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Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll has opened its account for 2013 with an encouraging result for Labor, recording a primary vote six points higher than the previous poll of December 7-9.

The result of the first Newspoll for 2013 has been reported by AAP (your guess as to how that’s come about is as good as mine) and almost simultaneously by the ever-reliable James J, and it’s a relatively encouraging one for Labor who trail just 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 in the final poll of 2012. The primary votes are 38% for Labor, up six on last time, with the Coalition and the Greens both down two, to 44% and 9% respectively. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 49% while Tony Abbott is up one to 29% and down one to 58%. Gillard leads as preferred prime minister by 45-33, up from 43-34.

UPDATE (16/1/13): A Morgan face-to-face result covering both the previous two weekends (and presumably warranting more than the usual degree of caution on account of the holiday period) has the Coalition leading 51-49 when preferences are distributed as per the 2010 election result, and by 52-48 according to respondent allocation. The primary votes are 36.5% for Labor, 41.5% for the Coalition and 10.5% for the Greens. This follows what now looks an aberrant result in the final poll of last year, when Labor led 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences and 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated.

UPDATE (19/1/13): AAP reports a ReachTEL poll of 511 respondents conducted for the United Voice union in Wayne Swan’s Brisbane seat of Lilley suggests he is heading for defeat, trailing LNP candidate Rod McGarvie 45% to 38% on the primary vote.

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3565 comments

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Dorrie Evans
Guest
What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. I see the pretty knitters are still letting what’s left of their lives ebb into the ether. Some of you are bright enough to know it even if the messenger is a little shit. All perspective is lost if you fixate and less is more simply because it has more punch. All this handbag at twenty paces stuff is nonsense, puerile and very unbecoming. I apologise for being a jerk at times but I am very frustrated. I looked at posts from 2011 and even though there were psychos even then, there was humor and playfulness and far less bickering. There are a number of problems going on here. We have a hard core group of posters who’s positions from the Middle East to free speech and everything in between are entrenched and even if JC descended and said otherwise people on any side of any debate would not be convinced (those convinced against their will are of the same opinion still as Mother would say). The other hurdle is that many of them are very intelligent, have very long memories and have all day, every day to argue their case. Unfortunately for the rest of us who are just trying to find a bit of truth amongst all the sparkling propaganda (let’s face it, most of it is), it becomes difficult to discern what is truth and what is opinion parading as fact. The other glaring thing about some of the regulars is the hypocrisy inherent in the way they conduct themselves. They rail against the tactics used by the MSM but they have not only absorbed the tactics but ape them at every turn. They refuse to see that they themselves are a clique and a claque that flatter each other and studiously bolster the ramparts that hold them afloat from day to day. Interlopers are viewed as Icarus types who will be sent to Coventry if they dare challenge the prevailing orthodoxy. Personally, I think I understand what is going on here. There are a lot of people on here who are lonely and bored who would be devastated if this blog were taken away from them. Hence the ferocious border protection policies that go something like this- “Hi Dorie, welcome aboard. Gee Dorrie, don’t know… Read more »
J M
Guest

Does anyone know when the Insiders returns? It’s always nice to hear the fair, balanced and unbiased comments by Niki Savva. She stays fair and composed, even if the two Labor hacks on there gang up on her.

cud chewer
Guest

I have no idea what any of you are on about.

Yes, it is a bit hard when you’re stuck in an alternate universe 🙂

J M
Guest

I have no idea what any of you are on about.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

J M@3498


frednk – I opposed medicare myself, I don’t like handouts. My electorate has been eternally National, and schools and hospitals and everything else here are in fine state, and every time I’ve had a problem, I’ve found my member (current and former) to be very helpful.

Next time you see an overpriced school hall, thousands of Muslim illegal immigrants, and hear the word pink batts, just remember one word – ‘Labor’.

I like intelligent discussion. You have just disqualified yourself.

And if you really are s
Showson, you should be ashamed of yourself for typing that drivel. I shall report you to the RSPCK (Royal Society for Prevention of Cruelty to Keyboards).

J M
Guest

Why do Labor supporters say that the AWU affair is irrelevant because it was 20 years ago, but they still go on about something Abbott is alleged to have done 35 years ago?

