Facebook Google Menu Linkedin lock Pinterest Search Twitter

Advertisement

BludgerTrack: 55.4-44.6 to Coalition

Nielsen captured headlines by showing the Labor primary vote slipping below 30%, but this week's poll aggregate shows a continuation of Labor's slight improving trend.

Share

The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, who appear to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated with results from Galaxy, Morgan and Essential (there was also last night’s ReachTEL poll for Channel Seven, but I haven’t included this as I don’t yet have enough data for ReachTEL to determine bias and accuracy weightings). Nielsen’s breakdowns have also allowed for the state relativities to be revised.

Speaking of which, I thought it might be illuminating to plot how the mainland states have been tracking relative to the national polling since the 2010 election. The following charts do so with reference to Labor’s two-party vote. Keep in mind that this measures the states’ deviance from the national result, and not simply the level of Labor support – so a flat line tells us not that support for Labor in that state has been steady, but that the ups and downs have closely matched the national results (as they usually do).

The most obvious point to emerge is that Queensland is the odd man out on account of its volatile trendline. This relates to the “smooth” function displayed at the top left of each chart, reflecting the smoothness of the line which most meaningfully represents the scattered data points (in the estimation of my stats program, going off something called the AICc criterion). Where the trend is either consistent or non-existent, as it is for the other four states, the smoothing parameter is high and the line fairly straight. But where there is a distinct pattern to the variation, as in the case of Queensland, the number lowers to produce a line variable enough to follow the trend (different smoothing parameters also explain why the Coalition’s primary vote trendline on BludgerTrack is smoother than Labor’s).

The Queensland exception is down to a fairly clear 3% sag for Labor from March to July 2012, which happens to be coincide with the immediate aftermath of their devastating state election defeat. This seems to suggest that temporary static from Queensland state politics added over half a point to the Coalition blowout in the national result at this time, which can be clearly observed on BludgerTrack. It should be noted that this week’s Nielsen result is the only data point for Queensland since last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and it’s solidly lower than anything recorded since November. BludgerTrack will need more than one 350-sample result before it draws any conclusions, but the Nielsen result may point to a downturn the Queensland trendline is yet to catch up with.

Something similar may also be happening in South Australia, where Labor’s downward turn since late last year would be much sharper with a lower smoothing parameter. If forthcoming results for this state remain poor for Labor, their already weak projection will deteriorate fairly rapidly.

Other news:

• Barnaby Joyce had a clear 150-10 win over local IT businessman David Gregory in the Nationals preselection for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England, conducted after the withdrawal of Richard Torbay. The LNP will now have to choose a (presumably Nationals-aligned) candidate to fill Joyce’s casual Senate vacancy when he resigns to the contest the election, with the winner to serve out the remainder of a Senate term that will end in mid-2017.

• WA Labor has determined the order of its Senate election ticket, the top two positions going to Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Assocation state president Joe Bullock and incumbent Louise Pratt, in that order. Bullock takes the seat designated for the SDA from the man he succeeded as the union’s state secretary, Mark Bishop, who bowed out of the race on Monday in recognition that he faced certain defeat. Bullock’s success in securing the top position was the contentious fruit of an arrangement between the Right faction SDA and the largest Left union, United Voice, which secured the state lower house seat of Fremantle for United Voice faction member Simone McGurk at the expense of Adrian Evans of the insurgent Maritime Union of Australia. Pratt’s demotion from top of the ticket in 2007 is more than symbolic, as there are fears Labor’s vote in WA is so weak it can’t be guaranteed a second seat. Former state upper house MP Jon Ford, who is associated with the United Voice’s main Left rival, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, complained that the SDA-United Voice deal very nearly led to Pratt being excluded altogether.

• Also determined by the Labor state executive was the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Evans, which will stay in the United Voice fold by going to Sue Lines, a WA-raised but Sydney-based official with the union.

• Labor’s state executive also chose candidates for four lower house seats, three of which would be winnable under normal circumstances. Hasluck will be contested the aforementioned Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850. There will be more on Hasluck in Friday’s Seat of the Week. The other candidates are lawyer Tristan Cockman in Cowan, Victoria Park deputy mayor John Bissett in Swan and, in the safely conservative regional seat of Durack, Fitzroy Crossing musician and party activist Daron Keogh.

