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Newspoll: 57-43 to Liberal-National in WA

Newspoll suggests Mark McGowan's Metronet publicity offensive has done wonders for his personal ratings and poached votes from the Greens, without fundamentally improving Labor's standing on two-party preferred.

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GhostWhoVotes and James J relate that tomorrow’s Australian features a Newspoll result of state voting intention in Western Australia, conducted from 1100 respondents between Monday and Thursday. It shows Labor making little ground on the huge Liberal-National lead recorded for October-December, but Opposition Leader Mark McGowan achieving a substantial surge in personal support on the back of his Metronet publicity offensive. The voting intention figures in fact have Labor up five points on the primary vote to 35%, but seem to indicate that throwing the switch to public transport has caused voters to switch over from the Greens, who are down four points to 8%. Meanwhile, the Liberals are up two to 45% and the Nationals steady on 6%. That adds up to a Liberal-National lead of 57-43 on two-party preferred.

On personal ratings, Mark McGowan is up seven on approval to 51% and steady on disapproval at 26%, while he has closed the gap on preferred premier to a remarkably narrow 44-40, sharply down from 48-29 last time. Colin Barnett on the other hand is down two on approval to 47% and up five on disapproval to 42%. On the question of who will win, 59% say Liberal-Nationals against 25% for Labor.

See here for my overview of the campaign and its opening salvos, and here for my seat-by-seat election guide.

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38 comments

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shellbell
Guest

Bob Ellis is calling it for Labor on March 9:

[Things are changing, I believe, and the daily more obvious Labor victory in Western Australia shows they are changing]

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/our-dear-old-swanny/

There is a link to Western Australia but of course it is not some research Bob got off his ample arse to do – just Anthony Green’s website.

Tricot
Guest
In actual fact, Labor has been on the front foot so far. I received in the letter box today, a pamphlet bagging McGowan but with no clear indication who had published it rather than one “Morton” who must be part of the Liberal apparachik. Interestingly, apart from attempts to bad-picture-paint McGowan, it had a huge picture of him in the gear. My immediate thought, as this stuff was herded to the bin was, well, if the conservatives wanted the electorate not to know who McGowan is then they have done the potential voter a favour by providing a not-to-bad picture… Read more »
Bird of paradox
Guest

Anyone see Tuesdays’ Alston in the West? For a Liberal-leaning paper, that was pretty exceptional. There wouldn’t’ve been a cartoon like that before the 2008 election.

For those who haven’t seen it: left panel = McGowan, drawn in front of the Metronet plan (photocopied, not cartoonist-drawn) in a suit and tie. Caption: “ALP transport system”. Right panel: Barnett in short sleeves carrying a couple of buckets, running after a bus on fire (there’s been a few of those lately). Caption: “Coalition transport system”. It’s now on my fridge.

Bird of paradox
Guest
Tricot at 29: [ According to Grylls (reported by Spangnolo): “….he believed Labor had done a secret deal to preference the Liberals – a move that could see the party lose, North West, Moore and Central Wheat Belt” – seats you mentioned in your post. ] Central Wheatbelt is way too safe for Labor preferences to change things much. The result in 2008 was Nat 47.8%, Lib 25.6%, ALP 16.7%, and they got over 50% before Labor had even been excluded (the combined Lib+ALP vote was 5.5% below the Nats). If the Libs want to win the seat, they need… Read more »
Norwester
Guest
Well, just one poll and from what I pick up there are a lot of people who barely know an election is on. Some I have spoken with this week couldn’t name either leader although they have heard of Barnett if you prompt them. They don’t have landlines of course. The ray of sunshine for WA Labor is that undecideds appeared to be breaking quite strongly in McGowan’s favour compared to the last WA Newspoll on the leader’s ratings. The 57 Lib/Nat TPP looks awfully high for a government whose cabinet has at times looked very ordinary indeed. WA Labor… Read more »
WeWantPaul
Guest

[Education: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 3]

[Health: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 4]

I find these two in particular very hard to understand.

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

Newspoll WA

Best at handling the following issues:

Cost of living: L/NP 39 ALP 39 Someone else 3
Economy: L/NP 54 ALP 28 Someone else 2
Education: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 3
Environment: L/NP 28 ALP 29 Someone else 26
Health: L/NP 41 ALP 38 Someone else 4
Industrial Relations: L/NP 40 ALP 39 Someone else 2
Law and Order: L/NP 42 ALP 32 Someone else 3
Public Transport & Roads: L/NP 35 ALP 46 Someone else 3
Taxation: L/NP 47 ALP 28 Someone else 2
Water Management: L/NP 36 ALP 28 Someone else 12

Rossmcg
Guest

Not so long ago the Barnett government’s public transport blueprint for Perth suggested a rail link to the airport wasn’t needed until 2031 or something
Last week it was a stupid Labor idea.
Today Barnett and Buswell committed to building one.
I don’t happen to think the airport train is the most pressing need for Perth’s public transport, I also this today we saw the emporer blink.

