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Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

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2524 comments

2,524 thoughts on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

  1. confessions

    Thanks William.

  2. rummel

    Abbott, future PM

  3. Compact Crank

    rummel – we live in hope.

  4. ruawake

    Vote for Tony and pay Tolls on YOUR roads.

  5. CTar1

    Posted just after WB called ‘new thread’:

    [poroti

    The things that have come and gone are amazing.

    There’s a very nice view from the South Bank to the Tower with no high-rise behind it (I’ve swum that bit – good tide judgement and just enough booze and cost 350 Sterling in fines) and a shot down Whitehall taken from a just a little away from ’70′.

    Delightful.]

  6. blackburnpseph

    The polling flatline continues for another week ….

  7. blackburnpseph

    When is the next Nielsen due?

  8. Compact Crank

    ruawake – Tolls are a very good idea and work well.

    No doubt you support things like the OCngestion Charge in London now being mooted for Australian Cities.

    We need them on the Perth Freeways.

  9. confessions

    Probably after the budget.

  10. poroti

    blackburnpseph

    [
    The polling flatline continues for another week ….]
    Considering the MOE the steady state results seem pretty suss to me.

  11. mikehilliard

    Ctar1@5 – was thinking what one of the people in that film would have made of me watching them on a lap top in 2013.

  12. blackburnpseph

    Poroti

    The margin of error is probably being cancelled out by the flatline. It would probably be more important if the polls were bouncing around.

  13. Meguire Bob

    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, May 13, 2013 at 6:38 pm | PERMALINK
    The polling flatline continues for another week …

    ———–
    Not good news for news ltd/abbott only if these media driven opinion polls were fact , not fantasy

    Abbott new slogan

    STOP THE FANTASY POLLS

  14. WeWantPaul

    [Abbott, future PM]

    If we have to have a fool conservative PM, can we please have Clive, unlike Abbott he has done something with himself.

  15. Sean Tisme

    The Trend is Your Friend.

    Gillards GORN

  16. ruawake

    [ruawake – Tolls are a very good idea and work well.]

    Not for the companies who built the roads. It is being set up as an election issue and will bite in the inner city.

    If Perth has a problem maybe Barnett can use the $2,400 per person royalty he charges to build a road or two?

  17. Compact Crank

    Don’t worry blackburnpseph – I expect a jump in the polls after the Budget tomorrow . .

    for the Coalition.

  18. Meguire Bob

    Sean Tisme

    The election trend Abbott is gone

    93 – hewson revisited

  19. confessions

    poroti:

    On Hadfield’s musical skill:

    Hadfield is currently working on the first original music album to be recorded in orbit during his free time on Expedition 35. He will be recording the album using a Larrivée Parlor guitar, Shure microphones, and Cakewalk for recording.[13] The first song recorded in space, Jewel in the Night, was released via YouTube on Christmas Eve 2012.[14] His collaboration with Ed Robertson of the Barenaked Ladies and the Wexford Gleeks, Is Somebody Singing? (sometimes shortened I.S.S.), was aired on the CBC Radio program Q and released by CBC Music online on 8 February 2013.[15] Hadfield sang Is Somebody Singing along with singers across Canada for the national Music Monday program.[16] Hadfield has been credited musically on his brother Dave Hadfield’s albums.

    On May 12, 2013, after handing over command of the ISS before returning home, he released a music video recorded on the ISS with a modified version of Space Oddity by David Bowie.[17]

    Apparently his sons manage his social media presence. 🙂

  20. Tom the first and best

    Katter getting a worse result would be because he is not Coalition and so does not get much died in the wool Coalition voter approval and he is not supporting the Government so he does not get much died in the wool ALP or Green approval and he has expressed socially conservative views that offend progressives. Katter is the only one whose very ban outweighs their bad. Interestingly Katter has a smaller gap between good and bad in Qld, while Windsor and Oakeshott have the same good rating in NSW as nationally but a higher bad rating.

  21. Meguire Bob

    Election trend is more factual then opinion polls

  22. Compact Crank

    ruawake @16 what do you mean by “Not for the companies who built the roads.”?

  23. confessions

    [If Perth has a problem maybe Barnett can use the $2,400 per person royalty he charges to build a road or two?]

    Tolls will not solve Perth’s freeway congestion. Is this really what our resident reactionary fools are suggesting? 😆

    How hootment.

  24. Meguire Bob

    Election trend

    When there is no viable alternative – the incumbent remains

  25. mikehilliard

    reposted mikehilliard
    Posted Sunday, May 12, 2013 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Why is it that the liberals in general have so little sense of humor?
    ————————————————————
    rummel@2 excluded.

  26. Steve777

    I don’t have a problem with toll roads as such. In Sydney all freeway infrastructure built under the ALP Government were toll roads. My major beef is that the private-public partnerships that built them had contracts that required alternative routes to be strangled and limited the expansion of public transport options that might compete.

  27. Compact Crank

    Meguire Bob – you forgot Tampa and 9/11.

  28. blackburnpseph

    [Election trend is more factual then opinion polls]

    And what is that thought bubble meant to mean?