• The Liberals have a new candidate for the Melbourne hinterland seat of McEwen after their initial nominee, Ben Collier, withdrew due to “unforeseen family circumstances”. The party’s administrative committee unanimously chose as his successor Donna Petrovich, a member of the state upper house for Northern Victoria region and former mayor of Macedon Ranges. Sue Hewitt of the Northern Weekly was able to confirm that ReachTEL had earlier conducted a poll of the electorate on behalf of an undisclosed client gauging name recognition for Collier and Petrovich. Petrovich will relinquish her seat in the upper house on June 30.

• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Liberal internal polling has them leading 56-44 in the Labor-held Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, with the primary votes at 29% for Labor’s Anna Burke and 48% for the Liberal candidate in Chisholm, and 32% for Alan Griffin against 48% for the Liberals in Bruce.

• Former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad has won preselection to replace retiring Nationals member John Forrest in Mallee. The other candidates were Swan Hill councillor Michael Adamson, Buloke mayor Reid Mather, Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie and Mildura resident Anne Webster. Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank was a late withdrawal. The Liberals are yet to determine whether they will field a candidate.

Advertisement

We recommend

From around the web

Powered by Taboola

1788 comments

1,788 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 55.4-44.6 to Coalition

  1. castle

    [Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850.]

    Thats a pretty effective recruitment drive.

  2. castle

    [is all you’ll ever get when terrorism against the West is involved.]

    and the anderrs of the boltic award goes to mick77

  3. Fran Barlow

    Speaking as a Green, I am happy to make clear, well before we have any basis for concluding on the provenance of the Boston bombing, that this was an indefensible criminal act.

    I really do hope that the person or persons responsible are swiftly identified and apprehended by the lawful authorities, that due process efficiently and effectively follows.

    I know of no Green who would feel the slightest solidarity with those responsible for such acts. We are inter alia a party that is passionate about civil rights and authentic community — and such criminal conduct is utterly at odds with these values.

    We Greens never celebrate human suffering. We solidarise with humans who are caused to suffer. When Christine Milne said our thoughts were with the victims of the bombing, that is what she meant.

  4. Fran Barlow

    How many Climate Change Delusionals are there? Grahame Readfern summarises.

    [The Lowy Institute annually polls opinions about climate change. The number of people saying Australia shouldn’t act “until we are sure that global warming is a problem” rose from seven per cent in 2006 to 18 per cent in 2012.]

    So 82% agree the problem is real and serious enough to act now.

    I always find this interesting though:

    [A US study earlier this year found that, not surprisingly, members of the public and the media tend to be more sceptical about global warming if you ask them during a cold snap. Another US study last year found that asking people about global warming during a hot spell could increase the number of “believers” by almost six percentage points. One study has even found that people were more likely to accept the science on global warming if they were sitting close to dead plants.]

    Hmmm

  5. Socrates

    Who says lawyers never do any good for society? Odd that this only appears now though.
    [A lawsuit by One Nation Party co-founder David Ettridge against federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will head to court next month.
    Mr Ettridge is suing federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott for damages of more than $1.5 million.
    He has accused Mr Abbott of acting unlawfully in 1998 by assisting and encouraging litigation against One Nation in the Queensland courts.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/one-nation-cofounder-suing-tony-abbott-20130416-2hytq.html#ixzz2Qf683YUR

  6. Fran Barlow

    Ah yes … the smell of “freedom” continues in the US … this from Oregon:

    [Joseph Wolters, an off-duty security guard, accidentally shot and killed his girlfriend’s 9-year-old daughter while practicing drawing his weapon in Oregon City, Oregon, on Sunday

    {…}

    Wolters was getting ready for his job by holstering and un-holstering a loaded gun, when he accidentally fired his gun, shooting a bullet through a house wall and into the face of 9-year-old Shayla Shonneker, who was playing outside.

    Shonneker was airlifted to the Oregon Health & Science University Hospital, where she was later pronounced dead.

    Wolters is currently a member of the U.S. Military Reserve and was awarded medals while serving in Iraq, reports KPTV-TV.]

