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Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research records next to no change on voting intention, and a general lack of sympathy for the view that unemployment benefits haven't kept up over the years.

The latest weekly Essential Research result maintains the outfit’s record of consistency with the major parties unchanged on last week – the Coalition leads 48% to 36% on the primary vote and 54-46 on two-party preferred – and the Greens up a point from last week’s unusually poor result to 9%.

Whereas attitudinal questions often point to a social democratic bent among the population at large, questions posed this week on Newstart indicate that this particular buck stops with unemployment benefits. Fifty-three per cent agreed with the proposition that the current welfare system created a “culture of dependency”, with only 30% opting for the alternative proposition that current benefits are “the least a civilised society should provide”. In relation to Newstart benefits specifically, 33% said they were not high enough, 30% about right, and 25% too high. As Bernard Keane notes in Crikey today, variation by party support was not as pronounced as it often is in relation to such questions.

Further questions dealt with trust in various industries, with good rankings for agriculture (72%), tourism (68%) and manufacturing (56%) and poor ones for banking (33%), mining (32%), media (30%) and, tellingly, power companies (18%). Crikey will tomorrow publish Essential’s biannual “trust in media” results, which always makes for fun reading for critics of the fourth estate.

UPDATE (25/1/13): An automated phone poll for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, conducted by ReachTEL for the Launceston Examiner, has produced a dire result for Labor, with incumbent Geoff Lyons trailing Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic 60.3-39.7 on two-party preferred. The primary votes are 54.7% for Nikolic, 26.7% for Lyons and 8.7% for the Greens. The sample size for the poll is 543.

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3884 comments

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Dorrie Evans
Guest

I don’t mind a rock hard argument but what I will not abide is a hand full of sand thrown in my face by a weak opponent who stands behind a lifelong love affair with his or her own ignorance.

Dorrie Evans
Guest

Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight cw. I am advised by another poster that you are an Ok person. Will you personally benefit from putting me down? Will it make you feel any better if you do so? A complete stranger? Can you explain how that is any good for you or me?

crikey whitey
Guest

absolutetwaddle

Dorrie Evans
Guest

I am not your enemy cw. Rest son. Can you really judge me from the little we have said to each other?

crikey whitey
Guest

Mmmh.

Change of shift.

Dorrie Evans
Guest

That is almost cute cw. Do you always back away from a fight even though you might lose?

absolutetwaddle
Guest
Welcome to the Internet, Dorrie. I agree with pretty much everything there though – I would add that even as someone who may very well kill for JG to win the next election the hubris surrounding the next election from Labor supporters here is quite galling. Ultimately lots of the people here have been alienated from the MSM and have found a small niche they kinda fit into – particularly the Labor optimist crowd. In reality these are dark days for Labor and the future looks pretty bad so I understand it. Any port in a storm and all that.… Read more »
crikey whitey
Guest

Well then. Don’t.

Dorrie Evans
Guest
And CW, mate I am not a troll or anything else you care to imagine. We do not know each other. That’s it. People here get carried away. Some of them do it in the most spectacular and amusing way but perspective is the only thing that will save you and me from making complete fools of ourselves. My friends like and put up with me. I presume it is the same for you. My whole life has been a endless succession of gormless fools barking their dogma at me. I don’t have to put up with it anymore and… Read more »
Gecko
Guest

In another bulletin: recent polling results on conservative forethought were returned late and had to be abandoned.

crikey whitey
Guest

So nice. Perhaps you could advise William.

Dorrie Evans
Guest
Dorrie Evans Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 2:31 am | Permalink What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. I see the pretty knitters are still letting what’s left of their lives ebb into the ether. Some of you are bright enough to know it even if the messenger is a little shit. All perspective is lost if you fixate and less is more simply because it has more punch. All this handbag at twenty paces stuff is nonsense, puerile and very unbecoming. I apologise for… Read more »
crikey whitey
Guest

Kevin Bonham
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 1:27 am | PERMALINK
Anyone know whether the public holiday will mess with the Newspoll release date? Essential are releasing on Tuesday instead of Monday because of it.

JW may know.

deblonay
Guest

Chas. Freeman …on the dangers of contradictory US policy in the N East
______________
A former US Ambassador to Saudi speaks on US policy
____________
http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/speeches/change-without-progress-middle-east

ShowsOn
Guest

These are all the songs they played, but they aren’t in the right order:

Monarchy of Roses
Around the World
Scar Tissue
Factory of Faith
Look Around
The Adventures of Rain Dance Maggie
Snow (Hey Oh)
Universally Speaking
What in the World (David Bowie)
Under the Bridge
Californication
By the Way

ENCORE:
Soul To Squeeze
Give it Away

ShowsOn
Guest

MOFOS

HAPPY RED AUSTRALIA HOT DAY PEPPERS !!!!

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Anyone know whether the public holiday will mess with the Newspoll release date? Essential are releasing on Tuesday instead of Monday because of it.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Henry@3854 Bottom line is Gillard is preferred PM over Abbott. Are some people slow around here or what. Bottom line is Preferred Prime Minister is a rubbish indicator unless you at least scale it for the advantage to the incumbent: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/12/why-preferred-prime-ministerpremier.html I do wish people would realise this and stop drawing false conclusions from PPM. It’s like using a product that’s been proven not to work. (Of course, people who think you can read the election result reliably from relatively close polls several months out are making the same mistake.) As for Mod Lib’s comments about the Galaxy poll, I… Read more »
PatriciaWA
Guest
Bushfire Bill @ 3644 “She’s a winner!” Here! Here! This came in my e-mail the other day. …..I think we should start a ‘we love Julia campaign’ and become a political force – ‘we’ being we old feminists, who are experiencing some of our dreams becoming a reality – Australia’s first female prime minister and her different way of communicating with the public and her working methods with her colleagues, but still adept at political survival. I am disappointed with Germaine Greer saying trite things about Julia’s physicality etc. and more particularly Eva Cox, whom I admired, recently refuting Julia’s… Read more »
ShowsOn
Guest

M
O
F
O
S

R
H
C
P

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@3793


However, as has been pointed out about ten times now, Gillard doesn’t have to beat Howard, or Hawke, or Keating, or Pitt the Younger. She only has to beat Abbott, who is the most despised opposition leader since, oooooh, let me guess, Dr 7%, Brendan Nelson.