J M
Guest

zoomster – I completely disagree. I despise leftism, and those national voters that you know – I would be ashamed that they were a member of the same party as me. How on earth are we more similar? Labor is centre-left, Liberal centre-right, Nationals right.

zoomster
Guest

I know a lot of National voters.

The more politically active they are, the more they tend to respect and admire me.

The most usual reaction from a National voter re Labor is “I don’t understand why we don’t form coalitions with you guys. We have more in common with you than with the Libs.”

That, btw, applies to National MPs as well as ordinary voters.

One fairly ostentatiously accompanied me as I walked around the local show during the 2007 election, introducing me to to people. SM was at the same event – he didn’t go near her.

A Nationals voter who professes extreme hatred for Labor is quite rare. It’s the Libs who hate.

Psephos
Guest

[Showson always maintains some vaguely tenuous connection to reality but GP never bothered to do so.]

ShowsOn is also an abusive loudmouth. This guy isn’t, he’s just a reciter of Coalition talking points.

deblonay
Guest

GG
for some reason part of my comment on GG statement was
ommited
My reply is on post 3219-65

poroti
Guest

JM

[It’s not just that it suits me better, it’s that it just doesn’t make sense that Labor is so high, when the public mood has not seem to have changed at all]
The problem is your “public” are 2GB listeners,rusted out Nationals and Pies + Bolta readers.

deblonay
Guest

GG .. my reply to your comments(post 2854-58) on my past ALP involvement and my actions in the 1975 Constitutional case in the High Court re Electoral reform sre explained
Thank you for that

I posted late last night and I think you may have gone to bed

We must stop being too civil to each other as it will perplex some of the regular posters here

ajm
Guest

I’ll vote for the JM = GP theory.
The turn of phrase being used by JM was sounding vaguely familiar to me but I think Psephos has nailed it. Showson always maintains some vaguely tenuous connection to reality but GP never bothered to do so.

deblonay
Guest

JM 3526 re Schools grants from Feds
___________________________

In my observations of schools in G’borough where I live they all received grants for various building projects and all seem safisfactory and most useful to the better working of the schools
I think you have bought(made up?) the Libs mantra re the School Building Programs…but you are just plain wrong..!!

The Murdoch Press seized on some minor problems and made these in the typical “big lies ” that Murdoch…a disciple of Dr Goebells I think..made into”truths”
Go out an look at what has been done in your community and see the facts

BlindFreddy
Guest

Well done most PBers.

Stray animals that are fed keep on keeping on.

Don’t feed ’em and they go elsewhere.

confessions
Guest

briefly:

Quite so. As you said the other day, there are so many indicators of global warming in WA, it’s hard to know where to start in listing them all.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Carey – no trouble having an independent in cabinet – but its not US-style. Suggestions of a scenario where NSD gets elected as a Lib sponsored independent?]

She runs for a seat and the voters vote for her?

ajm
Guest

The reason why people confidently say they know the mood of the electorate from talking to people (and get it totally wrong) is because we all talk mainly to like minded people and other in our own fairly narrow social millieu.

I recommend handing out HTVs for your favourite political party for the WHOLE DAY on election day just once in your life. Because most people do obey the law and vote, you will see the full horror of our society pass before your eyes (or at least as much as live in the vicinity of that polling place – so pick a pretty average suburb).

After that you will never be surprised by any twist or turn in political outcomes.

If the polls are picking up a pretty even contest, those votes on both sides will be happening somewhere and barring some huge distortions enough seats will change hands both ways to reflect the overall vote pretty closely.

Alaos, quite a large proportion of the population moves house between elections, so the composition of the roll is quite different from the previous election. Although the fact that particular demographics stick to the same areas moderates this effect, there still remains the possibility of quite large changes in particular seats even if every person votes the same way they did last time.

All that is a convoluted way of saying that the polls are usually pretty right as it gets close to the election date. Before that, most people hear the voting question as “Who won the popularity contest last week?”

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Fran,

The Greens policy on AS is akin to building a train track to the edge of a cliff without thinking through the implications of where that means the train is going.

Toot! Toot! Greens. Make sure you punch your ticket on the Oblivion Express.

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