    Meanwhile, in partially related news, there have been 3474 gun deaths from homicides (i.e exclusive of suicides) in the US between the Sandy Hook massacre on December 14 2012 and April 15 2013 (US time). Simple maths tells us that this exceeds 28 per day on average — or more than a new “Sandy Hook” every day.

    The last mile of the Boston Marathon was dedicated to the victims of Sandy Hook, and yesterday’s atrocity serves to remind us of just how far humanity remains from achieving a world in which every human values the rights of others as dearly as they value their own.

  7. Socrates

    Fran

    Thanks for the piece on delusionism. Economists are similar in their thinking. Amazing how their support for free markets is always strongest during a boom, then miraculously disappears with a demand for government action when the bust happens. Emotion trumps analysis for most people.

    Have you ever read Peter Singer’s book One World? Very good way of looking at CC.

  8. Steve777

    Ettridge vs Abbott – two very unlovely combatants. A bit like an NRL clash between Manly and Melbourne Storm – you don’t want either side to win.

  9. Socrates

    Steve, but you aren’t too upset if both get injured. Pass the popcorn.

  10. meher baba

    Further to the discussion at the end of the last thread on the meaning of the word “terrorism” and whether or not Bob Carr had jumped the gun by calling the Boston bombings “terrorism”.

    Overnight, Obama has said that any bombing attack on innocent civilians is “an act of terrorism”.

    Presumably this applies even if the perpetrator is a lunatic.

    So, under this definition, the Unabomber was a “terrorist”, but the perpetrator of the Sandy Hook massacre was not.

    Not terribly consistent, it seems to me. But there it is.

  11. mari

    I am in a state of shock had the Etteridge/Abbott stoush on ABC 7am news mind you after Pauline Hanson “thinking” of running against Joel F in Hunter!!!

  12. mari

    I am in a state of shock had the Etteridge/Abbott stoush on ABC 7am news mind you after Pauline Hanson “thinking” of running against Joel F in Hunter!!!

  13. Fran Barlow

    meher baba:

    [So, under this definition, the Unabomber was a “terrorist”, but the perpetrator of the Sandy Hook massacre was not. ]

    It seems to me that that the violence has to be linked to some political or cultural goal if one is to characterise it as “terrorism”. I’m not aware that there was any political or cultural goal at Sandy Hook. Whether the killer there fits the definition of “lunatic” there is a moot point, IMO.

    By contrast, Anders Behring Breivik clearly did have a political/cultural goal in carrying out his mass murder — and easily meets the standard “terrorist” whatever one makes of his mental state.

  14. castle

    [Sitting down to see the Rodent being interviewed in London was a bit of a sickening start to the day.]

    Still dog whistling too, saying how it could happen here but he stopped it with those wonderful fridge magnets. Expect to see morriscum recycling rodents whistle that there could be terrorists on the boats and an update on the lib ad that links asylum seekers and crime in western Sydney.

  15. PoK

    Macquarie Radio News running the story that ” the HSU has Secretly doubled the limit on credit cards issued to staff” I would assume that the reason is that secret research showed that the previous limit wasn’t f…ng high enough.

  16. Socrates

    Surely terrorism can be aimed at a military goal too?

    Terrorism seems to me aimed at inflicting terror, i.e. making people who belong to the target group, but were not victims, afraid. Whereas those undertaking mass murder might cause terror, but Seems to be aiming to kill their victims, and not caring about other effects. Whatis the point of terror? Presumably dissuading your target group from opposing you. So terrorists always seek maximum publicity, whereas murderers may not. Our western media faithfully obliges them, publicising every gory detail in a quest fr ratings.

  17. Socrates

    Have a pleasant day all.

  18. meher baba

    Fran@15. I agree with you, but that’s not what BO said.

    But he probably knows more about the likely identity of the bombers than he’s letting on.

  19. zoomster

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/kill-poor-to-fix-budget-writes-lobbyist-with-liberal-links-20130416-2hygv.html

    The author claims this is satire and loosely bases his piece on Jonathan Swift’s famous ‘modest proposal’ but sort of misses the point that JS was highlighting the plight of the Irish.

