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Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Essential Research has the Greens up a point at the expense of Labor, while a JWS Research automated phone poll suggests the swing against Labor is biting where it can least afford it.

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The latest Essential Research poll has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 35% and the Greens up one to 10% with the Coalition steady on 48%, and two-party preferred unchanged on 54-46. The poll also finds diminishing enthusiasm for an “election now” (down seven since last April to 35%) with 51% (up three) supporting a full term. Questions on the economy find 70% ready to allow it has performed better over the last few years than in other countries against 12% who aren’t, but 40% rate the Liberal Party better to handle “another global financial crisis” against 26% for Labor. However, optimism is substantially higher than since last August, with 29% expecting the economy to get better over the next 12 months (up seven) against 37% expecting it to worsen (down eight).

Perhaps surprisingly, the poll finds little change in convictions about climate change since the question was last gauged in August. Fifty-one per cent agreed human activity was causing climate change against 40% favouring “a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”, respectively up three and up one on August. Support for carbon pricing was likewise little changed at 37% against 50% opposed, up one and down two. The poll also finds 37% supporting lower pay rates for 18 to 20 year old workers against 52% opposed.

We also had published overnight an automated phone poll by JWS Research targeting 3350 respondents in the 54 seats which are held by either side on margins of 6% or less. This pointed to swings to the Coalition of 12.2% in the NSW seats, 4.1% in Victoria and 3.2% in Western Australia, with the Queensland seats swinging 2.8% to Labor. Swings against Labor were 4.8% in aggregate, 6.5% in Labor seats (10.0% in seats with margins below 3%), 3.3% in Coalition seats, 5.7% in metropolitan seats and 1.7% in country seats. As well as being at the high end for the Coalition generally, it also produced relatively good personal ratings for Tony Abbott, on minus 16% net approval against minus 14% for Julia Gillard and trailing only 33-32 as preferred prime minister.

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1221 comments

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Martin Smengle
Guest

afr.com/p/national/gov…— Phillip Coorey (@PhillipCoorey) February 1, 2013

Martin Smengle
Guest

Coorey is reporting that Chris Evans has resigned.

Fran Barlow
Guest

Jon Stewart is nearly always good, but this is hilarious:

Glenn Beck conservatives discover the darker side of ‘freedom’

As it turns out, while freedom is a lovely slogan, living Glenn Beck’s fantasy is far better. 😉

lizzie
Guest

Have I missed Abbott’s presser?
I dozed off during Hawker’s chat and woke to the harsh shrieking of Chrissie Pyne’s distortions of the truth.

How do their minds work? “The PM refused to give details”. No she bloody didn’t.

Just Me
Guest

[Economically, we’re still the envy of the world on all the key indicators.]

Curse Teh Evul Carbon Tax.

Gorgeous Dunny
Guest
You girls shouldn’t be too tough on DavidWH. He’s a Lib and all that, but not entirely one-eyed. I thought he’d been sharper than Mod Lib on guessing how things might pan out. Yesterday I think he said wtte that Gillard had made a lot of mistakes in 2010-2011, but has not repeated them, and seems unlikely to in the coming year. I might not agree about all of those ‘mistakes’, but that’s not a bad assessment on where things are now:not nearly as bad as the Ruddsters and Mod Lib and the like would suggest. Politically, the hardest decisions… Read more »
Just Me
Guest

1187
Greensborough Growler
[Looks like a great market to arbitrage.]

I just knew a PBer would be watching for that point in the market. 🙂

Just Me
Guest

1173
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
[well done PMJG. Love the glasses too.]
As a middle-aged hetero male, I’d say it was a good look. 🙂

1174
davidwh
[Is that the “Real Julia” look SK?]
Damn sight better a view than on offer by the increasingly ‘Real Tones’.

Just Me
Guest

1157
poroti
[Tone’s Mini just got run over by a Mack.]
he he

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Toorak toff,
thanks for that, i have not voted interstate before. It would behove the AEC to set up a booth that does offer it close to the footy grounds.

Toorak Toff
Guest

zoidlord (1169):

Your political compass is somewhat astray jdging by your assessment of me.

Puff, the Magic Dragon (1183):

Well you can vote in any polling booth in your state or territory, but not quite in any polling booth in the land. If you’re interstate, there are some booths available for interstate voters but they’re not always that handy. Best to do a prepoll vote in your own state or a postal vote.

Lynchpin
Guest
My guess is the MSM will write this up for a while as longest election campaign, public sick of politics etc etc; can’t come soon enough. After that initial thoughtless reaction, the focus will change to policy. I think it is on balance a good move, despite the likely cynicism. People will want to know what they are voting for. It will be more difficult for the Libs to trot out the usual line about “We will deliver our fully costed policies in good time before the election.” I think it will have the possibility of clearing away the fog… Read more »
This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

All these people, including Bruce Hawker, should be sodomised with Nate Silver’s book (thanks, Poss)!

ajm
Guest

Rex Douglas
[What a hapless, hopeless performance by Wilkie in this presser – totally floundering]
I suppose it’s a bit like when you stand in the dock and the judge pronounces sentence. He can see his fate, he knows the date, and he’s having trouble coming to terms with it. Goodbye Andrew

bemused
Guest

guytaur@1200


now this tweet

“@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

And about time some morons on PB caught on to that and stopped ranting about “Ruddstoration”. Rudd will not challenge and that has been the case since about March last year. You can all lay off the ritual Rudd hatred.

muttleymcgee
Guest

[I’m not complaining for my own benefit, …..]

