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NSW Politics

Feb 24, 2013

Newspoll: 60-40 to Coalition in NSW

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll result for New South Wales shows essentially no change on voting intention, but an improvement in Barry O'Farrell's personal ratings.

James J and GhostWhoVotes report that the New South Wales state Newspoll result for January and February has the Coalition leading 60-40 on two-party preferred, up from 59-41, from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 27% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Barry O’Farrell reverses a downward trend by picking up five on approval to 43% and dropping two on disapproval to 38%, while John Robertson is respectively up one to 28% and up two to disapproval to 35%. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 44-21 to 48-19.

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29 comments

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dovif
Guest
Socrate It will take 15 years to sack at the ALP hangers-on that resides in the public service for the last 15 years. I think I will give the benefit of the doubt to Baird for the next 14 years Psepho, the Qld 2PP is 58% to the Liberal, I believe KAP will draw enough votes from the ALP in the senate to make it almost a certain 3 LNP, 2 AL, 1 KAP/ONP/CDP/FF. The NLP will likely have 3+ quota in its own right, its surplus will likely elect the survivor of KAP/ONP/CDP/FF. The Greens will be well short… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

I agree Psephos and was being sarcastic. One mistake in a large document is forgiveable but multiple large errors in a document as important as the budget (and presumably carefully checked), reflects poorly on Baird.

Roy Orbison
Guest
[I think you’ll find ministers are responsible to parliament for the accuracy of documents they present] I think you will find that this minister, like every one of them in this government (and there have been a few) will skate. And it will go one happening for a number of years until the utter stupidity washes through the electorate aka Ray Hadley’s audience. Then again, that may take some time. The MSM/LNP coalition are now just a couple of governments away from total domination. They aren’t going to watch a little thing like legal responsibility get in their way. For… Read more »
Psephos
Guest

I think you’ll find ministers are responsible to parliament for the accuracy of documents they present.

Socrates
Guest
Oops, wrong thread. Speaking of errors, looks like Mike Baird has made $3 billion worth of them. [The latest report of the NSW auditor-general, Peter Achterstraat, shows state government agencies and departments made errors worth more than $3 billion when they handed over their books to him last July after the 2011-12 budget. The net value of state assets was misvalued by $1.28 billion while net income was out by $2 billion.] http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-budget-errors-more-than-3b-report-reveals-20130226-2f46g.html#ixzz2M3xaf5wh They say that success has many fathers and failure is an orphan. No doubt many public servants caused these errors. Baird cannot be blamed. All he did… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

John Kerry says “Americans have the right to be stupid”.
http://media.smh.com.au/national/selections/kerry-americans-have-a-right-to-be-stupid-4065210.html?from=newsbox

He sums up US economic, foreign, health and gun policy in one sentence. Eloquent.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

This is true. Also in WA the fourth seat would got to the nationals who are not technically apart of the coalition. In my opinion however the argument that the Greens will hold the sole balance of power in the Senate next term is by no means as certain as some outlets say it is.

Psephos
Guest

You’re assuming Katter intends running for the Senate. The last press report I saw said that he’d decided not to. I agree he’d walk it in if he did. Whether he can get a proxy elected is another matter.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest
Psephos I agree with all your assessments except the one on Queensland. During Queensland state election Labor lost so badly because the greens and Katter both drew votes away from them. Bob Katter is strongly pro union and did draw votes from former Labor voters, even through they like to portray him as a radical right winger. His preference vote has higher then the greens last state election and if he gets four percent of Labor voters to put him first or to put him ahead of the greens it would be enough for a senate seat combined with the… Read more »
Psephos
Guest
If the Coalition gains three Senate seats, they will need both Madigan and Xenophon to pass bills. If they pick up four, they will need only Madigan. If they pick up five, they will have a majority in their own right. Thus, to repeal the carbon price, they need only three gains, but to bring back WorkChoices, they need five. In 2007 the Coalition won three seats out of six in NSW, Vic, Qld and WA. To win a fourth seat in these states they will need 57% after preferences, which is possible in NSW, Qld and WA. On current… Read more »
dovif
Guest

Socrates

I do not believe the Vic ALP preferencing Fielding was a mistake, it helped passed Workchoice.

The next ALP government might prefer to have the option to negotiate with the Fieldings, Xenophone, (even Katters of the world) rather then having to rely on the greens for everything. (with the option of choosing the Greens)

For 2013, the ALP has the option of reducing the Greens to one single senate seat (Tasmania) in Parliament. In my opinion, that might be a good outcome for the ALP

Socrates
Guest

dovif 11/12

Fair enough. When I think back of the genius of Victorian Labor preferencing Fielding ahead of the Greens in a fit of stupidity and spite in a previous election, your comments on minor parties could hold true. I can’t see the LNP picking up four in their own right, but combined with minors, yet it is possible.

Roy Orbison
Guest
[the fact is that the new NSW premier has made few mistakes so far] The fact is that the new NSW premier has done very little so far. Unless you count sucking up to Ray Hadley on a daily basis as a good thing. Or cutting back financing on the Pacific Highway after spending ten years whingeing about how slow progress is. The Obeid thing won’t last forever, although the love affair between the MSM and the LNP will. That said, O’Farrell needs a conviction or two out of these ICAC proceedings. The public, especially these days, demands regular hangings… Read more »
dovif
Guest

Viktor

I think the odds of SA returning 3Lib/2ALP/1Xeno would make it possible for a Liberal governments to pass legislation with 4 (newly elected) votes from SA after the next election. ie bypass ALP/Greens.

If there is a Liberal government, that is

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

Dovif I agree with you a 3/3 L/R split is most likely if you consider Xenophone left.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/results/senate/sa.htm

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

Also Julian Assange might just make the Victoria a state worth watching with the disillusionment in the general community. He is known among my friends as someone new how can shack things up, the nuclear option as you will.

Viktor Pasztory
Guest

Nick Xenophone is a strange one he is probably slightly to the left of center but not on all issues. I was reading Anthony’s senate projections it and he misses the fact that to get a working senate all the liberals have to do is pick up 4 seats in one of the states be it NSW, Queensland, or WA. Even back in 2007 which was a low point for the liberals, they were only two percentage away from getting a third quota, surly there support has increased since then.

dovif
Guest

Socrate when I speak of the right, I am thinking the last seats in Qld/WA/NSW/SA will likely be filled by Katter/FF/Xenophone etc

dovif
Guest
Hi Socrate I am using Bludger track 2013 to the right, where he is quote 2PP numbers In Qld and WA, where the right 2PP indicate the right to have 4.13 and 4.235 quotas, that should be sufficient for the right to win 4 seats with leakage, and the Left (ALP and greens) parties to get only 2 seats with 2.87 and 2.765 quotas In NSW the L/R 2PP is 56.5/43.5 ie a left right split of 3.955/3.045. with the ongoing ICAA investigation, the right has a chance for 4 quotas too In SA, the L/R 2PP is currently 55.3-44.7,… Read more »
Socrates
Guest
Having said that Qld is recovering somewhat for Labor, NSW polling remains aweful. Labor can’t blame the voters either, or the media. Despite Labor sniggeringly referring to the new premier as “Fatty O’Barrell”, the fact is that the new NSW premier has made few mistakes so far. He seems a much more reliable performer than Campbell Newman. If he can achieve some meaingful reforms of the NSW State authorities, like Sydney Rail, and be seen to fix some of the problems, liek a second harbour crossing and NW Sydney rail, he could be premier for a long time. It will… Read more »
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