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Federal Election 2013

Feb 10, 2013

Seat of the week: Makin

Labor enjoyed blowout majorities in traditionally marginal Adelaide seats at the 2010 election, but the Liberals are expressing optimism that what went up might be about to come down.

The north-eastern Adelaide seat of Makin extends from Pooraka near the city to Tea Tree Gully and Greenwith at the limits of the metropolitan area. Labor is especially strong in the areas nearer the city, from Walkley Heights north to Salibsury East, beyond which are generally newer suburbs with more mortgage payers and families, who have helped keep the Liberals competitive or better for most of the seat’s history. The redistribution has added around 6000 voters from Port Adelaide in the west, including a newly developed Liberal-leaning area around the University of South Australia campus at Mawson Lakes along with strongly Labor Salisbury further north. The combined effect has been to shave the Labor margin from 12.2% to 11.8%.

Makin is one of three seats which went from being Liberal seats in the final term of the Howard government to Labor seats with double-digit margins after the 2010 election, together with Kingston in the south of the city and Wakefield in its outer north. It was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 from an area that had mostly formed the southern end of safe Labor Bonython, the majority of which was in turn absorbed by Wakefield when it was abolished in 2004. Makin was held for Labor by uncomfortable margins from 1984 to 1996 by Peter Duncan, a former Attorney-General in Don Dunstan’s state government. A 4.8% swing put Duncan on the Keating government casualty list in 1996, and he returned to the headlines in 2007 after being charged with fraudulently obtaining government grants for his plastics recycling company.

Duncan’s Liberal successor was former nurse Trish Draper, who emerged as a prime ministerial favourite after strong performances at the next two elections. The swing against Draper at the 1998 election was just 0.2% compared with a statewide swing to Labor of 4.2%, and in 2001 she bettered her 1996 margin after picking up a swing of 3.0%. Draper went on to hit serious trouble in the lead-up to the 2004 election when it emerged she had taken a boyfriend on a study trip to Europe at taxpayers’ expense, in breach of rules limiting the benefit to spouses. She nonetheless survived by 0.9% at the 2004 election, despite suffering a swing which was not reflected in neighbouring seats. Draper retired at the 2007 election citing an illness in the family, before unsuccessfully attempting a comeback in the state seat of Newland at the March 2010 election.

Tony Zappia won Makin for Labor on his second attempt in 2007, and handsomely increased his margin to 12.2% in 2010. He had been the mayor of Salisbury since 1997, a councillor for many years beforehand, and at one time a weightlifting champion. Zappia was widely reckoned to have been victim of his own factional non-alignment when the Right’s Julie Woodman defeated him for preselection in 2001, and a repeat performance appeared on the cards when a factional deal ahead of the 2004 election reserved the seat for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left”. The arrangement displeased local branches as well as party hard-heads concerned that a crucial marginal seat should be contested by the most appealing candidate, and Premier Mike Rann prevailed upon Wortley’s backers to throw their weight behind Zappia.

The move appeared a dead end for Zappia in the short term, as he was unable to win the seat in 2004 whereas Wortley was elected from the Senate position she was offered as consolation. However, he performed considerably better with the electoral breeze at his back in 2007, demolishing the 0.9% Liberal margin with a swing of 8.6%. This was achieved in the face of a high-impact publicity campaign by Liberal candidate Bob Day, housing tycoon and national president of the Housing Industry Association who has since run for election with Family First.

The once non-aligned Zappia is now a member of the Left, and is believed to have backed Kevin Rudd during his February 2012 leadership challenge. His Liberal opponent is Sue Lawrie, who has variously run flower sales businesses and worked on the staff of various Liberal MPs. Lawrie has run several times at state level, most recently as an independent Liberal at the Port Adelaide by-election of February 2012.

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1401 comments

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gloryconsequence
Guest

Need links to Howard saying in 2007 we should lead on climate change regardless of the rest of the world.

Any good ones?

Mick Wilkinson
Guest
Anyone here who has anything to do with the ALP in terms of support should be utterly ashamed at the proceedings of the NSW ICAC enquiry at present. Ian MacDonald is yet another ex-Labor minister crooker than a dog’s hind leg. Nuttall in Queensland, Judy Spence, Craig Thomson and MacDonald levering his bloody mate into tens of millions of dollars through blatantly obvious conflict of interest. He makes a mockery of the inquiry by absurd assertions of innocence and statistically incalculable probabilities. I seem to recall the same absurd explanations arising from one Craig Thomson with regards to his wallet… Read more »
John Turner
Guest
Good that you’ve mentioned Makin, despite its large ALP margin, as the media have written it off as safe Labor. State ( & Fed ) Labor take the Adelaide northern suburbs for granted: ex Premier Rann (former northern suburbs MP though not resident)’ s government promised the earth, eg electrifying the Gawler railway.His ALP successor Mr Weatherill has broken this promise, though many locals will remember the shutdown of the line 3 times in the last 2 or so years (more than a year all up) twice for claimed (now redundant) pre-electrification works, the most recent to allow the groundwork… Read more »
Fran Barlow
Guest
Poroti: [My fave saying about common sense is “Common sense is not so common.”] I often give a fuller version. That which is common, rarely amounts to sense and that which amounts to sense is most uncommon I can’t recall where I first heard this aphorism — I always assumed it was one of Mencken’s dicta — but oddly the only references to it on the internet (with some variations) are in my posts … I always like the sound of the antimetabolic, so perhaps I coined it. If someone can find a version of it that pre-dates one of… Read more »
markjs
Guest

