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Tasmanian Politics

May 20, 2013

EMRS: Labor 28, Liberal 54, Greens 14 in Tasmania

EMRS has the Tasmanian Liberals with a thumping albeit slightly diminished lead, and shows a substantial drop in support for the Greens.

The quarterly EMRS poll of Tasmanian state voting intention has Labor on 28%, up five on a disastrous result from February, with the Liberals down a point to 54%. The poll also shows the Greens down four to 14%, which is well below anything I recall seeing for the Greens from this series in the past. Liberal leader Will Hodgman’s lead over Premier Lara Giddings is little changed, at 46-25 compared with 46-24 in February.

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Kevin Bonham

Updated my article (URL same as #3) with a fair few more comments, mostly waffly ones.

Kevin Bonham

It appears this is the worst Greens result in EMRS since August 2001 in which they polled 7 raw (9 with undecided redistributed).

They polled 14 with undecided redistributed, as per the current poll, in Dec 2001 and May 2002 but in both cases off higher raw votes than the current nine.

They’ve got biiiiiiig problems!

Kevin Bonham

Worst Green result in a very long time; their EMRS baseline (before pushing the undecideds) is nine. Would have to go back to late 90s to get a reading that bad I think.


Labor voters have NOTHING in common with Liberals.

You dreaming!.


It seem to me that the Green vote is collapsing everywhere in Australia, and the majority of their votes had gone to the Liberals/Nationals or gone to the ALP, and a ssimilar amount of ALP had gone to the Liberals/Nationals

On a side note, if the federal Green vote is less thsn 14% in tasmania and the ALP does choose not to preference the Green in the federal election. The Greens might not return a single senator. The Greens are reliant on the ALP at the next election