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Galaxy: 56-44 to Liberal-Nationals in WA

The second major poll of the Western Australian election campaign, conducted between Tuesday and Thursday by Galaxy, produces very similar results to the first.

Two weeks out from the Western Australian election, the Sunday Times has published a Galaxy poll of 800 respondents conducted between Tuesday and Thursday which shows the Liberal-Nationals leading 56-44 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 43% for the Liberals, 7% for the Nationals and 9% for the Greens. The 2008 election results were Labor 35.9%, Liberal 38.4%, Nationals 4.9%, Greens 11.9% and 51.9-48.1 two-party preferred. The poll, which in all respects closely echoes the Newspoll result of a fortnight ago, nonetheless has Mark McGowan performing competitive as preferred premier, trailing Colin Barnett 49-43. Further findings:

• 54% rate the Liberals as better for managing the state economy and finances against 37% for Labor;

• 37% say Troy Buswell makes them less inclined to vote Liberal against 6% for more inclined;

• Labor leads 46% to 40% on having the best plan for public transport.

UPDATE: Further results here. Sadly for Labor, they trail 45-40 and 44-39 as the best party to handle their traditional strong suits of health and education, as well as trailing 50-33 on law and order. Labor leads 42-38 on protection of water resources and the environment.

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42 comments

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Kevin Rennie
Guest

I’m interested in how many reputable opinion polls there have been in recent months. An ABC reporter claimed this morning that there have been “lots” of them. National coverage of this election has been abysmal.

Compact Crank
Guest

Liberals will win easily.

Albany is gone. ALP Only won by a bee’s dick last time.

ALP should take Morley back despite having a Western Suburbs millionaire as a candidate.

Bob’s back! And Sutherland in Mt Lawley must be shitting bricks – one to watch.

Carps
Guest

Surely the Libs can’t be serious about Belmont and West Swan. If they are, then Labor will obviously be in very deep trouble.

Pilbra appears to be gone for Labor. I just hope that someone (Lab or Lib) knocks off Vince Catania in North West…a talentless hack if ever there was one (and yes, I thought exactly the same thing when he was a Labor man).

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

Paddy O
One other thing- the media have really missed the strategic significance of metronet and the link with Labor must win seats -e.g. wanerroo. We really need some marginal seat polling by the west Aust or newspoll.

The media’s not the only one that’s missed it. Several commenters here have too. These sorts of things are the things that turn individual seats against the general swing… and it provides a path for Labor to at least minimise their net loss of seats.

Unfortunately, nobody cares enough about a state election in backwater WA to do marginal seat polling.

Paddy O
Guest

One other thing- the media have really missed the strategic significance of metronet and the link with Labor must win seats -e.g. wanerroo. We really need some marginal seat polling by the west Aust or newspoll.

Paddy O
Guest

The ferret in the Sunday Times thinks Grylls is not a Shoo-in for the Pilbara. What are the permutations for Pilbara – William and Anthony- re who needs to come where on the ballot and preference flows?

Paddy O
Guest

I believe West Swan is safe for Lab. The Ellenbrook train no-promise was going to hurt the Lib Alban in Swan Hills, but he lost the Ellenbrook part of his electorate.

the issue is whether McGowan’s improved popularity is part of momentum to Labor, or just that the electorate thinks he’s ok but thinks Labor needs another term in the wilderness.

dovif
Guest

Some in here seem to think that a 56-44 2pp will result in the alp with the majority of seats, south Australia is a 1 in a million event. If the result is 54-46 the liberals will be very close to governing outright. As for seats going to the alp. Apart from the 5% swing and the liberal marginals generally getting a sophomore surge. I find it hard to believe that any seats will go toward the alp

As for potter. He is going federal because of how likely the liberals will win. He is going from one government to another

Woeisme
Guest

William

I think the signs on every corner is happening in many different seats and not just west swan. Even the lib in Midland is plastering his posters etc everywhere. Then there is Belmont, Cannington etc who area also experiencing the same phenomenon. The LIbs are cashed up and have money to burn ….. In West Swan I think there are also some personalities who have an approach to campaigning on the Libs side akin to religious zealotry.

My thinking is that West Swan, Gosnells are well and truly safe for labor with the Libs getting swings to them in the seats they already hold.

ltep
Guest

[it should have been a cakewalk for barnett but it will probably be your old average win]

Might be a tad of a stretch to suggest a 56/44 win would be ‘your old average win’.

Rossmcg
Guest

The consensus is that buswell’s by far the most talented liberal but of course there are other issues there. As for the rest of the liberal team, well this is a govenment that had Rob Johnson as police minister until just over a year ago ! And Christian Porter liked the look of the future so much that he baled out …

WeWantPaul
Guest

I meant ‘don’t necessarily disagree’, but nor do I agree. Seems almost inevitable now but it is really unfortunate for Perth that millions of perth residents are destined to miss out on metronet, but on the other hand we get more of the bell towers and Elizabeth trenchs for the few thousand they support.

Barnett would have to be the definition of mediocre and he is by far the most talented liberal.

WeWantPaul
Guest

[If Labor holds more than 22 seats at this election I’ll be very surprised. Their team is just so bland and devoid of talent. One of the most unremarkable state oppositions in living memory. Couple that with the general success of Barnett’s first term and you’re looking at a very comfortable re-election.]

I don’t disagree with your prediction based on the polls but your other comments are hilarious, if you consider Barnett’s first term was a success in any metric other than polling you are clearly not just drinking the koolaid but making it and marketing it.

Nemspy
Guest

If Labor holds more than 22 seats at this election I’ll be very surprised. Their team is just so bland and devoid of talent. One of the most unremarkable state oppositions in living memory. Couple that with the general success of Barnett’s first term and you’re looking at a very comfortable re-election.

Arrnea Stormbringer
Guest

Mod Lib
Who knows how the current 4.1% swing to the LNP is broken up regionally, but:
a 2.2% Perth swing with
a 3.9% Non-Perth swing

….would give the Libs the 30 seats they need for majority government in their own right.

The problem here is that you’re assuming the swing will even be uniform across the metro area.

As for the Kimberley and Pilbara seats that Antony mentioned were at serious risk of loss by Labor, there are issues aside from the general swing away from Labor at work in those seats, namely the Nationals gaining appeal in the rural electorates and the fact that Grylls himself is running for the Pilbara seat.

I’m not kidding myself here; Labor is almost certainly going to lose, but I think the closeness of it will surprise some people, despite the polls apparently pointing to a whitewash… because I think a lot of that swing is going to be wasted on seats that the Liberals already hold, or seats that Labor holds by too much for the Liberals to take.

Utopia
Guest

Who knows how the current 4.1% swing to the LNP is broken up regionally, but:
a 2.2% Perth swing with
a 3.9% Non-Perth swing

….would give the Libs the 30 seats they need for majority government in their own right.

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