No, just your usual whinge

bomberrose
Guest

Which part of the country will he do his presser in?

ajm
Guest

If you were a state premier, would you really want an Abbott victory. Since he’s going to have great difficulty finding “savings” it’s a fair bit that one of the places he’ll be looking at very hard is payments to the states. They will be screwed and their own re-election made more difficult. Expect lots of faint praise from the LNP state governments from here on in – maintain the facade but hope like hell Abbott gets done over.

zoidlord
Guest

@dividwh/1198

If you been watching these past couple of years the parliament wasn’t like it use to be especially the lack on bipartisan support.

guytaur
Guest

now this tweet

“@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

guytaur
Guest

now this tweet

“@ABCNews24: Rudd’s fmr leadership campaign strategist Bruce Hawker: I don’t think anyone is in the business of being about to challenge Julia Gillard.”

guytaur
Guest

FFS

Scott Bevan just asked a leadership question of Bruce Hawker. Of course Hawker put him in his place

davidwh
Guest

No offence was meant Puff and I think I will leave you all for your day of joy and catch up again later. Perhaps you will be less touchy when things settle down.

Having said that I have read many much, much worse comments and insults of Liberal politicians in the past two years without taking offence. It can be very one-sided here at times what comments people decide to get outraged about.

Space Kidette
Guest

Davidwh,

There is only one JG and we are lucky to have her as our PM!

Son of foro
Guest

[Wonder if he’ll take any questions, or if he’ll just do his “bad government getting worse” schtick then walk off.]

I’ll bet you London to a brick he’ll say WTTE: ‘I’m glad the Prime Minister has finally taken my advice to call an election.’

Then he’ll crack himself up and walk off.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

ajm,

A bit like Chris Chritie of New Jersey just prior to the election.

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Just Me,

Oh Bemused got his memorial Kevin Rudd earwax stuffed to the gunnels of his ears.

ajm
Guest

Can’t believe it. CanDo didn’t want to talk about election date – only wants to talk to PM about flood relief. A crack in the LNP endless politicking wall!

Just Me
Guest

1145
bemused
[But, like most Australian PMs, she is no great orator.]
My understanding is that part of the reason she speaks like that is for the benefit of the hearing impaired, especially lip readers.

I heard a clearly written and clearly delivered speech, of considerable content and moment.

Not quite sure what you heard.

ajm
Guest

summary

ajm
Guest

Abbott press conference sunnary: Election Now!

Now you won’t have to watch it.

poroti
Guest

Patrick Bateman

In the “Slaying of the Rat” election I was interstate and cast a vote without problems at a local polling station. It was easy peasy .So being interstate is no excuse.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Davidwh,
As a woman I take great offence at that remark. How dare you suggest a woman changing her look is akin to deception. You Liberals have no shame, just like that cretin who leads you. He, btw, really does change his look to try to deceive people, so I ask you, which look is the Real Tony?

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Looks like a great market to arbitrage. Polls usually tighten towards election day.

So you can invest $1000 on Labor now at the $4.15 and $2000 on the Libs when the price tightens to a pre determined price. (e.g. $1.80).

That way you lock in a minimum profit of $600 if the Libs win or you win $1150 if Labor wins.

Rex Douglas
Guest

What a hapless, hopeless performance by Wilkie in this presser – totally floundering

Aguirre
Guest

guytaur@1154


This should be fun

“@abcnews: Oppn Leader Tony Abbott calls press conference to respond to election announcement at 3.40pm AEDT #ausvotes”

He’ll be positive about it of course. It’s the New Tony after all.

Wonder if he’ll take any questions, or if he’ll just do his “bad government getting worse” schtick then walk off.

Patrick Bateman
Guest

[Patrick, considering your history of snarky contrarianism, I suspect no weekend would be good enough for you.]
“Snarky contrarianism” aka “not immediately applauding every decision the Labor Party makes as a tactical masterstroke”.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

You can walk into any polling station in the land and vote. I vote outside my electorate nearly every time. This is not the Roman census in Bethlehem, you know.

Kinkajou
Guest

It’d be the Melbourne Crickets ground

Rational Leftist
Guest

Patrick, considering your history of snarky contrarianism, I suspect no weekend would be good enough for you.

Aguirre
Guest
Stephen T@1132 Aguirre Make the most of the next 227 days because it will be a tough or should I say miserable 12 years come September 15th. Well, I’m not confident the ALP will win, but you’ve painted a pretty accurate picture there of what life would be like if the Coalition win. It would probably take another 9 years to undo the damage an Abbott government would wreak in its single term in office. Thankfully, with the polls the way they are now the Coalition would be unlikely to get control of the Senate, so that would limit the… Read more »
Kinkajou
Guest

PB

There’d be crickets at the MCG

davidwh
Guest

But they are easily distracted by footie guytaur.

davidwh
Guest

Sorry Puff not SK.

Patrick Bateman
Guest

[If only there was some way that people travelling interstate on election day could vote…]
I know they CAN vote, but will they?

I’m not complaining for my own benefit, just think it’s an odd weekend to pick – don’t governments usually avoid weekends with major sporting events and the like?

If, say, West Coast and Adelaide were to be playing finals in Melbourne that weekend, you’d have potentially 80,000 people out of their home state on the day of the election.

guytaur
Guest

davidwh

Sydney Wester Suburbs people are no more stupid than anyone else. They can multitask and arrange voting around it. Either prepolling or voting in half of day when not watching footy

davidwh
Guest

Is that the “Real Julia” look SK?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

well done PMJG.Love the glasses too.

Strap yourselves in, we are about to engage warp-drives.

Kinkajou
Guest

$4.15 sounds like a good investment….won’t get any better ( doh! the pun)

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