James J
Guest

From the same sample

Question:

Do you strongly agree, partly agree or disagree that each of the following describes Colin Barnett/Mark McGowan

Has a vision for WA: Barnett 81, McGowan 81

Understands the major issues: 73, 81

Decisive and strong: 79, 73

Cares for people: 66, 82

Likeable: 62: 82

In touch with voters: 57, 74

Trustworthy: 64, 75

Question:

Which of Colin Barnett or Mark McGowan do you think is more capable of handling the WA economy?

Barnett: 54 (Labor Supporters 26, Coalition Supporters 79)

McGowan: 33 (Labor Supporters 62, Coalition Supporters 13)

Neither: 3 (Labor Supporters 2, Coalition Supporters 2)

Uncommitted: 10 (Labor Supporters 10, Coalition Supporters 6)

Tricot
Guest
BofP Well, I don’t know the ins and outs of these seats but the ST’s header is “Nationals facing wipeout” According to Grylls (reported by Spangnolo): “….he believed Labor had done a secret deal to preference the Liberals – a move that could see the party lose, North West, Moore and Central Wheat Belt” – seats you mentioned in your post. The piece goes on to say “Mr Grylls said the Labor plan was designed to destroy the Nationals – and to end the $1 billion a year spend-up under the Royalties for Regions program. He said Labor preferences could… Read more »
WeWantPaul
Guest
[Libs have announced today they will build an airport rail link. Unlike the ellendale non promise they have committed to date …] The Ellenbrook train promise wasn’t a complete by [x] promise but Colin promised construction would start either late this term or early the following term, so he had some leeway, but not very much. It was a promise, and a lie. And then a lie about the lie, not a ‘non-promise’. They have no credibility, only a fool would believe they’ll do the airport rail link. They may or may not but no-one should expect them to do… Read more »
Rossmcg
Guest

Libs have announced today they will build an airport rail link. Unlike the ellendale non promise they have committed to date …

Bird of paradox
Guest
[ Is Grylls right? By preferencing the Libs ahead to the Nationals in country seats, will the Nationals stand to lose up to 3 seats as reported in the Sunday times? ] Are you talking about Labor preferences there? If so, it only matters where Labor will come third, which rules out the three northern seats (unless something really strange happens in Kimberley). Central Wheatbelt, Wagin and Warren-Blackwood (mostly) are about as safe as it gets for the Nats, so they’re solid. Eyre will stay with Graham Jacobs, and Kalgoorlie will go whichever way it damn well does (probably WA’s… Read more »
Tricot
Guest
Is Grylls right? By preferencing the Libs ahead to the Nationals in country seats, will the Nationals stand to lose up to 3 seats as reported in the Sunday times? As much as it pains me to see the Liberals, by winning these seats putting Labor right out of contention, it would, hopefully, clip the wings of Grylls and his carpebaggers and pork-barrelling in the bush which is something I mentioned in a earlier post is not such a bad outcome. I see the Sunday Times has bemoaned the fact that there might as well be no election as far… Read more »
Bird of paradox
Guest
As for Metronet 2: the Roadening (hey, it’s only slightly sillier than “Circle Freeway”…): Roe Hwy is already a freeway from Kwinana Fwy to Tonkin Hwy, in all but name, and Tonkin Hwy is becoming the same (including the Roe/Tonkin interchange) as part of the Gateway WA project, so the only new things about this are the northern bits of Tonkin and Reid, from Balcatta to Morley. They might as well build those highways to the way they were designed (with bridges and interchanges), as the rest of suburbia developed around the reserved bits, which are now long, skinny triangles… Read more »
Bird of paradox
Guest
Some thoughts on Metronet (this got kinda long)… The ever-growing northern suburbs, Thornlie-Cockburn link, electrification to Byford and new stations on the Mandurah line oughta be done first. They’re easiest and cheapest, the sort of things that should be done even if there wasn’t a big project with a cool name covering it. Airport line: well, yeah, when they build a new airport first. That’ll take years, though. Extending it to the existing Thornlie line would be good… it’d make Forrestfield a bit less of a public transport black hole. Ellenbrook line: It is a long way away, but Galleria… Read more »
hairy nose
Guest

What moron advised Mark to come out against the Carbon Tax – Jeez how to destroy the momentum in one easy step.

WTF are the advisors doing. I’m gutted.

Rossmcg
Guest

At least McGowan gave an answer and didnt just try to spin it. Gets a few points for that . Ask state liberals if they support TAs plan hurt low paid workers with changes to superannuation. Bet they duck it.

Catalyst
Guest

Think Mark McGown has just shot himself in the foot- he stated definitively he did not support the carbon tax- hence he supports the polluters. Its not a good look when state Labor can’t support Federal Labor.