    To equate with Swift, the author would have had to portray the rich as the underdogs (you can see the problem….) instead of vilifying another group of people all together.

    Regardless, this is a significant clue to his (and one assumes, Menzies House) thinking …

    [”This bold initiative would rid us of indolent students, hapless single mums, lower-order drug dealers, social workers, performance artists, Greenpeace supporters and the remaining processing personnel in our collapsing yet heavily subsidised manufacturing industries.”]

    Ah. So single mothers, artists, students, manufacturing workers are the same as drug dealers.

    Oh sorry, correction – poor drug dealers. I’m assuming that successful drug dealers are OK by this guy…

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/kill-poor-to-fix-budget-writes-lobbyist-with-liberal-links-20130416-2hygv.html#ixzz2QfPbymyv

  20. confessions

    ABC24 host just said, in explanation as to why Boston is getting so much coverage whereas Iraq or Syria aren’t, that 1 US death is worth 50-60 deaths in countries like Iraq. I have no doubt that’s how the media justify the saturation coverage of Boston, but it still sounds hollow and callous to hear it asserted in such blase terms.

    That said, if there is anything which could be said to be positive about the media coverage of the Boston bombings, it’s that this has completely removed the sickening Thatcher love in which was dominating the media after her death.

  21. guytaur

    @MrDenmore: Australia’s economy is the envy of the world. So why isn’t Labor a shoe-in? asks US columnist William Pesek http://t.co/aTiXdknEFl

    Good Morning.

    Another example of the disconnect between reality and perception.
    Of course I blame the media for not doing its job with its campaigning for the LNP.

  22. Compact Crank

    Castle @1

    MUA – do you think it’s voluntary?

  23. dave

    [ That said, if there is anything which could be said to be positive about the media coverage of the Boston bombings, it’s that this has completely removed the sickening Thatcher love in which was dominating the media after her death. ]

    Confessions – Don’t believe it – its all about to be ramped up again with the funeral.

  24. confessions

    dave:

    True. I think I will just avoid OM for a few days until things return to normal.

  25. guytaur

    “@Simon_Cullen: Tony Abbott has described the lawsuit filed against him by One Nation co-founder David Ettridge as “just a bit of payback””

  26. triton

    confessions
    [ABC24 host just said, in explanation as to why Boston is getting so much coverage whereas Iraq or Syria aren’t, that 1 US death is worth 50-60 deaths in countries like Iraq.]

    By and large the media provide the coverage that the masses want, and I don’t think there’s any doubt that the masses are far more interested in the Boston bombs than in equivalent events in Iraq or Syria.

  27. Yesiree Bob

    What would be fun to watch is if this case against Abbott gets up, and he is forced into an embarrassing resignation shortly after he becomes PM

  28. dave

    [ By and large the media provide the coverage that the masses want. ]

    Many observations to the contrary.

    The media are chasing their own self interests as usual – they want to improve/ increase ratings.

    Boston is a big story which could be adequately covered without being on almost continuous loop. In fact the media are doing everyone a dis-service by treating it the way they are. As usual.

    The masses were not interested in full on leadershit day in day out for the last 3 years for instance – or abbott in fluo for two and a half years etc.

    Many many in public have requested focus on policy but very rarely get it.

  29. Steve777

    Re media coverage, Boston is getting blanket coverage in our media, unlike the Iraqi bombs or the Iran earthquake, because it happened to people who look like the readers and viewers of that media in a place that looks not too different to a street in one of our cities.

  30. victoria

    [@simon cullen Abbott: “I am absolutely confident that what I did back then was entirely justified and justifiable.”]

  31. guytaur

    dave

    I would add to your list people want more quality serious journalism programmes.

    There is a reason This Day Tonight on the ABC was such a success.
    There was a reason that 60 minutes was a success in the early days.

    In Australia quality journalism rates highly.

  32. Mick77

    Fran 4
    [I know of no Green who would feel the slightest solidarity with those responsible for such acts.]
    Lee Rhiannon for starters, provided the perpetrators are her folk, communists, jihadists, and she “identifies with their just cause”
    [When Christine Milne said our thoughts were with the victims of the bombing, that is what she meant.]
    Yes but unlike you and every respectable political leader, she was careful and deliberate not to mention catching and punishing the perpetrators. Green-speak it’s called, eg “we deplore all violence” when 20 Israelis have just been murdered.

