988, the seat was safe enough for Labor that Les Scott was able to survive a sharp swing at the resulting by-election with a 4.0% margin.

After retaining a margin of 12.6% at the 1993 election, few suspected that Scott would be in serious danger despite the hostile environment Labor faced in 1996. However, trouble came in the form of Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, whose campaign remarks about Aboriginal welfare saw her disendorsed by a party sensitive about its leader’s complicated history on racial issues. The voters by contrast rewarded her with an astonishing 48.6% of the primary vote, resulting in a 4.7% win after preferences. Unfortunately for Hanson, Oxley was substantially redrawn with the 1998 redistribution, losing its rural areas beyond Ipswich to newly created Blair along with parts of Ipswich itself, while absorbing the very safe Labor urban area of Inala. Rightly or wrongly, Hanson decided the new seat offered her the better prospects and Labor’s Bernie Ripoll had no trouble regaining Oxley at the 1998 election.

A member of the Australian Workers Union/Labor Forum faction, Ripoll served as a parliamentary secretary in opposition after the 2004 election, but was passed over when Labor came to office in 2007. His preselected Liberal National Party opponent for the coming election is Andrew Nyugen, a 28-year-old policy adviser to Brisbane lord mayor Graham Quirk.

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977 comments

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my say
Guest

do you know what
i dont read william bit above much

but
51/49
for pity sake how could that change to the above
when nothing happend
iam going to put this poll in the bin’
of history

and do the things i planned to do today

my oh just came home ask his opion

said well yes if its differenct electorates

i suppose it could
well william what do they do how do they poll

can we have your expert opinion on that

CTar1
Guest

victoria

[Don’t you mean orooerly?]

That effort by the Duck is no00000rty.

Q. Are we talking duck or a turkey?

my say
Guest

well how about that a

he he he he

lol roflingggggggggggggg

my say
Guest
your not going to beleive this i have been looking at realestate for a friend for the last hour and the thing dropped out and up came this page what a laugh no differnt, all their capper and by the way mss jb i can remember my first day at work to but dont remmeber what the weather forecast was who the obbs for the day but i wore a yellow linen dress and took my cream cardi with me and an umbrella with flowers on it of course you remeber your first day at work and where you went… Read more »
The Finnigans
Guest

They threw everything at PM – still cant knock her down 51-49, vbad for Abbott, Peta’s expecting 53-47 & scream “abbott, you fuacking idiot”

mari
Guest

{BH
Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:26 pm | PERMALINK
Mari Glad we stayed up for the poll}

Smart,happy and now tired little PBers we are 🙂

joe2
Guest

[After speaking to John Howard, Lightfoot issued a statement in which he claimed that he felt “uncomfortable” having the gun with him and did not carry it personally]

comment image

Dee
Guest

Sprocket
[If JulieB wants to be the attack dog, she has to have her own credibility challenged. The fact she lives in a glass house is valid, especially as she keeps using the pejorative term “boyfriend” to demean the PMs past relationships.]
Well said!
I do however admire Confessions ability to rise above the fray.

imacca
Guest

ruawake@838


Off to play RAGE – blowing up mutants makes me feel better.

What ru?? The opposition front bench is a video game now??

BH
Guest

Mari Glad we stayed up for the poll 🙂

Centre
Guest

Connie

The poll proves what I have been saying.

Voters know jack and don’t give a sh!t about the S&G matter.

mari
Guest

Gee Thanks to James J I can go to bed happy now and won’t have nightmares about 60 to 40 like Mod Lib was predicting

sprocket_
Guest

Confessions

If JulieB wants to be the attack dog, she has to have her own credibility challenged. The fact she lives in a glass house is valid, especially as she keeps using the pejorative term “boyfriend” to demean the PMs past relationships.

Centre
Guest

Yeah eff you Paul Kelly 😯

Shock the monkey!

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Thanks, James J,

An early (10:21) evening call.

confessions
Guest

[Newspoll

51-49 2PP to the coalition]

Well, well.

