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Federal Election 2013

Mar 2, 2013

Seat of the week: Capricornia

It took the landslide defeats of the Whitlam and Keating governments to loosen Labor's grip on the central Queensland seat of Capricornia. The risk of a repeat has increased with the recently announced retirement of sitting member Kirsten Livermore.

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).

The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.

A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.

The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.

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rummel
Guest

[Diogenes
Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 2:31 pm | PERMALINK
A Labor Minister has dinner every night with the Editor of News Ltd. ]

Nasty NEWS Ltd will do anything to bring down this government, even wedding off there own Editors to Labor ministers for inside information.

bluepill
Guest

Dave

Ha ha! I am flattered by your comment!
[I have been studying bluepill dating back years and have noticed that he tend to follow predictable and increasingly narrow patterns of argument, often reduced to a line, phrase or even just a label.

This is pretty common…

The claims you attempt to make, work pretty well aimed back at you.]

The reason why I am flattered is that very few people ever confess that my arguments are brief!!!

bluepill
Guest
Puff I am so proud of you reading something other than glossy ALP literature, well done. Yeah, nice to see that you can even look stuff up on the internet.. keep going! I teach the stuff, I have to read journals about cognition and neuroscience and deal with research on it, so yeah, it is an area of interest. Processes do shift and grow from various parts of the brain during normal development and expression of emotion is one of these. You correctly stated that aggressive male behaviour can be associated with enlarged Amygdalae (well actually you talked about the… Read more »
bluepill
Guest
GG & Boer [Yea, the old I’ve been a Labor person for years but,….. routine seems to be alive and well with Bluepill.] er, no. Testament to the pseudo-religion that party politics is for you boys (hey, whatever floats your boat!) is that you use the “lapsed laborite” language, much like “lapsed catholic”. No. No memberships, not been to a single branch meeting of any party, ever. I am not a member of a party. I know here that is akin to being on an AFL forum and not barracking for a team but commenting on the game of AFL..… Read more »
bluepill
Guest
Poroti @1849 Ha, Ha.. it would have been naive of me to not consider the moniker carefully! Actually the inspiration was the matrix (I think the source of the dichotomy) but I also chose it ironically, since those around me were acting more like they were prepared to settle for the fantasy of party groupthink but align themselves with the old red of socialism/labor movements. Someone also suggested a reference to another ‘blue pill’ which they found appropriate since “I was a dick”. I actually did laugh out loud with that.. it was a genuinely good joke. One other person… Read more »
bluepill
Guest

Bore=war

[You poor thing. Go ahead, do your worst. Vote for Abbott.]

Right on cue my fellow coffee table! Parroted a party line to perfection. Very proud of you (and Jules would be too!)
🙂

canasta76
Guest

BH
If you go to the Meet the Press site scroll down the bottom to the area of small blue writing in the middle column you will find Meet the Press name you click on that it takes you to another page with a picture of the female host,under this you find a largish blue box which has meet the press on it,click on that box and on the left hand side you will find the feed for Mr Shortens interview hope this helps BH.

dave
Guest

bluepill@1829


[ As I have been studying the furniture of PB longterm I have noticed that commenters tend to follow predictable and increasingly narrow patterns of argument, often reduced to a line, phrase or even just a label.

This is pretty common ]

I have been studying bluepill dating back years and have noticed that he tend to follow predictable and increasingly narrow patterns of argument, often reduced to a line, phrase or even just a label.

This is pretty common…

The claims you attempt to make, work pretty well aimed back at you.

mari
Guest

[Scarpat
Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 12:38 pm | PERMALINK
“You know Abbott has lunch at News Corp every week, don’t you?”

Has this been put out on twitter to see if any person in the know (journalists) responds or whether it has been/will be met with deathly silence?]

See my comment 1896m from Paul B a very decent journo

bemused
Guest
zoomster@1994 bemused They used to be much more open and welcoming. Funny what death threats will do! When I first worked in the Benalla electorate office, it was very open and welcoming. A few death threats (which were drunken pranks) and we had security alarms all over the place. Nothing to do with any demands from us, but that’s the way the Parliamentary services react to any threats (they’re the official owners of the property, after all, not the MPs, who are merely tenants). I think it is unfortunate and the security has just gone right over the top. Surely… Read more »
zoidlord
Guest

@Bh/2003

I’m not concerned at this point, reviewing the few years with polls being up and down.

Senator Conroy now on the attack run.

http://www.zdnet.com/au/we-had-the-same-debate-france-approves-nbn-blueprint-7000012057/

Conroy said that if the Coalition tries to “tear up the contracts” that NBN Co is signing, it would be engaging in sovereign risk. He questioned why Turnbull would want to stop NBN Co from signing new contracts if the Coalition is committed to completing the NBN project.