MOST LABOR VOTERS DO SUPPORT THE CARBON TAX
Guess he also does not support the mining tax..Shame!

silentmajority
Guest

Labor need to make much more noise about the coming 25% power increase on top of the 61% we’ve already had and the $100m blowout debacle for the Muja upgrade.

Lib incompetence (real not imaginary) is costing consumers lots of money but labor aren’t exploiting the facts.

Nemspy
Guest

It’s hard to see Barnett being troubled too much at this election. He’s not done too much to bother people who “tend to vote Liberal” and the middle don’t seem particularly worried either.

Tricot
Guest
I am happy to make two prediction as valid and worthless as one another and no better and no worse than anyone else here. 1. Labor will not win the coming election but will do okay in the metro area. 2. Labor will win in 2017. Apart from Buswell the Liberals have no leadership talent,and it is likely that Barnett will not stay around. Christian Porter could seen the writing on the wall months ago. If poison turns up federally with Abbott and the mining “boom” starts to falter, the Liberals will lose. Already today the West headlines are in… Read more »
WeWantPaul
Guest

[As a rule, election campaigns don’t make a lot of difference.]

It is a good rule, it certainly applied last election in WA.

Toorak Toff
Guest

These figures look pretty diabolical for Labor. As a rule, election campaigns don’t make a lot of difference. That Mark McGowan’s approval rating has shot up so much may, however,indicate something positive is happening (though probably not, it would seem, in the rural seats).

Fran Barlow
Guest

Really, putting aside my longstanding wish to see the states abolished and for a more inclusive approach to candidate selection and ultimately, choice …

Isn’t it, at a minimum, time for PR? I’d say so. Let’s at least end malapportionment and wasted votes.

Matty D
Guest

Another election, another disaster for Labor.

silentmajority
Guest

Labor can win. Some of the traditional mortgage belt seats fell the wrong side of the ledger last time by a handful of votes. Fremantle will come back to Labor after the Carles disaster for the Greens. It will be closer than everybody thinks.

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

The Newspoll WA tables:

http://bit.ly/Xruk3E

WeWantPaul
Guest
Metronet is a sleeper. In the news cycle it was the week before this weeks news. At my work place it is just starting to get traction. I had one metronet question last week, I had three this afternoon (I’m known as the only labor voice in a liberal tower of commerce). All three this afternoon had heard of metronet (step one) but didn’t really have a clue where it went or what it meant. All Labor needs is for the awareness and acceptance of Metronet to grow over the weeks until the election. If Labor senses it is working… Read more »
Rossmcg
Guest

Thanks mod lib

That kinda sorta maybe proves my point. The libs won the primary but were second in seats. No t much point winning 5 seats in the western suburbs by miles if you lose five elsewhere by 100. I can remember when Perths northern suburbs were he battleground in the 80s and 90s and the rest of the state was pretty much ignored. The north is still important but the marginals now seem more widely spread there are a whole heap of suburbs south of the river that barely existed four an a half years ago.

Utopia
Guest
Utopia
Guest

[For instance what was the primary vote and the 2pp at the last election?]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Australian_state_election,_2008

LNP up 7%
ALP unchanged
Nats up 1%

TPP (Lib to ALP) +5%

5% swing to Libs would collect them 8 seats

8 seats = 31 seats (or a majority in their own right) by my calculations, but it is a bit difficult with the 3 party contenders.

Diogenes
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes and James J relate that tomorrow’s Australian features a Newspoll result of state voting intention in Western Australia,]

Someone should remind Richo that he is a dickhead.

Rossmcg
Guest

I dont doubt the liberals will win and don’t know much abt stats and polling but I do know that in my electorate the margin was 64 votes. That means if 33 people voted a different way we get a different result in that seat. i am thinking that in state elections where there are smaller electorates and local issues newspoll is not really relevant I am happy to be enlightened by someone who knows. For instance what was the primary vote and the 2pp at the last election?

Utopia
Guest

Does anyone know the relative seat distribution from this poll?

James J
Guest

Voting
This is the only party or candidate you will consider voting for on election day 49 (Labor 47, Coalition 56)
You will probably vote this way but there is a slight chance you may vote for someone else 36 (Labor 42, Coalition 30)
You could vote this way but there is just as much chance you will vote for someone else 13 (Labor 10, Coalition 12)
You will probably not vote this way on election day 1 (Labor *, Coalition 1)
Uncommitted 1 (Labor 1, Coalition 1)

Greensborough Growler
Guest
Greensborough Growler

Your interpretation seems somewhat churlish.

McGowan seems to have sparked interest because of his focus on policy.

Looks to me like Barnett’s vote might be broad, but not particularly deep.

Not saying McGowan can win. However, if people like one policy, they might like another one.

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