Mumble has said for ages now that the daily commentary doesn’t have any impact on polls fortnight to fortnight.

Perhaps he was right. If so, watch the space ‘moving forward’.

guytaur
Guest

James J

Thank you.

victoria
Guest

And I am pleasantly surprised!! 🙂

Kinkajou
Guest

So all that shite and no lib bounce!

guytaur
Guest

Wow went past 48 on the 2pp

mari
Guest

[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 10:13 pm | PERMALINK
mari@915

zoidlord
Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:06 pm | PERMALINK
@mari/900
BTW have been on new blog and got very lonely over there

That is okay, we welcome back lost sheep who are tempted by greener pastures that turn out to be plastic turf.]

Thanks Puffy, I am saying Baaaa very humbly and won’t be tempted again with greener pastures, I can assure you

victoria
Guest

Thanks James J you are a gem!!!

James J
Guest

Newspoll

51-49 2PP to the coalition

Primaries: Coalition 43, ALP 36 , Greens 11

Better PM: Gillard 46, Abbott 33

Gillard: Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 52

Abbott: Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 61

23-25 November. Sample 1156

Very little change from last poll

bemused
Guest
feeney@935 bemused @ 928 Yes, I agree with what you say. The whole thing is becoming so confused, deliberately I think by the MSM etc, in order to create a stench or smell around the PM. If the suggestion is that JG helped with the legal documents, knowing that their purpose was to use funds for Wilson to purchase this bloody house, then there are matters to be addressed. She has already denied this anyway. I really don’t know what to think anymore, mainly because there has been no allegation made against JG. As I have posted earlier. She did… Read more »
confessions
Guest

William:

I predicted a majority Liberal win at the next state election, but admittedly on the back of a rural stampede back to the Liberals.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

This little black duck@947


Seems Ms Bishop has a good memory:

The young lawyer in the Liberty print dress was sent straight to the Supreme Court, where one of the firm’s partners was defending a man accused of murder. Nearly three decades later, Bishop still recalls every detail of that first assignment as a 22-year-old.


http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/true-blue-to-her-boots/2007/09/06/1188783415598.html

Remember what you said about the Wittenoom workers, Julie?

I imagine most people would remember a first assignment like that. Now the Wittenoom case, er er ar ar er?

confessions
Guest

I am very uncomfortable with this chatter about JBishop’s alleged past relationships.

Who cares who she married/dated/whatevered when there is a demonstrable track record of her abject incompetence in shadow cabinet just begging to be trawled over.

BH
Guest

Has Julie Bishop been married/divorced twice?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

mari@915


zoidlord
Posted Sunday, November 25, 2012 at 9:06 pm | PERMALINK
@mari/900

BTW have been on new blog and got very lonely over there

That is okay, we welcome back lost sheep who are tempted by greener pastures that turn out to be plastic turf. 😀

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

Seems Ms Bishop has a good memory:
[The young lawyer in the Liberty print dress was sent straight to the Supreme Court, where one of the firm’s partners was defending a man accused of murder. Nearly three decades later, Bishop still recalls every detail of that first assignment as a 22-year-old.]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/true-blue-to-her-boots/2007/09/06/1188783415598.html

Remember what you said about the Wittenoom workers, Julie?

Centre
Guest

Finns

The chooks are the Bludgers who criticise the bookies for not knowing what they’re doing but are too chicken to have a bet 😆

Psephos
Guest

I don’t think Bishop and Lightfoot were ever married. Bishop had an earlier marriage but not to him.

fiona
Guest

TLBD,

Interesting that Mayne asserts that Ms J Bishop and Mr Lightfoot were married …

Dee
Guest
BH [In 2003, Lightfoot was involved in an altercation on the floor of the Senate during a visit by United States President George W. Bush. Australian Greens Senators Bob Brown and Kerry Nettle were attempting to hand Bush a letter from the wife of Mamdouh Habib, an Australian citizen who at the time was being held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, following his apprehension by United States forces in either (this is disputed) Afghanistan or Pakistan. Lightfoot physically blocked the path of the Senators, elbowing Brown and reportedly telling Nettle to “Fuck off and die”.] [On 17 March 2005, News Limited… Read more »
The Finnigans
Guest

[They just want to tempt chickens into having a go which they don’t ]

Centre, you aint having my chooks 😛 – http://twitpic.com/b84px1/full

confessions
Guest

State Liberals are talking up winning Balcatta on the back of the retirement of the sitting ALP member.

