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NT By-Elections

Jan 30, 2013

Election day: September 14

Regardless of her motivations, the Prime Minister has done us all a good turn by advising well in advance of her plans to hold the election on September 14.

The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.

Some recent political odds and ends:

• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.

• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.

• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.

UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.

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3768 comments

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geoffrey
Guest

more questions: did JG survey for possible resignations before announcing? why would or should be surprised? did she know before making it or like they just surprise her and damage party … were they required to announce resignations now? there will be no more now?

geoffrey
Guest

can someone explain why these ministers resigned immediately after an historically early election announcement? why didn’t they serve their time as ministers? why go to the back bench for many months? why not announce their resignation later in year? did they mean to make things difficult for JG if they are so loyal? i do not understand

geoffrey
Guest
Didn’t Nicola Roxon absolutely trash Rudd earlier last year – threatened to leave – now she leaves regardless? presumably she knows her mind, although one always wonders about an AG who can’t find any jurisprudential regret for June 2010. It’s funny how Rudd is out of bag on site – the rabbit keep bopping up. is it all worth it? is australian politics worth the long haul? julia gillard shoring up her support in nsw right while commission guts it? no dots to join from obeid to 2010 to today? now rudd is photograph naked having sex with a NY… Read more »
lefty e
Guest

[…EMMA ALBERICI: So, Christopher Pyne, we’ll just confirm that you’re… because you haven’t exactly answered the questions around Judge Rares’ comments in the Federal Court who criticised Mal Brough as someone who was so keen to advance his own interests in the Liberal Party that he would act with James Ashby in a conspiracy to bring down the Government?]

Abbott’s judgement is in question over his support of Brough. He should require Brough to address these matters publicly instead of evading them.

lefty e
Guest
imacca
Guest
[Something certainly doesn’t stack up. You plan to resign soon, yet become AG? Yeah right.] Actually i think it stacks up pretty well. She had some things to do, did them and is moving on to things that matter, like family. I’m sad that she made that choice, but respect it. ALP do have an advantage here as they seem to have competent people to move up. As against the wabble opposite who dont even have competent people in place now. Also, they have a leader who can think on her feet and deal with the unexpected without going into… Read more »
political animal
Guest

Preferred PM means nothing! A dismally low approval like Tone has means it will not even be close come election day!

Mick Wilkinson
Guest
political animal, you certainly don’t live up to your moniker. All Psephs here know that two measures in polls mean squat on polling day: a) The beauty contest b) Preferred Prime Minister All that matters is that magical TPP and marginal seats. On that basis alone, the ALP is so screwed. If it comes to someone they don’t like and someone they don’t trust Abbott wins over Gillard every time. Even the TPP is less important with a hung parliament and so many marginal seats. If the ALP lose by two seats (and that will be an absolute miracle) they… Read more »
political animal
Guest
Gorilla@3732 Newspoll was likely to dip this week anyway, only because the last was a little on the generous side. FWIW I’m guessing a 46 or so, lots of pundits saying “We told you so”, followed by a move back up to the mean of about 48. A few voters out there may change their answers in a survey due to some sort vague notion that they heard someone talking about a crisis, but then a couple of weeks later, nothing will have changed, “crisis” forgotten. I love your optimism BB, but I really don’t think people change their minds… Read more »
john wright
Guest

Something certainly doesn’t stack up. You plan to resign soon, yet become AG? Yeah right.

Gorgeous Dunny
Guest

3709 Fran

The Wizard of Id was a great source of humor, especially in the late 60s. One other I always remembered also involved the King on the campaign trail.

Question: What are you going to do about mugging in the streets?

King: I’ll build more parks.

Thirty years later I was amazed to hear John Howard invoke a similar style.

Question: What are you going to do about the high rate of youth unemployment?

Howard: I’ll make them work for the dole.

Psephos
Guest

I see from the ALP publicity photos at the Nova Peris facebook page that she has a white husband.
https://www.facebook.com/adam.j.carr#!/photo.php?fbid=466787070041221&set=a.466786573374604.121840.459160564137205&type=1&theater
This means that she will be exposed to the same campaign of covert racial denigration, as “not a real blackfella”, in the NT Indigenous community that Rioli and other ALP candidates were at the NT elections. No doubt the CLP will find some “authentic” Indigenous candidate to run as an “independent” against her. I trust the ALP is much more awake to this tactic now than they were then and has a strategy to combat it. I trust…