BH
Guest

canasta76 No worries. Will try again. They’ve changed the site around since Paul B left MTP.

guytaur
Guest

“@justinbarbour: RT @TheTweetOfGod: “The Bible” running on the History Channel is like “Dragons” running on Animal Planet.”

imacca
Guest

well, so far on my query to Abbotts office about his meetings with News Ltd, i have gotten the automated reply about how he gets so many emails and doesn’t have anything like the resources of the Govt to answer them all.

Will await any further correspondence, but not holding my breath.

Still, although the OM are silent so far, the story does seem to be starting to get out there.

Hmmm… email Laurie Oakes i’m thinking….. 🙂

canasta76
Guest

BH,
Sorry for not providing a link but I don’t know how to but if you find some way of getting said program you may like to pass it around yourself as my computer skills are limited but learning bit by bit.Sorry againm

BH
Guest

[The media is obviously working to an agenda, so let’s work around that, and get the message out in other ways.

As I’ve said before, win, lose or draw, you can at least sit down on the night of September 14 and know that you did everything you possibly could to get the result you want.]

Zoomster – way to go. I’ll be ecstatic if Labor win but, if we have no chance, I want to go down fighting til 6pm on 14/9.

bemused
Guest

victoria@1998


Bemused

You are the master of idiocy. You are forever prattling on about something, but it never appears to be detrimental to the fibs. Enough said. Im bored

Don’t bother me with confessions of your lack of intellect. I’m not interested.

confessions
Guest

lizzie:

I wonder what he means by “reported to Abbott’s office.”

BlindFreddy
Guest

Confessons

Here is your 1776 in full:

“No, it was at the end of her press conference. She told the journo to get a better microphone. He protested so she told him to take the matter up with Lachlan and then went to the last question.”

And this is a question!!!!!

I’ll let lurkers decide for themselves.

As to your “stop hyperventilating” paltry defence of your misleading statement, have a look at PB Feb2, 12.06am.

Some real hyperventilater wrote about Evans and some unknown lady minister resigning (turned out to be Ms Roxon) “Labor is imploding”.

Sound familiar?

Here endeth the sermon.

Kevin Bonham
Guest

Essential, Morgan, Newspoll and Nielsen from the last two weeks are all 55 or 56 when adjusted for house effects.

My increasingly formalised (but not quite there yet) aggregator now gives 55.3. Would be hard to defend any figure that wasn’t 55-point-something.

victoria
Guest

Bemused

You are the master of idiocy. You are forever prattling on about something, but it never appears to be detrimental to the fibs. Enough said. Im bored

guytaur
Guest
MTBW Well the people I was talking about are the people who have moved in since the ones you are talking about. My suggestion is do not believe the polls or at least the reporting of them by the media. They have not changed dramatically. As was shown on the poll of polls segment on Insiders Governments have won from there before. Do not despair. Labor is performing well eventually that will cut through no matter how much old media tries to make out otherwise. Also remember I am not a rusted on Labor person. So it is not a… Read more »
bemused
Guest
lizzie@1981 MTBW I am guessing that the demographic shifts in your area are causing changes which give you heartache. I find it difficult that every time Labor squeaks it in, in my area, the boundaries are changed and the fight is on again. I know MTBWs area of Sydney as it is where my brother and his family live and where my parents lived until their deaths. It used to be very working class and my parents built their home in a War Service housing estate back in the early 60s. Now almost all of those who lived there are… Read more »
lizzie
Guest

[Miglo ‏@MigloMT
Well what do you know? I’ve been reported to Abbott’s office for running this story. http://wp.me/pOosp-3mH via @wordpressdotcom ]

zoomster
Guest

bemused

[They used to be much more open and welcoming.]

Funny what death threats will do!

When I first worked in the Benalla electorate office, it was very open and welcoming.

A few death threats (which were drunken pranks) and we had security alarms all over the place.

Nothing to do with any demands from us, but that’s the way the Parliamentary services react to any threats (they’re the official owners of the property, after all, not the MPs, who are merely tenants).

Rossmore
Guest

3AW may have the Baillieu presser live …. streamed live here …

http://www.3aw.com.au/

BH
Guest

Canasta76 Could you provide me with the link to Meet the Press please.

I went to the site but couldn’t find it.

confessions
Guest

James Button is being interviewed on ABC24. Very interesting.

