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Tasmanian Politics

Feb 19, 2013

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The latest quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention has Labor slumping four points to a new low of 23%, with the Liberals sustaining their majority-busting 55% and the Greens up three to 18%. Premier Lara Giddings and Liberal leader Will Hodgman are both down a point, to 24% for Giddings and 46% for Hodgman, with Nick McKim up two to 13%. The poll targets 1000 respondents and has a theoretical margin of error of 3%.

NOTE: Apologies for reading off the wrong column in the table in the first version of this post, though luckily the numbers weren’t much different.

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35 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

Not-A-Poll: Best Tasmanian Premier of the past 30 years is finished. Write-up is here

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/not-poll-best-tasmanian-premier-of-last.html

and includes career stats for each Premier, and stuff about the pitfalls of opt-in polling generally, as well as the Ubermotive attack on opt-in poll sites, the Galaxy best PMs of the last 25 years poll debacle, and so on.

Psephos
Guest
Kevin, based on LGA population figures, my estimate of the 25 seats in a single-seat Tasmanian House would be: 1. North West (Circular Head, King Id, part of Waratah-Wynyard) 2. West Coast-Derwent (West Coast, Central Highlands, Derwent Vally, part of Waratah-Wynyard) 3. Burnie 4. Ulverstone (Central Coast) 5. Devonport 6. Kentish-Latrobe (including eastern Devonport) 7. West Tamar 8, 9, 10. North, Central, South Launceston 11. North East (George Town, Dorset, Break O’Day, Flinders Id) 12. Meander Valley 13. Midlands (North and South Midlands) 14. East Coast (Sorrell, Tasman, Glamorgan-Spring Bay) 15. Brighton and North Glenorchy 16. Huon Valley and South… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

If I have an idle moment I might use the Senate booth figures to construct a 25 single-seat map.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@31


Where would the safe Lib seat in Hobart be?

Southern suburbs centred around Lower Sandy Bay. LegCo seat of Nelson minus its ultra-Green fringes would make a seat that would sometimes be Lib-Green 2PP and sometimes Lib-ALP, but it wouldn’t matter which because the Lib primary would be pushing 50.

Psephos
Guest

Where would the safe Lib seat in Hobart be?

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Psephos@28 I’d be interested in Kevin’s view on how Tasmania would vote if it was divided into 25 or 35 single-member seats. Denison cut into five would probably be two ultra-safe Labor, one safe Lib, one Green and one that might be won by a Wilkie-style left independent. Rest of the state I haven’t looked closely but I don’t think there’d be many very safe seats for either side. Outside the Denison area the Greens would really struggle to get anything. It’s likely Labor would be advantaged and would win much more often than not in the long term. Especially… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

Viktor Pasztory@25


In very UNLIKELY event this result were to be replicated federally Labor and the greens would walk away with one seat each.

Yes I had a question about this on my site the other day. The short answer is that while the swing is probably about the same the federal base vote for Labor is much higher and therefore it isn’t at all likely to happen. The swing needed for 4 Lib Senators in Tas is about 21%.

Psephos
Guest
The reason the ACT has PR rather than single-member seats is that Canberra has been deliberately designed to be a socially-homogenous city. There are no strongly working-class areas or strongly upper-class areas as you have in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth (less so in Brisbane). Single-member seat systems only produce a reasonable approximation of a proportional result when both major parties have geographical bases. That is not the case in the ACT, so in most ACT elections Labor would win nearly all the seats. (This is what happens in Singapore, for example. The PAP polls about 55-60% of the vote… Read more »
Viktor Pasztory
Guest

It would be fun seeing the greens replacing labor in the primary vote.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

In the Senate of course.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

In very UNLIKELY event this result were to be replicated federally Labor and the greens would walk away with one seat each.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

And more blatant spam since this is a Tassie thread: My LegCo challengers article for the three seats vacant in May is here:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/legco-two-early-challengers.html

It is updated whenever a new candidate is announced. Presently there are two known candidates for Pembroke, two for Montgomery and two and a half for Nelson.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
The main reason for the five in a row was that the Lowe government imploded over the Franklin Dam dispute, with Lowe being rolled by Holgate and quitting the party, which then suffered a 17-point swing. Thus there was a switch from a majority of one party at one election to a majority of the other at the next, the only time this has happened under HC. Jim Bacon is rocking and rolling from beyond the grave in my Not-A-Poll for best Tassie Premier of the last 30 years; out to a 30-18 lead now, if no-one stacks it I… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
Sportsbet has opened at: Lib $1.15 ALP $6 Green $13 to provide Premier after the next election. —————– Pre the Greens era, Hare-Clark under the 30 seat system produced four cases where one party had exactly half the seats but there was one independent, one case of 14-13-3, one Nationalist/Country coalition, and two deadlocked 15-15s. This from 17 elections so nine outright majorities in that time. After the two 15-15s the House was expanded to 35. There were then two hung parliaments in the next three elections, followed by five majority results in a row under 35 seats. Since the… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest

Hare-Clark has been around in Tasmania for a century. Tasmanian politicians are used to it. It’s not going anywhere.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
dovif@16 What is the odds that the ALP and Liberals will unit get rid of the Hare-Clark systems after the next election? Afterall the last 2 ALP-Greens government has worked so well? I don’t think the Libs would even need Labor’s support to get rid of it if they won a majority, just the Legislative Council’s. I think they would be extremely foolish to do so without holding a plebiscite first. One feature of HC that Tasmanians really like is that you can kick out sitting members without voting against your own party. One never knows what the Libs might… Read more »
slackboy72
Guest

55%?
Wow.

dovif
Guest

What is the odds that the ALP and Liberals will unit get rid of the Hare-Clark systems after the next election? Afterall the last 2 ALP-Greens government has worked so well?

