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The first Essential Research poll for the year – indeed, the first poll full stop – has the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, a marginally better result for Labor than the 55-45 on which they closed their account in 2012. However, the primary votes are all unchanged on last time: 48% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor and 8% for the Greens. This survey also features Essential’s monthly measures of personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard up four points on approval to 41% and down four on disapproval to 49%; Tony Abbott steady on 33% and up one to 57%; and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister nudging from 43-34 to 42-33. Whereas Essential surveys are normally a two-week rolling average of about 1000 respondents for each week, this poll is just from the 1014 respondents in the January 9-13 survey period.

Entertainingly, the poll also takes the opportunity of the Queensland government recent effort to liven up the silly season by gauging opinion on electoral reform, with results well in line with other such polling in the past. Support for voluntary voting is at 40% with 49% opposed. Fifty-eight per cent say they would definitely vote if it were not compulsory against 25% for probably, 9% for probably not and 4% for definitely not. Only 13% support the lowering of the voting age to 16, with 78% opposed. The poll also finds first-past-the-post is the favoured electoral system, but only if opposition is allowed to split two ways, in classic first-past-the-post style. Preferential systems are favoured to first-past-the-post 48% to 44%, but that includes 22% support for the existing full preferential system and 26% for optional preferential, such as operates at New South Wales and Queensland state elections and was advocated by Bronwyn Bishop last week.

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375 comments

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John Hargrave
Guest

Polls look bad for our vile PM- start packin’ the hair dryer Tim-what a bummer-no more free OS flights or tix to the footy-back to the salon.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

a newspoll and no one here talking about it??????????

CTar1
Guest

?????

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I logged on to read the morning comments and there is nothing. wtf?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

where is everyone?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

pedant@369


Kevin Bonham @ 368: I perhaps didn’t make it clear in my contribution that I was talking about the House of Representatives, not the Senate.

Noted and my figures were wrong anyway; I’ve fixed this on the other thread.

pedant
Guest

Kevin Bonham @ 368: I perhaps didn’t make it clear in my contribution that I was talking about the House of Representatives, not the Senate.

In the Senate, I always vote up a ticket rather than down, precisely to make it less probable that my ballot paper will reach its ultimate destination at a fractional transfer value. Not that it’s likely to make any difference, but understanding how the system works gives me some small pleasure.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
pedant@214 It’s impossible for a candidate who polls more than one third of the formal vote to be excluded, so anyone who votes for a candidate certain to poll more than a third is being forced to engage in a pointless charade when marking later preferences. One-third is for NT and ACT; for other states it’s one-seventh. While a candidate who polls that well can’t get excluded, when they are elected their votes are distributed at reduced value as a surplus. So it is not true that the voter is wasting their time in numbering preferences. It is, however, true… Read more »
confessions
Guest

[These are very interesting questions, don’t you think?]

I do. What is the tipping point away from principle to dogma? It’s not just identity or self awareness.

What motivates a traditional, small government Liberal to get behind a big government DLP type in Abbott? Or even a high taxing, high spending alleged Liberal in Howard?

The mind boggles.

briefly
Guest

Hockey will be honing his cutlass.

Rossmore
Guest

Game on!

Rossmore
Guest

Wow!

Kevin Bonham
Guest

J M@189


son of foro – I myself turn off the tv whenever Gillard comes on, and I know that I am not alone there. I can’t bear to listen to any Labor polly speak, and Australians hate Gillard like no other PM has been hated.

Actually Keating was the most hated PM by some margin, at least since the late 1960s.

54-46 to start the year, too.

54-46 from Essential is only worth 53-47. Still better than trailing, of course.

victoria
Guest

James J

What a very pleasant surprise. Thanks heaps!!

briefly
Guest

[355
Danny Lewis

Ooops. It appears I am cross-pollinating posts between this site and the other which dare not speak its name]

Does this mean you are bi-focal, Danny?

Henry
Guest

That’s gotta be worth another 4 seats each way on the bludgertracker.

briefly
Guest

I give Abbott about a month.

Henry
Guest

Quick get this on twitter william and gazzump ghostie!

Henry
Guest

Surprising but great newspoll.
Game on, we are in a winning position here!
Bring it!

Danny Lewis
Guest

Ooops. It appears I am cross-pollinating posts between this site and the other which dare not speak its name 😉

womble
Guest

sorry i didn’t clean that up and James still beat me anyway – JUST 😉

thanks James – interesting Fairfax is getting the Newspoll stuff out so quickly

51-49 a very nice place to be 🙂

briefly
Guest

The SLUMP is back on!!!

[350
James J
Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

Newspoll

51-49 2PP to the coalition]

Henry
Guest

I was joking actually about the GST confessions.
Like Keating I don’t consider it a reform at all – just a shifting of the buckets to capture more revenue.
As for gun laws, call me cynical but I don’t think Howard had a choice with that. The sentiment was too strong for change post Port Arthur.

womble
Guest
Newspoll tonight??? http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-winning-back-lost-ground-newspoll-20130114-2cq2p.html 10:13PM Monday Jan 14, 2013 3,342 online now See today’s paper Subscribe Fairfax Media SMH Real Estate Cars Jobs Dating Newsletters More The Sydney Morning Herald Breaking News National NSW National World Business Sport National Times Tech Digital Life Entertainment Life & Style Travel Cars Exec Style Photos You are here: Home Breaking News National Article Search smh: Search in: smh.com.au Labor winning back lost ground: Newspoll Date January 14, 2013 – 10:12PM Email article Print AAP Labor has recorded a jump in support at the start of an election year but its resurgence appears to have… Read more »
James J
Guest

Newspoll

51-49 2PP to the coalition

Primaries: ALP 38, LNP 44, Greens 9.