  29. AussieAchmed

    Our globalised national economy is impacted by factors other than spending and cost saving.

    The GFC and its effects have not stopped effecting the world and will continue to influence the government.

  30. Tom the first and best

    I would also that the high don`t know for the HoR majority question would have included a significant number of voters who did not understand the question but would have an opinion if they did and that opinions in most of the cases would be in favour of a majority.

  31. poroti

    blackburnpseph

    [. It would probably be more important if the polls were bouncing around.]
    Even if nobody was changing their minds the standard deviation of the poll should see it bouncing around.

  32. WeWantPaul

    [If Perth has a problem maybe Barnett can use the $2,400 per person royalty he charges to build a road or two?

    Tolls will not solve Perth’s freeway congestion. Is this really what our resident reactionary fools are suggesting?

    How hootment.]

    Building the public transport they had promised, and running the system they have properly would be a much better start than tolls.

    If we have to have a toll perhaps one for everyone who drives into Cottesloe, perhaps $500.

  33. CTar1

    mike

    There was a bit in there taken on the Northern Embankment at the eastern end where their are no CoL garbage bins to mark the perimeter – I wonder when the City decided to mark their separatnist from Metropolitan London … again.

    Guytaur has some similar video of George Street in the 30’s on the thriving masses.

    (The Geisha gravator is neat).

  34. Compact Crank

    Steve777 – if you are not going to make a Toll Road profitable then why would a business invest? To lose money?

  35. confessions

    [Building the public transport they had promised, and running the system they have properly would be a much better start than tolls. ]

    Bingo.

  36. Sean Tisme

    Meguire Bob back in the early 1990’s Keating was polling above 40% in most polls even before the birthday cake tax bungle.

    How many times has Gillard been above 40% in the last 3 years?

  37. Meguire Bob

    Compact Crank

    Yes -but the 2013 election will be the same as the one in 1993

    Hewson was hailed the pm, because he was leading the opinion polls comfortably

    As Abbott is now

    Election Campaign – the crumble started

  38. AussieAchmed

    If Perth has a problem maybe Barnett can use the $2,400 per person royalty he charges to build a road or two?

    Colon needs the money to pay off the ever increasing deficit this Liberal Premier has created. Shades of what will see under Abbott.

    Defict up from $3billion when he came to office, not around $20 billion…despite record royalites and increasing state taxes etc. Power bills increased over 60% during his tenure

  39. ruawake

    [ruawake @16 what do you mean by “Not for the companies who built the roads.”?]

    Have you not heard about how the companies who formed PPPs in Victoria and Qld have all gone bust due to underestimating traffic flows and Govt refusal to increase tolls.

    Toll roads stink to those who have to use them and it seems the Libs will fight a pro-toll election “strategy”.

    Hip pocket.

  40. Meguire Bob

    blackburnpseph
    Posted Monday, May 13, 2013 at 6:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Election trend is more factual then opinion polls

    And what is that thought bubble meant to mean?

    ——————————-

    Opinion polls do not win elections

    Being the alternative does – which is out of Abbott’s league

    the incumbent remains as we seen in federal and state elections

  41. Compact Crank

    AussieAchmed – the reason the power bills went up that much was that the ALP froze them for 11 years. The ALP are the ones who set up the fiscal IED on WA Power prices.

  42. Sean Tisme

    [Compact Crank

    Yes -but the 2013 election will be the same as the one in 1993

    Hewson was hailed the pm, because he was leading the opinion polls comfortably]

    Keating was polling above 40% Primary vote for most of his term according to newspoll.

    This is nothing like the position Gillard is in, she can’t win unless she gets over 38% Primary and she hasn’t achieved a single poll at that number since election day.

  43. Meguire Bob

    Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, May 13, 2013 at 6:54 pm | PERMALINK

    How many times has Gillard been above 40% in the last 3 years?

    ————————

    If Gillard and Abbott were treated equally in the media

    Gillard would be the one left standing

  44. Compact Crank

    ruawake – companies go broke all the time for lots of different reasons.

    TransUrban seems to be doing very nicely thank you very much and there are plenty more examples of succesfull Toll Road Operators and PPP particpants.

  45. blackburnpseph

    MB

    This far out from the 1993 election – Labor were actually leading – went backwards again in early 1993 – and then won the election.

  46. WeWantPaul

    [AussieAchmed – the reason the power bills went up that much was that the ALP froze them for 11 years. The ALP are the ones who set up the fiscal IED on WA Power prices.]

    Absolutely untrue and incorrect.

  47. Meguire Bob

    Sean tisme

    The opinion polls are not factual

  48. Meguire Bob

    blackburnpseph

    Yes but Hewson is known as losing the unlosable election

    It takes one Gaffe to happen around , when the leaders and their party do not want it to happen

    Abbott can not contain himself he makes gaffes every single day, if he is exposed in the campaign a month from the election

    Abbott will join Hewson in history

  49. Compact Crank

    WeWantPaul @46

    Expand? How was it untrue and incorrect?

  50. Compact Crank

    BELIEVE, BOB, BELIEVE!

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