Psephos
Guest
@Fran: I’ve known Fran Kelly for (on and off) nearly 30 years so I’m somewhat biased in her favour. She certainly isn’t a Liberal stooge as some here have alleged, but she has strange ideas about journalistic “balance.” Her idea seems to be that the government of the day and the “serious” media must of necessity have an adversarial relationship. She sees it as the media’s job to criticise whatever the government does, and to give critics of the government far more airtime than supporters. Since we have a Labor government, this means of course that her programme is “objectively… Read more »
The Finnigans
Guest
political animal
Guest
briefly@3641 3628 guytaur “@j4gypsy: #auspol Latest Morgan Poll L-NP is 50.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 1.5%) on two-party preferred. http://t.co/SjsbFvLA who’s reporting???” The most telling number in this poll is the LNP Primary Vote, registered at 39%. This is abysmal from their point of view. If the Morgan result heralds further decay in the LNP base, then there is absolutely no way they can win. If it is real – and who knows if this is so – it shows that the LOTO factor is driving even the rusted-on away from home and into the shelter of others.… Read more »
The Finnigans
Guest

@margokingston1 is back to her best – I can see clearly now: PM – http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/02/02/i-can-see-clearly-now-pm/aliansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/02/02/i-c… … – yes Margo, i will do the reggae or even the calypso

Ratsars
Guest

muttleymcgee

RtDO and bemused drinking the same Koolaid.
That they persist with KRuddCrap indicates an absence of comprehension.

Whatever they have in their “Koolaid” must be a powerful hallucinogenic.

Ratsars
Guest

Bemused @# 3369

Rudd as a better leader even though it is not going to happen?

To be a leader one need followers and it has been demonstrated on a number occasions that Rudd does not have sufficient among those that count. If he is not a leader he must be a follower.

muttleymcgee
Guest

[My money is on Rudd returning to the front bench.]

RtDO and bemused drinking the same Koolaid.

That they persist with KRuddCrap indicates an absence of comprehension.

Ratsars
Guest

Guytaur @# 3237

You better tell the ABC how its breaching the electoral act by not giving the opposition equal time in NSW because the election date is known.

Clearly Guytaur has not heard of state Law and Commonwealth law and what to do if, I repeat, if, there is a conflict, not that there is in this case.

I think some civics training is necessary here. Most of us get it in early high school but it appears that some were not paying attention.

Ratsars
Guest

Rosemour the Despised One @# 3183

My money is on Rudd returning to the front bench.

Famous last words

Mick Wilkinson
Guest
I note a piece in the Australian suggesting that the ALP will potentially make a play for Queensland to make up for probably losses in other parts of Australia. The reasoning given was that the frustration with Campbell Newman’s job cuts would lever a few seats their way. This is probably a waste of shoe leather and slush funds. September is an eon away and after Newman’s budget/rollout of good news nuggets that will be very well-timed for the election.. you can be sure of that. There is also the rusted-on anger about Gillard & Rudd, which, incredibly, still influences… Read more »
briefly
Guest
victoria @ 3712….you think the pols will be good for the LNP? You’re probably right. But I think there is an alternative….call me wishful, but…. The people see the LOTO playing make-believe again, and then a version of policy hide-and-seek at the National Press Club. The people notice the economic news remains healthy, and their personal circumstances have improved a some more. They approve of this, just as they enjoy putting butter and salt on their potatoes. A little pleasure can go a long way. The people notice the PM, looking very shiny and replete. They see her laughing at… Read more »
feeney
Guest

BK @ 3690

Good post, BK

Mick Wilkinson
Guest
CTart [You’ve got a few old mates. But in small numbers and wrong.] Well those with a realistic view of the ALP or worse have always been in small numbers here. As far as being wrong, I’m prepared to wait it out to see if this government can save itself but it sure is doing the country no favours.. Gillard still doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of political nous for a career politician.. (I was going to mention that she DID once have another job as a lawyer setting up convenient slush funds but thought it wouldn’t go… Read more »
CTar1
Guest

Mick

[Is it just me]

You’ve got a few old mates.

But in small numbers and wrong.

kezza2
Guest
[CTar1 Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 4:54 pm | PERMALINK kezza Subbies are not responsible for a massaged intro, the EDITOR is. And? All she is saying, if she is to be believed, is the first bit has been changed. Who did it? Her boss or the NZ subbies? What is the difference and does it count?] I haven’t read the article CTar1 Only the tweets. If Jessica Wright says the first para was “massaged” by the subbies, then she’s wrong. Subbies do the headings, they may edit an article itself for grammar or for facts, but they do… Read more »
davidwh
Guest

The thing about the last two weeks is that the PM has done some things out of the box so people will view that based on their own biased perceptions of the person and state of affairs. At least the PM has gone early as a couple of issues would have greater impact closer to an election date.

When it come down to the crunch the election will be decided on the economy and perceptions of leadership quality.

Scarpat
Guest

No sting in the question just interested as I thought the rumors only related to sexuality.

davidwh,

If they are only rumours it would be better for William that they aren’t printed here…

Darren Laver
Guest

[ Just catching up with the day’s new. Please correct me if I’m wrong but the media is in chaos because they didn’t see the PM’s announcement of the election date coming nor that of Nicola Roxon’s resignation?by Scarpat on Feb 2, 2013 at 5:10 pm]

Bullseye!