Labor has held the seat since 1908 according to reports.

Hubris much?

Centre
Guest

This has been an inside job that has been very well orchestrated by the MSM specifically for the last sitting week of parliament to save Abbott’s job as leader of the Liberals.

They started with a pretend to be loyal Turnbull then full on S%G smear campaign.

That is all!

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

There is a Cash & Lightfoot connection:
[Michaelia Cash: the daughter of the former WA Speaker and Liberal Minister used to work for Senator Ross Lightfoot at the same time as dating him. Yes, there was a huge age difference and this was after Lightfoot’s marriage to Julie Bishop but before he married his current wife who also used to work for him.]
http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2010/03/12-1555-7021.html

BH
Guest

Dee sorry for mess in post ‘re Lightfoot. Can’t blame tablet. I didn’t check before posting. Hope u got the gist omit.

Bronnie Bishop chose a dodgy boyfriend unwisely 🙂

sprocket_
Guest

Mark Davis of AWU fame in FairfaxMedia outlets has had a long running interest it would seem in some of the players.

He wrote this in 2007

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/true-blue-to-her-boots/2007/09/06/1188783415598.html

feeney
Guest

bemused @ 928

Yes, I agree with what you say. The whole thing is becoming so confused, deliberately I think by the MSM etc, in order to create a stench or smell around the PM.

If the suggestion is that JG helped with the legal documents, knowing that their purpose was to use funds for Wilson to purchase this bloody house, then there are matters to be addressed. She has already denied this anyway.

I really don’t know what to think anymore, mainly because there has been no allegation made against JG.

BH
Guest

Dee
I thought Lightfoot was Brownie’s dodgy boyfriend.

He was head of NRMA Andreas always in media wining and dining Bronnie. As far as I remember he was done for doing something dodgy and Bronnie dropped him like a hot cake.

Centre
Guest

[This shows bookies have more money than sense.]

No actually bookies have a lot of money and a lot of sense.

They just want to tempt chickens into having a go which they don’t 😉

Centre
Guest

[There’s no inside knowledge in politics betting. They just follow the news & polls like everyone else.]

Leroy, why do you say that so confidently as if it is a fact or as if you know?

You don’t know!

That is your opinion which in my opinion it is obvious you have very little insight into the art.

I’ve already commented on my analysis of the betting move in an earlier post.

guytaur
Guest

Watching a fascinating programme on the BBC. Talking economics including black and white footage of Keynes explaining his theory.

Its called Masters of Money and comes right up until the present day.

confessions
Guest

I don’t think it’s helpful to imagine JBishop as partner to sundry Liberal MPs.

Surely we’re better than Liberals.

bemused
Guest
feeney@912 Bemused My understanding (?) of this ‘fraud’ buiness is this: it is quite OK, perfectly legal etc, to establish a fund for the purpose of union elections. The suggestion by the PM’s detractors is that the money was used by Wilson (with whom she was living) to purchase a house, and that she knew, at the time of the purchase, that the money came from the union elections fund. That is my simple way of putting what my understanding of it is. However, having seen JG at THAT press conference address all these issues, I am satisfied that she… Read more »
sprocket_
Guest

http://www.perthnow.com.au/entertainment/perth-confidential/power-and-the-fashion/story-e6frg30u-1111114162157

This from 2007 on JulieBs love life . My post outlining some of Ross Lightfoots antics is in moderation…

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