MTBW
Guest
guytaur Those are not the changes I am talking about. I do not live in an area where there are large numbers of immigrants. I live near the Georges River. The area was home to hundreds if not thousands of War Vet homes on large blocks. The War Vets are dying now or in Nursing homes and those blocks are being bought by developers who are putting duplexes on them and getting over $600,000 for each one. The whole area is changing and the electorate of Banks via the last redistribution runs right down to Kogarah and Hurstville now. I… Read more »
zoomster
Guest
MTBW We can’t, as individuals, change what’s happening in the wider party. We can’t get them to change leaders (not that I want them to), change the way they’re delivering the message, or whatever our particular beef with them happens to be. So let’s do what we can do. The media is obviously working to an agenda, so let’s work around that, and get the message out in other ways. As I’ve said before, win, lose or draw, you can at least sit down on the night of September 14 and know that you did everything you possibly could to… Read more »
bemused
Guest
victoria@1976 confessions There is a real bona fide scandal within the Liberal Party. What do we hear from those who profess to be Labor party supporterrs? Crickets….. I heard the, carry on about Obeid, but silence on Sinodinos, Santoro and now the Bailleu scandal. As I say, it is often instructive as to what is not said by some. What an idiotic comment! Do you have inside knowledge of those matters? Didn’t think so. Neither do I. I am finding out about them as they are revealed through the despised OM and blogs. There is no point just prattling on… Read more »
guytaur
Guest

@ConversationEDU: A baby in the US has been ‘cured’ of #HIV- see what our experts have to say #health http://t.co/738UMb5jUw

Rossmore
Guest

Nine press releases from the Victorian Gov last Monday. None today.

Pure coincidence?

victoria
Guest

lizzie

You never know, we could be headed back to the polls sooner than later here in Vic

dave
Guest
Bushfire Bill@1788 On pbxmastragics BB said that a Canberra press Gallery person told him in front of witnesses, at last night’s JG speech event, and then repeated the statement when queried as to it’s accuracy. That’s a pretty accurate description. We were standing around and got chatting. Then this person said, wtte, quite casually, “You know Abbott has lunch at News Corp every week, don’t you?” Blogger: “DOES he?” Another blogger: “Is that right?” Senior Press Gallery Person: “Yeah, every week.” Blogger: “Co-ordinating strategies I suppose?” Senior Press Gallery Person: “Of course!” OK – I’m asking this with the benefit… Read more »
Just Me
Guest

1971
Diogenes
[A Labor Minister has dinner every night with the Editor of News Ltd.]

And you wouldn’t believe what they get up to after dinner.

Though maybe not every night.

Bar Bar
Guest

Meher baba: Myself still can’t get over the Libs being led by a mick who sat at the feet of Santa. In my day the Libs were wall to wall freemasons, as Psephos also described recently.

Jokes aside, Abbott is seriously underestimated imo. I knew a number of intellectual groupers back in the old days and they had some of the best brains going around. Great at dinner parties, the arguments went to the wee hours. They were all disaffected Labor, the lot of them.

lizzie
Guest

MTBW

I am guessing that the demographic shifts in your area are causing changes which give you heartache. I find it difficult that every time Labor squeaks it in, in my area, the boundaries are changed and the fight is on again.

guytaur
Guest

Still no mention on News 24 about Spring Street.

confessions
Guest

victoria:

Yes, I’ve noticed the same behaviour in the past. Same as when the polls narrowed. Unless there’s something about the govt or the ALP to whinge about, they have nothing to contribute.

Rossmore
Guest

Baillieu could of course try the well worn, “I had no specific knowledge” line. He wouldn’t, would he?

bemused
Guest
BH@1963 Labor should set up some booths in Western Sydney locations where constituents are asked to bring along their power bills and tax returns to have them explained and to ask questions. They may not like the answers. BK – top idea. A few staffers with volunteer help would do the job just fine. Some people just don’t like going into pollies’ electoral offices so a booth in a shopping centre or similar could be the go. These days all the MPs offices I know of are intimidating places with a counter like in a bank with security glass and… Read more »
victoria
Guest

confessions

There is a real bona fide scandal within the Liberal Party. What do we hear from those who profess to be Labor party supporterrs? Crickets….. I heard the, carry on about Obeid, but silence on Sinodinos, Santoro and now the Bailleu scandal. As I say, it is often instructive as to what is not said by some.

zoidlord
Guest

And you guys think Labor is bad:

http://afr.com/p/national/baillieu_government_rocked_by_secret_Ssvb1fir609zRaEfyPmNeL

“The state director of the Victorian Liberal Party offered a former government staffer money to “disappear” for a few days following the release of a damaging Office of Police Integrity report”

It’s almost like something that Kidnappers do.

confessions
Guest

davidwh:

It’s a small minority of people who comment here just to bait others and get a rise out of them.

Scrolling and ignoring the baiting is the only way I’m afraid.

Just Me
Guest

1822
meher baba

Too legalistic. This is political campaigning we are talking about, not forensic legal dissection.

Diogenes
Guest

A Labor Minister has dinner every night with the Editor of News Ltd. 😥

BH
Guest

[Has anyone got a copy of Baillieu’s ministerial code of conduct??]

What?!! You mean he actually had one?

He’s fallen far short of his promises before the election.

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