The Gallery has been feral since the Rudd rolling, and time and time again they miss key political developments – boy do they miss Rudd’s, McClelland and K Carr,’s serial leaking.

Scarpat
Guest

Victoria,

No worries – you should see what people do to my real name!

davidwh
Guest

Is what Pyne is alleged to have done worse than what Thomson has been charged with Victoria?

No sting in the question just interested as I thought the rumors only related to sexuality.

victoria
Guest

Sorry Scarpat.

I blame the ipad!

bemused
Guest

Diogenes@3719


Just on case any of you are wondering, Pyne is just as awful in person as he comes across in the media.

NO!!! He is even worse.

kezza2
Guest

bemused
[I have never heard it alleged.
But no slur on Rudd is too much for some.]

Take off your blinkers for just one second.
What I had to say about Rudd

Is not a slur on Rudd.
It is well known within the industry that compromising photos were taken. Doesn’t mean that Rudd had sex with anyone, just that there’s a photographic record.

And, it is a reason why Rudd can never become leader of the party again. See Michael Wolff’s biography.

But it is a massive slur on . . .

take a guess!

Gorilla
Guest
Newspoll was likely to dip this week anyway, only because the last was a little on the generous side. FWIW I’m guessing a 46 or so, lots of pundits saying “We told you so”, followed by a move back up to the mean of about 48. A few voters out there may change their answers in a survey due to some sort vague notion that they heard someone talking about a crisis, but then a couple of weeks later, nothing will have changed, “crisis” forgotten. I love your optimism BB, but I really don’t think people change their minds very… Read more »
Darren Laver
Guest
[ I tried an experiment late last year. Instead of listening to ABC in the morning on the way to work, I’d either turn the radio off or listen to 2WS-FM, which talks mindless crap in between ads and 1970s music.I’d then measure my BP on arrival at school and even after period 1 — at least an hour later.On average, my systolic pressure was 20% higher on arrival on days when I listened to Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan than with either 2WS or the radio off. Interestingly, it was still an average of 15% above after period 1.… Read more »
Mick Wilkinson
Guest
How’s the hand-wringing hate pit going today? Roxon leaving. Like Tanner leaving in the time and manner that he did, this is a big development as I am only too sure that some of the closer placed PBs in the room (as opposed to the sycophantic hacks) would know very well. Gillard has got her money’s worth with John McTernan. The ‘MSM’ is not sure whether the early call was idiotic or a masterstroke.. not a bad result really. Unfortunately it rings strident bells about the solidarity (or lack thereof) in the Federal ALP. Gillard appoints Bob Carr (with a… Read more »
victoria
Guest

Scarpaf

That about sums it up. The msm is in chaos. They just dont know it yet

Gecko
Guest

er no idea what happened there as it sent itself … but para should read at end
[and ask questions back.]

victoria
Guest

Diogenes

True, but maybe this time his luck may have run out

victoria
Guest

Kezza2

Oh i see what you mean now. I misunderstood your posf.

Gecko
Guest
Labor can’t beat the OM or change it. Best to ignore or mock them and make them the butt of the joke… suggest a few horrifying adjectives (while laughing) to assist copy before they go to print. Make overt efforts to do daily interviews with SM networkers and the like … go so far as to organise a press room for just bloggers to access the news releases instead of them. Change the battle ground and take from them what they most need. Oxygen. And always… always… laugh at what and how they ask… and then mock what’s been written… Read more »
Diogenes
Guest

Vic

There is always gossip about Pyne.

Nothing ever eventuates.

victoria
Guest

Diogenes

If what is being said around the traps regarding Pyne is accurate, he should do himself and his family a favour and resign from parliament.

Scarpat
Guest

Just catching up with the day’s new. Please correct me if I’m wrong but the media is in chaos because they didn’t see the PM’s announcement of the election date coming nor that of Nicola Roxon’s resignation?

kezza2
Guest

[victoria
Posted Saturday, February 2, 2013 at 4:42 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza2

I must be naive. I thought Rudd had apologised to his wife for actually going to the night club and having a few drinks. Did not know he got it on with someone!]
I didn’t say Rudd got it off with someone, I suggested there were compromising photos (see Michael Wolff).

There’s a big difference between reality and actuality. AND photos can lie.

victoria
Guest

Diogenes

If the punters have taken notice of Abbott’s pledge to axe school bonus payment and super contributions for low income earners, the polls should be trending towards Labor. But the msm has been largely silent on this. Instead they have focused on the govt in chaos narrative

Diogenes
Guest

Just on case any of you are wondering, Pyne is just as awful in person as he comes across in the media.

wpDiscuz

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