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Tasmanian Politics

Feb 19, 2013

The latest quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention has Labor slumping four points to a new low of 23%, with the Liberals sustaining their majority-busting 55% and the Greens up three to 18%. Premier Lara Giddings and Liberal leader Will Hodgman are both down a point, to 24% for Giddings and 46% for Hodgman, with Nick McKim up two to 13%. The poll targets 1000 respondents and has a theoretical margin of error of 3%.

NOTE: Apologies for reading off the wrong column in the table in the first version of this post, though luckily the numbers weren’t much different.

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35 comments

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Kevin Bonham
Guest

Not-A-Poll: Best Tasmanian Premier of the past 30 years is finished. Write-up is here

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/not-poll-best-tasmanian-premier-of-last.html

and includes career stats for each Premier, and stuff about the pitfalls of opt-in polling generally, as well as the Ubermotive attack on opt-in poll sites, the Galaxy best PMs of the last 25 years poll debacle, and so on.

Psephos
Guest

Kevin, based on LGA population figures, my estimate of the 25 seats in a single-seat Tasmanian House would be:

1. North West (Circular Head, King Id, part of Waratah-Wynyard)
2. West Coast-Derwent (West Coast, Central Highlands, Derwent Vally, part of Waratah-Wynyard)
3. Burnie
4. Ulverstone (Central Coast)
5. Devonport
6. Kentish-Latrobe (including eastern Devonport)
7. West Tamar
8, 9, 10. North, Central, South Launceston
11. North East (George Town, Dorset, Break O’Day, Flinders Id)
12. Meander Valley
13. Midlands (North and South Midlands)
14. East Coast (Sorrell, Tasman, Glamorgan-Spring Bay)
15. Brighton and North Glenorchy
16. Huon Valley and South Kingborough
17, 18. Central, South Glenorchy
19, 20. North, South Clarence
21, 22. North, Central Kingborough
23, 24, 25. North, Central, South Hobart

Psephos
Guest

If I have an idle moment I might use the Senate booth figures to construct a 25 single-seat map.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@31


Where would the safe Lib seat in Hobart be?

Southern suburbs centred around Lower Sandy Bay. LegCo seat of Nelson minus its ultra-Green fringes would make a seat that would sometimes be Lib-Green 2PP and sometimes Lib-ALP, but it wouldn’t matter which because the Lib primary would be pushing 50.

Psephos
Guest

Where would the safe Lib seat in Hobart be?

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Psephos@28

I’d be interested in Kevin’s view on how Tasmania would vote if it was divided into 25 or 35 single-member seats.

Denison cut into five would probably be two ultra-safe Labor, one safe Lib, one Green and one that might be won by a Wilkie-style left independent.

Rest of the state I haven’t looked closely but I don’t think there’d be many very safe seats for either side. Outside the Denison area the Greens would really struggle to get anything. It’s likely Labor would be advantaged and would win much more often than not in the long term. Especially if preferencing was compulsory.

Swings would be much less dramatic. A lot of the swings we see now are a result of voters trying to elect majority governments and jumping on board whichever side looks like winning. We just wouldn’t keep getting really lopsided vote-share results like 1992, 2002, (2014) etc.

I think we’d also see less dud strategising from the major parties. Hare-Clark tends to cushion the impact of failure – if you can poll a mid-20s primary and still hold most of your seats then the backbench pressure for being competitive isn’t as strong. Under a single-seat system there’d be a lot more incentive for parties to fight hard for the middle ground.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Viktor Pasztory@25


In very UNLIKELY event this result were to be replicated federally Labor and the greens would walk away with one seat each.

Yes I had a question about this on my site the other day. The short answer is that while the swing is probably about the same the federal base vote for Labor is much higher and therefore it isn’t at all likely to happen. The swing needed for 4 Lib Senators in Tas is about 21%.

Psephos
Guest

The reason the ACT has PR rather than single-member seats is that Canberra has been deliberately designed to be a socially-homogenous city. There are no strongly working-class areas or strongly upper-class areas as you have in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth (less so in Brisbane). Single-member seat systems only produce a reasonable approximation of a proportional result when both major parties have geographical bases. That is not the case in the ACT, so in most ACT elections Labor would win nearly all the seats. (This is what happens in Singapore, for example. The PAP polls about 55-60% of the vote across all the seats, so the opposition wins nothing despite polling 40% of the vote.)

I’d be interested in Kevin’s view on how Tasmania would vote if it was divided into 25 or 35 single-member seats.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

It would be fun seeing the greens replacing labor in the primary vote.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

In the Senate of course.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

In very UNLIKELY event this result were to be replicated federally Labor and the greens would walk away with one seat each.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

And more blatant spam since this is a Tassie thread: My LegCo challengers article for the three seats vacant in May is here:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/legco-two-early-challengers.html

It is updated whenever a new candidate is announced. Presently there are two known candidates for Pembroke, two for Montgomery and two and a half for Nelson.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

The main reason for the five in a row was that the Lowe government imploded over the Franklin Dam dispute, with Lowe being rolled by Holgate and quitting the party, which then suffered a 17-point swing. Thus there was a switch from a majority of one party at one election to a majority of the other at the next, the only time this has happened under HC.

Jim Bacon is rocking and rolling from beyond the grave in my Not-A-Poll for best Tassie Premier of the last 30 years; out to a 30-18 lead now, if no-one stacks it I think the ABC computer might be giving this one away soon. (It runs til the end of the month). Voting in the sidebar at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Sportsbet has opened at:

Lib $1.15
ALP $6
Green $13

to provide Premier after the next election.

—————–

Pre the Greens era, Hare-Clark under the 30 seat system produced four cases where one party had exactly half the seats but there was one independent, one case of 14-13-3, one Nationalist/Country coalition, and two deadlocked 15-15s. This from 17 elections so nine outright majorities in that time. After the two 15-15s the House was expanded to 35.

There were then two hung parliaments in the next three elections, followed by five majority results in a row under 35 seats.

Since the rise of the Greens as a statewide force (1989) there have been three minority results out of seven – two out of three with 35 seats, one out of four with 25.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Hare-Clark has been around in Tasmania for a century. Tasmanian politicians are used to it. It’s not going anywhere.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

dovif@16


What is the odds that the ALP and Liberals will unit get rid of the Hare-Clark systems after the next election? Afterall the last 2 ALP-Greens government has worked so well?

I don’t think the Libs would even need Labor’s support to get rid of it if they won a majority, just the Legislative Council’s.

I think they would be extremely foolish to do so without holding a plebiscite first. One feature of HC that Tasmanians really like is that you can kick out sitting members without voting against your own party.

One never knows what the Libs might try once in government though. I did rattle Hodgman’s cage about whether he was a closet UK Tory-style first-past-the-post supporter in 2011 prompting his COS to state “And for the record, of course Mr Hodgman supports preferential voting. “.

slackboy72
Guest

55%?
Wow.

dovif
Guest

What is the odds that the ALP and Liberals will unit get rid of the Hare-Clark systems after the next election? Afterall the last 2 ALP-Greens government has worked so well?

And it is pretty hard to see ALP governing without the Greens under Hare-Clark anytime soon

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