  33. confessions

    triton:

    I have to agree with dave. I’d also throw into the mix the low trust ratings journalists have.

  34. guytaur

    Mick

    Your postings on people and connecting them with Israel are as one with the views that continue to cause more and more violence.

    Your zealotry is doing wonders for the Palestinian cause.

    The there is no fault from Israel and anyone saying it might be nice to be civilised for a change is a terror supporter really does you no credit.

  35. dave

    [ I would add to your list people want more quality serious journalism programmes. ]

    This is supported by The Guardian commencing operations in Australia soon.

    I think people will pay for quality media.

  36. Steve777

    Back around the turn of the century One Nation was a bit of a loose cannon for the Coalition. Pauline Hanson’s party was taking votes mainly from the Coalition and she was threatening to preference against sitting members in seats in which One Nation ran, the majority of whom at the time were Coalition members. That would have meant that maybe half or more of One Nation’s votes being funnelled through preferences to the ALP. So it was the Coalition who particularly wanted to nobble One Nation, even while they were adjusting their rhetoric and their policies to accommodate Coalition voters who had crossed over or were thinking of doing so.

    It will be interesting to see what comes out of this action against Tony Abbott.

  37. Mick77

    Fran
    You know what – just to put my money where my mouth is. With William as witness there’s $100 for the Salvos if you can get Lee Rhiannon to make, or put on record this week, a statement on her website or in the media that she condemns the Boston terrorism/nassacre/heinous crime or however she wishes to describe it, and hopes that the perpetrators are brought to justice, or wtte; without mention of trying to understand the cause/grievances of those responsible.
    Good luck.

  38. guytaur

    Abbotts presser now on 24”He is in Lycra

  39. jeffemu

    Piss N Moans on now

    I think he is getting the Space Shuttle Crew together..

    they are in their space uniforms I think

  40. Yesiree Bob

    Tony Abbott is wearing a cycling jersey that is sponsored by the Mormans.
    The future for Australia ?

  41. briefly

    mick77….exactly right

  42. Socrates

    In my experience a lot of right wingers are not above doctoring statistics to suit their arguments. One of the biggest policy arguments in the OECD recently has been about the need for austerity to generate growth. It turns out the claims made in favour of it are … false.

    http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems

    This link is about a paper that’s been widely cited, (Reinhardt Rogoff) supposedly showing that higher debt-to-GDP ratios lead to less economic growth (so used to justify ‘austerity’ policies). Anyway, when some people got hold of the researchers’ data they found that there were, umm, problems…

    They just left out the years where the data disproved their claim. That and a few basic maths errors.

  43. Yesiree Bob

    OOOhhh Ahhhhh, Tony is staying in a Caravan Park.
    Well, he does appeal to the Trailer Trash

  44. jeffemu

    So if Tone is staying in a Caravan Park or three will he still claim his overnight travelling allowance like he did last time.

    How much did he claim for his last peddle?

  45. lizzie

    Abbott vs Etteridge

    In a moment of clarity this morning (and with no solid evidence)I realised that this case is going to bolster Abbot’s sympathy vote.

    “That poor man, first he has to put up with nasty Julia, and now a payback attack from the Hanson mob.”

  46. Yesiree Bob

    lizzie@47


    Abbott vs Etteridge

    In a moment of clarity this morning (and with no solid evidence)I realised that this case is going to bolster Abbot’s sympathy vote.

    “That poor man, first he has to put up with nasty Julia, and now a payback attack from the Hanson mob.”

    But aren’t those people the very same people that supported Hanson in the first place ?

  47. guytaur

    Abbott still only doing questions on polly peddle.

    How long after general questions start before he runs

Advertisement

https://www.crikey.com.au/2013/04/17/bludgertrack-55-4-44-6-to-coalition-2/ == https://www.crikey.com.au/free-trial/==https://www.crikey.com.au/subscribe/

Show popup

Telling you what the others don't. FREE for 21 days.