Mari @1184…

With Graeme Wood being an investor in both The Global Mail & The Australian Guardian …there is an obvious linkage. How this translates to editorial policy/linkage of stories/campaigns etc. I don’t know.

Interesting times though 🙂

Laocoon
Guest

If Abbott does not want to looked like a stunned mullet, it might be a good idea not to ask too many dixers…

Scringler
Guest
[ … the IPA get even more free airtime on ABC. They and other conservative lobbyists now get about 60-70% of guest spots on the various ABC chat shows. ] Sustainable future,@1329 Drives me crazy, too. Seems the ABC’s concept of “balance” is to wheel in a couple of comedians to counter the nut jobs. Nothing against comedians, but I find the present crop unfunny. The ABC seems to be besotted by comedians. Dunno, maybe they’re cheap. IPA types are presented on ABC programs as good, sane chaps. Hale fellow, well met. A hypothetical question – at the risk of… Read more »
The Finnigans
Guest

I think it is very sad that we congratulate journos for writing objective, fact based, fair & balanced articles

BH
Guest

K, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?]

3 weeks of wall to wall feel good stories about Tone and the girls, Peta and JulieB.

3 weeks of rotten stories for PM on Thomson, Obeid and any policy decision the Libs trash, not to mention internal scuffles.

Last week almost every journo wrote and spoke of the alternative PM looking so much the kinder, gentler stateman.

BH
Guest

[probably mentioned already, but the UK Guardian has been the leader in invetigative journalism leading to the outing of Rupert Murdoch’s organs as serial law breakers.]

Only one thing wrong with this. The bloke who is setting up The Guardian here is a former FoxNews chief, isn’t he?

mari
Guest

Gecko
Posted Monday, February 11, 2013 at 1:13 pm | PERMALINK
[Mari

Any more pithy remarks for me to post on Twitter???

Goodness… hmmm let me see… pithy…

Alert: Abbott had to repeal the MRRT because it destroyed mining. Now he has to repeal it because it isn’t.]

OK done 2 retweets already, tell you you are famous even as an anonymous Poll Bludger OK see you off now for the afternoon

Sustainable future
Guest
When Mob-lib turns up, maybe we can get the names of the liberal shadow ministers and policies better than labor’s and an explanation why. I can make it easy with a tick box response. “I like the LNP because: – they make unfunded promises and lie about having had them fully costed and audited. – they repeatedly show themselves to be scientifically and economically illiterate, and I don’t want elitists smart people running the country. – they love to fan the flames of racism and xenophobia – their answer to improving productivity is to cut minimum wages and working conditions,… Read more »
Doyley
Guest

The reason the PM has gone backwards is simple.

The way the OM reported the election date, the cabinet reshuffle and Nova Peris.

A reaction to noise.

Simple.

davidwh
Guest

I’d say the PM’s approval rating has slipped because people don’t view some of the happenings over the past few weeks with the same enthusiasm as most people here. A lot has happened in a short period of time including the Peris appointment, the early election announcement, the retirements, the arrest of Thomson, ICAC and the MRRT collections confirmation. All these have likely feed into sentiment in one way or another.

ajm
Guest

lefty e@1378


OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?

Because people hear this question as “Who have you heard favourable coverage in the media about lately?”

The weakness of polls this far out from an election IMHO is that they measure meta-opinion rather than opinion. In other words, people respond as to how they see the “vibe” (or opinion anout opinion) and that is heavily conditioned by the media.

Gecko
Guest

[OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time.]

Glasses, earlobes and she refuses to run away from pressers. Its obvious isn’t it?

Player One
Guest

[ OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement? ]

Just offhand, I’d say equal parts Obeid and the fact that Abbott has dropped off the radar in the past few weeks. He always polls better in his absence.

Both of these effects should fade soon.

leone
Guest

Sorry, wrong button
Essential have a pool of regulars they poll and the pool was formed from people who signed up online. It’s not exactly representative. All polls have issues, Essential has more than the others.

Gary
Guest

[OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?]
Maybe because the media want to turn everything she says and does into a negative.

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