And it is pretty hard to see ALP governing without the Greens under Hare-Clark anytime soon

1934pc
Guest

WB
“Then advocate a shift from a parliamentary to a presidential system. If parliament’s just going to be a rubber stamp for a disciplined party that holds a clear majority, why bother with it? Why not just elect a president and give him or her a fixed term to get on with the job?”

Your talking to someone who has just received his long trousers who thinks he knows it all!.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Matty D@11 Just saying that I don’t support hung Parliaments, and I think that the majority should rule. I read that, looking at the swing and results in the ACT, the Libs would be in power, if the system everywhere else in Australia, were in place. I think whoever said that is just wrong. Labor and the Liberals got almost exactly the same primary vote in the ACT. Of the remaining parties the Greens (Labor friendly preferences) had 10.7%, the Motorists (Liberal friendly) 4.7% and Bullet Train (all over the place) 4.2%. The rest was shrapnel. There is just no… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest
[Just saying that I don’t support hung Parliaments, and I think that the majority should rule.] The majority does rule. That’s how parliaments work. Sometimes one party doesn’t compose the majority. Again, that’s how parliaments work. [I read that, looking at the swing and results in the ACT, the Libs would be in power, if the system everywhere else in Australia, were in place.] I don’t know. But as both Lab and Lib were at the same PV with the Greens getting 10 odd percent, I imagine it’d be easier for Labor to win in a single member electorate parliament.… Read more »
Matty D
Guest

Just saying that I don’t support hung Parliaments, and I think that the majority should rule.

I read that, looking at the swing and results in the ACT, the Libs would be in power, if the system everywhere else in Australia, were in place.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[It’s just that Hare Clark doesn’t allow a landslide majority to any one party.]

And that matters how?

[Look at how well the Libs have to poll just to win government.]

They have the exact same chance to win as any of the other parties. If they don’t appeal to enough Tasmanians, that’s their problem.

[Also, if the ACT didn’t have Hare Clark, the Libs would be in power there.]

How so?

Matty D
Guest

It’s just that Hare Clark doesn’t allow a landslide majority to any one party. Look at how well the Libs have to poll just to win government. Also, if the ACT didn’t have Hare Clark, the Libs would be in power there.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Good result for the Libs, but they deserve better than 15/16 out of 25 seats with results like this. Hare Clark is a rotten system.]

They deserve more than 60-64% of the seats with 55% of the vote?

Right.

Matty D
Guest

Good result for the Libs, but they deserve better than 15/16 out of 25 seats with results like this. Hare Clark is a rotten system.

Kevin Bonham
Guest
Any Tassie readers who have not already done so please vote (if you have a view) in my Not-A-Poll (because it’s an optin!) on Best Tasmanian Premier of the last 30 years http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/emrs-expected-today.html Currently the vote is skewing heavily to Labor which I think reflects the fact that my main audiences (TT, here, Twitter) are all left-leaning on average. Plus we have had no Liberal Premier since 1998 so the younger voters do not know the three Libs in the poll. Giddings’ staffers (and probably Green and feminist voters too) are keeping Giddings near the lead but at present it’s… Read more »
meher baba
Guest
Re Denison:I don’t think it was just Wilkie, I just don’t think there is much of a Liberal constituency there any more. I’m sure that Archer and Groom will be returned, but I just can’t see them pushing beyond that. Franklin is a much better chance for them, and it’s no certainty either. I agree re Sturgess and it is also my impression that there isn’t much Labor talent in the wings (people like Dean Winter: nice guy, but seems so young as to have a touch of Andy Hardy about him). But surely to goodness Labor will get to… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest
meher baba@3 It’s a good result for the Libs, and would see them getting 15 seats if the election was held right tnow (I cannot believe that the Libs are going to get 3 members in Denison on a primary vote of less than 50%: remember, they rather fluked their second seat last time). The only reason their second seat was so close last time was that Wilkie, who was taking votes mostly from the Greens and Liberals, nearly nicked it. Without that they would have had about two quotas and won the second reasonably comfortably. If the state swing… Read more »
meher baba
Guest
It’s a good result for the Libs, and would see them getting 15 seats if the election was held right tnow (I cannot believe that the Libs are going to get 3 members in Denison on a primary vote of less than 50%: remember, they rather fluked their second seat last time). But, come election day, the Libs are still going to have to win 4 seats in Braddon and 3 in Bass (or vice versa, but I reckon Braddon is their best shot) or else one extra seat in either Lyons or Franklin. Assuming that there will be some… Read more »
Kevin Bonham
Guest

You have the Feb 2012 figures there, Feb 2013 is 55-23-18. Confusing table presentation.

My coverage at: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/emrs-expected-today.html

Liberals would be very happy with this.

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