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Federal Election 2013

Apr 20, 2013

Seat of the week: Hasluck

Held for the Liberals by the first ever indigenous member of the House of Representatives, this ultra-marginal eastern Perth seat has changed hands at every election since its creation in 2001. Labor desperately needs for it to do so again on September 14.

UPDATE (22/4/13): The weekly Essential Research records no change on last week on voting intention, with the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred from primary vote of 34% for Labor, 48% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. The poll also finds 51% thinking Australia made the wrong decision going to war against Iraq against 23% for the right decision; support for same sex marriage at 54% and opposition at 33%; and 68% supporting the Gonski report recommendations against 13% opposed, but 43% opposed to the government’s specific plan against 40% in support.

UPDATE 2 (22/4/13): The Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 44% (their weakest result since this series began eight weeks ago) and the Greens steady on 10.5%. That pans out to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 55.5-44.5), which Morgan prefers, and 54-46 on previous election preferences (down from 56-44), which I and every other pollster prefer. The sample this time around was 3270.

The eastern Perth seat of Hasluck has changed hands at all three elections since its creation as Western Australia’s fifteenth seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. Labor has outperformed the state swing in Hasluck at each election, but has twice been denied by the force of the statewide tide to the Coalition. The electorate consists of three discrete population areas, with those in the north and south favouring Labor and the one in the centre leaning to the Liberals. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of seniors, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. In the south are the suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington, which are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Hasluck is held for the Liberals by Ken Wyatt, whose win in 2010 made him the first ever self-identifying indigenous member of the House of Representatives. Wyatt was formerly a director of the Office of Aboriginal Health director and is the uncle of Ben Wyatt, an emerging figure in the state Labor Party. His win came at the expense of Labor’s Sharryn Jackson, who had won the seat in 2001, lost it in 2004 and recovered it again in 2007. Jackson became the seat’s inaugural member after defending a notional margin of 2.6% against a Liberal swing of 0.6%, before a further swing of 3.6% evicted her as Perth failed to take a shine to Mark Latham in 2004. The seat was then held for the Liberals by Stuart Henry, former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. Jackson served as Labor’s state president in the interim, and was reportedly urged by the LHMWU to seize the opportunity of Kim Beazley’s vacancy in Brand at the 2007 election. She instead declared herself set on recovering Hasluck, and was duly successful on the back of a 3.1% swing driven by a recovery of support for Labor in the electorate’s south following a slump in 2004. Redistribution cut Jackson’s 1.3% margin to 0.9% going into the 2010 election, and she was then seen off by an evenly distributed 1.4% swing in 2010

Labor’s new candidate for Hasluck is Adrian Evans, deputy state secretary of the Maritime Union of Australia. Evans’ preselection is the product of an increasing assertiveness within the state ALP on the part of the MUA, which according to one report accounts for a quarter of the state branch’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled its numbers from 150 to 850. The union first sought to flex its muscles when Evans ran for preselection for the state seat of Fremantle, which prior to the 2009 by-election defeat was held by LHMWU figurehead Jim McGinty. The LHMWU faction was able to secure preselection for its favoured candidate, UnionsWA secretary Simone McGurk, but it took a deal with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association to shore up her position in the face of the challenge from Evans. The quid pro quo included support from United Voice (as the LHMWU had become known) for the Senate ambitions of SDA state president Joe Bullock, who has duly gained top position on the Senate ticket at the expense of incumbent Louise Pratt. This has in turn caused friction between United Voice and Pratt’s AMWU sub-faction of the Left, with which the MUA is aligned.

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1831 comments

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Pipe Fitter
Guest

Good morning dawn patrol. Off to work , help build Australia , pay some tax , talk to my union mates , drum up support for PMJG among the non believers.
Life is good.
Don’t you all sit arround argueing all day :-).

deblonay
Guest

Polls show remarkable potential vote for Assenge in Senate poll
______________________________
http://www.theage.com.au/national/polls-positive-for-wikileaks-20130422-2iaqu.html

Gauss
Guest

Well the ALP stuck on 45% 2PP?? Surprised it wasn’t better.

Sean Tisme
Guest

[I’m guessing this is your point but almost all self reliant upstanding liberals like to believe they don’t have their handout WHILE IT IS BEING OVERWHELMED WITH HANDOUTS. It is only the poor that don’t deserve handouts, liberals do deserve them.]

People that don’t pay taxes because they choose not to work/bludge don’t deserve a hand out because they haven’t earned it.

We should go down the U.K system and let people save up time they are allowed on welfare by the amount of weeks they have worked. Those that choose not to work their entire lives then won’t recieve a cent.

Utopia
Guest

Has anyone seen the Approval ratings?

Utopia
Guest

Rosemour or Less:

If everyone left private health insurance do you think that would have no effect on the public hospital system then?

Rosemour or Less
Guest

‘Is the Medicare Levy only paid by ALP voters?’

How many people with ‘private’ health insurance doing there bit to take the pressure off public hospitals use public hospital outpatient services as a first option just in case? You know, save on those out of pockets if you can…but absolutely taking the pressure off. Sure.
Tight chest, numbness…probably nothing. Just pop into the local public emergency for check up…..but then I’ll go back to taking the pressure off. What a crock.

Have as much private anything as you like it’s your choice, your decision, your responsibility. Good luck. Jump the queue. It’s your right.

Mithrandir
Guest

[I wish people would stop calling it ‘private’
It’s mosty susidised so it’s ‘semi-private’

All you self reliant upstanding libs would like to believe you don’t have your hand out…]

Damn straight. Same goes for so called private schools.

rummel
Guest

So now we have had three crap weeks for Abbott, three weeks with policy at the front and three weeks where nothing has changed…. funny that, change Gillard and the polls would go crazy.

deblonay
Guest
Centre
Guest

Plibersek is not good enough to be PM – get real!

Utopia
Guest

[Do Liberal voters use the medicare system?]

Well I hardly ever do, but I imagine others do given how busy the Emergency Departments are (and we all know there aren’t that many ALP voters out there at the moment :devil:)

guytaur
Guest

“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (0) L/NP 55 (0) #auspol”

rummel
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 8s
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (0) L/NP 55 (0) #auspol

sprocket_
Guest

Surely they wouldn’t pull NewsPoll just because it showed a swing back to ALP?

davidwh
Guest

Rosemour personally I pay around $40k tax plus around $2k in Medicare levy so from my perspective the health care rebate isn’t much back out of that. Not sure how much GST on top of that I pay annually. I don’t have a problem with the amount of tax I pay but just get frustrated when governments fail to spend it wisely.

Overall I think Aussies do pretty well out of our tax system and would be comfortable if the government raised more providing it was fairly spread, efficiently spent and spent on programs we need.

This little black duck
Guest
This little black duck

MM,

I fully expected her to offer Peter a swaddling blanket.

confessions
Guest

zoom:

Thoughts with you and your efforts with your mum.

guytaur
Guest

I was amused most at the power of NBN to burn LNP credibility out of the water in yet another policy area.

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