Nelson wasn’t anywhere near as despised as Abbott; he just wasn’t preferred to a honeymoon-period Rudd whose party was polling through the roof.

ShowsOn
Guest

RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS MOFOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Utopia
Guest

OK, my beauty levels have now reached critical levels….time for some beauty sleep.

Good night all.

Henry
Guest

It’s about 2% and closing.
The trend my friend.

Utopia
Guest

Gillard is losing to Abbott by around 5% where it counts (in actual voting intentions) right now…..according to Bludgertrack

Henry
Guest

Good work ML, live in the past, meanwhile in the current, real word Julia is pantsing Abbott. 🙂

Utopia
Guest

[Are some people slow around here or what.]

No, you got there eventually!

Utopia
Guest

[Henry
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 12:32 am | PERMALINK
Good ML, your rehabilitation continues, ie you accept Julia is more popular than Abbott.
Keep learning]

Good Henry, your rehabilitation continues, ie you accept Keating was more popular than Howard just before getting thrashed by Howard

🙂

confessions
Guest

[Jessica Wright ‏@jesswrightstuff
@BridgetOFlynn @margokingston1 @janecat60 agreed but remember outcry over Craig Thomson and reporters at his house? Can’t force to answer.]

Right, so it was okay to stalk Thomson outside his home, but heaven forbid we do the same to Brough. ‘Remember the outcry’ for heaven’s sake.

There’s one rule for Labor and another for the coalition. It’s a disgrace.

Henry
Guest

Bottom line is Gillard is preferred PM over Abbott.
Are some people slow around here or what.

Henry
Guest

Good ML, your rehabilitation continues, ie you accept Julia is more popular than Abbott.
Keep learning. 😉

Henry
Guest

Diogenes, of course it would have affected the result by including two more pms. It spreads the 100% around more.
You don’t realise that by including Whitlam for example this obviously affects the vote?

Aguirre
Guest

Brough is one of the few politicians around who will just stand there and give you a blatant lie. Lots of them obfuscate, and at least cover their tracks. Brough doesn’t bother with any of that. If it’ll get him through the next minute, it’s fine with him. Admirable in a way, I suppose.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Mod Lib,

Howard was called a liar continually over his whole career and it did not stop him.

The propagation of this myth by the Libs will not have any effect on the election result. It may sure up the vote of those who always vote Lib, it may get a few feversished acolytes their five minutes of fame and ir might keep the MSM busy for a couple of years with censorial coverage.

However, won’t make a skerrick of differnece on the day.

confessions
Guest

Oh and speaking of the tooth fairy….

😆

imacca
Guest

Mod Lib@3833


imacca:

Thanks for the link, might be interesting, but I am a little worried about the little virus issue….don’t think I will download it.

I did, scanned with three different updated tools. No prob.

confessions
Guest

[I take it you accept these facts too?]

Who cares! You may as well ask whether Santa Claus or the tooth fairy are real, for all the meaning derived from that poll.

Honestly Mod Lib, you are carrying on so.

bemused
Guest

Diogenes@3777


Henry

No. Amongst Labor voters, Gillard was rated the best PM by 11% and 23% rated Rudd best.

The fact that only 11% of Labor voters rate Gillard best of that 5 show they are distinctly underwhelmed by her.

This is PB Diogenes. We are not reality based here. Do not use facts, it is most disconcerting. 😛

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Diogs,

You are the only person I know who white ants themself.

Must be the water.

Utopia
Guest

[Greensborough Growler
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 12:20 am | PERMALINK
Mod Lib,

Your fearless leader has been caught out on this isssue before.

Do you really think politicians’ lying is a wiiner for the LIbs.]

Gillard being perceived as a liar is a huge winner for the Libs, yes.

Utopia
Guest

I am not denying the facts at all

Fact1: Gillard is preferred PM over Abbott.

Fact 2: Keating was preferred PM over Howard (just before getting thrashed by Howard at the election.

I take it you accept these facts too?

Diogenes
Guest

Henry

I can’t see how they could have asked it any differently.

If they included Fraser and Whitlam, it would have been more interesting but wouldn’t have affected Gillard at all.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Mod Lib,

Your fearless leader has been caught out on this isssue before.

Do you really think politicians’ lying is a wiiner for the LIbs.

Henry
Guest

Why is the format different tonight, cannot quote posts.

Henry
Guest

or facts…

Henry
Guest

No ML, like Julia is preferred pm over Abbott in 2013.
No connection to 96 at all. You can’t deny the acts. 😉

Diogenes
Guest

fess

Basically everyone in politics is being whiteanted by someone from their side.

It’s what these people do.

Utopia
Guest

Thank God ALP types like Obeid don’t lie…

Henry
Guest

Diogenese, totally different scenario.
Labor had 4 pms to choose from. Libs one.
Totally contrived.

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