Gillard: satisfied 38, dissatisfied 49
Abbott: satisfied 29, dissatisfied 58

Better PM: Gillard 45, Abbott 33

Jan 11-13, 1152 sample

Danny Lewis
Guest

Henry: It is indeed.

Unless I’m about to do a Jodie Foster 😀

confessions
Guest

Henry:

Yes, the GST.

So two (2) lasting reforms in 11 years in government.

And the current lot of Liberals want to go back to this period of extraordinary stagnation, regression even.

briefly
Guest

bye HSO

womble
Guest

Evening All

For the legal types out there is it normal for an appeal like Ashby’s to be heard by the full bench of the federal court??? Looks to me like that is what they are asking for

briefly
Guest
confessions, I’m still at work……slow to respond…..sorry. These are very interesting questions, don’t you think? I think most behaviour is driven by normative responses – by group affiliation and iterative conformity. This enables us to “sort” out those things that we encounter in our daily lives and ensures that social cohesion is more or less spontaneous. This is an implacable force. In the past, social affiliation – based around signs of “class” identity, income, age, marital status, education, occupation, geography, religion and gender – was most probably much more rigid than it is today. These days changes of all kinds… Read more »
Rossmore
Guest

What a charming Tory MP Andrew Laming is:

@AndrewLamingMP: Mobs tearing up Logan tonight. Did any of them do a day’s work today, or was it business as usual and welfare on tap?

Henry
Guest

So I take it Danny Lewis is a nom de plume…
4-3 on service in the third, LH down 2 sets to zip.

jeffemu
Guest

I don’t know too much about modern aussie tennis as I gave up on it a long time ago.

After growing up watching the proud legends we had in the sport and then having to put up with the antics of the “modern day” players.

Reminds me of the old saying. Some of those are a few floggings short of being good blokes.

Spoilt brats always comes to mind when I watch some of them

Danny Lewis
Guest

Henry: I’ve never been a Hewitt fan, and I don’t believe I’m about to start now.

Unlike Mr Affleck, I’m unlikely to allow Mr Hewitt’s pantaloons to reside under my bed 😉

Henry
Guest

Little Lleyton dying hard but sadly, still dying.
This other bloke is 9th in the world for a reason.

Danny Lewis
Guest

Look, I admit I’m no lawyer, but like BB I have reservations about the veracity of Ashby’s “appeal”.

Anyone would think the man has an alternative agenda 😉

Henry
Guest

Well there was always the GST confessions…

Keating was right about that too. It was hardly a reform, just shifting the buckets.

As for Greg Hunt, he’s become a right little shit over the years hasn’t he.

Harry "Snapper" Organs
Guest
Harry "Snapper" Organs

Nighty night, confessions and victoria.

ShowsOn
Guest

FORUM ANNOUNCEMENT:

I’m getting a new bed delivered on this coming Speed Dating Friday, so I won’t be able to participate.

I’ll be ready to participate in speed dating Friday next week.

victoria
Guest

HSO

Have a good night. All the best for work tomorrow

confessions
Guest

Night HSO.

Harry "Snapper" Organs
Guest
Harry "Snapper" Organs

Catch, that is.

confessions
Guest

[Poor old Howard got nothing except a very minor award after all his years of sucking-up.]

I meant what I said earlier about the Howard era producing no real lasting legacy of any note. The only thing people can identify now is gun control, for which he deserves plaudits, but this came in his first term.

It must be awfully embarrassing to the Liberal cheersquad that there was nothing else in his subsequent 3 terms in office worth celebrating.

Harry "Snapper" Organs
Guest
Harry "Snapper" Organs

Caych you later, bludgers. Work tomorrow.

leone
Guest

And now – Fireman Tony The Musical.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4hQwZGOulE&feature=youtu.be

The ending is excellent, just close your eyes and enjoy the music until then if you have had more than enough of Stunt Abbott.

leone
Guest

[More and more, JG projects power and TA projects the want of it.]
Like this –
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bowlerbarrister/8318703483/

Harry "Snapper" Organs
Guest
Harry "Snapper" Organs

briefly @ 307.
Gawn, like dust in the wind. Pfft.

BK
Guest

leone
Yeah. Nice try Hyacinth!

leone
Guest

Menzies’ fawning over the Queen managed to get him a nice reward – a knighthood, the position of Lord Warden of the Cinque Ports and Warden of Dover Castle, plus his very own official residence in the UK, Walmer Castle.

Poor old Howard got nothing except a very minor award after all his years of sucking-up. I’ve always thought Janette was frantically studying family history, hoping to find some links to the aristocracy that would see her installed in Castle Howard. What a shame she had to remain just plain old Janette from Botany.

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