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Seat of the week: Denison

Andrew Wilkie provided the biggest surprise of election night 2010 in nabbing the Hobart seat of Denison with scarcely more than a fifth of the primary vote. The contest looks no less complicated this time around.

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Covering the greater part of Hobart, Denison produced one of the most significant results of the 2010 election, sending one of five cross-bench members to the first hung parliament since World War II. Andrew Wilkie achieved his win with just 21.2% of the primary vote, giving him a crucial lead over the Greens who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count with a 1.2% lead over Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr.

Like all of the state’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation at all times set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state. It encompasses the western shore of Hobart’s Derwent River and hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore suburbs and the southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by the seat of Franklin. It is one of the strongest electorates in the country for the Greens, who managed to increase their vote slightly from 18.6% to 19.0% despite the formidable competition offered by Wilkie. Booth results show a clear north-south divide in the electorate, with Greens support concentrated around the town centre and its immediate surrounds in the south and Labor continuing to hold sway in the working class northern suburbs.

Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the 1917 split cost them the seat with incumbent William Laird Smith joining Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. The seat was fiercely contested over subsequent decades, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975. The 1983 election saw Tasmania buck the national trend, the Franklin dam issue helping the Liberals return their full complement of five sitting members with increased majorities. Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated by Labor’s Duncan Kerr in 1987, later to return for a long stretch in state parliament (he is the father of Will Hodgman, the state’s Liberal Opposition Leader). The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure in the job, giving him consistent double-digit margins after 1993 (substantially assisted by Greens preferences).

Kerr bowed out in 2010 after a career that included a four-week stint as Attorney-General after the 1993 election when it appeared uncertain that incumbent Michael Lavarch had retained his seat, and a rather longer spell as Keating government Justice Minister. The ensuing Labor preselection kept the seat in the Left faction fold with the endorsement of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson. What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, a former Office of National Assessments officer who came to national attention in 2003 when he resigned in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent in Denison at the 2010 election, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.

Placed in the centre of the maelstrom by his surprise win at the 2010 election, Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority. The Liberals took this seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions his approach to the Liberals had been less than sincere. Wilkie’s deal with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. This met fierce resistance from the powerful clubs industry, and the government retreated from it after Peter Slipper’s move to the Speaker’s chair appeared to free it from dependence on Wilkie’s vote. Wilkie withdraw his formal support for the government in response, but it has never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.

Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Jane Austin, a policy officer with Tasmania’s Mental Health Services, who emerged as the preferred candidate of the still dominant Left. The Greens candidate is Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne. The Liberals are yet to choose a candidate, prompting Labor to claim the party proposes to play dead in order to boost Wilkie. A ReachTEL poll of 644 respondents in mid-2012 had Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote to 28% for the Liberals, 17% for Labor and 14% for the Greens.

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816 comments

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Suzanne Blake
Guest

Hope he wins it again, he is the best of the Independants, by a wide margin

triton
Guest

Okay, I’m the only one here.

triton
Guest

Cheeseman must be back in the PM’s good books, or at least out of the bad books.

mari
Guest
BK
Guest

Good morning Socrates
Yes, a very interesting article from Andrew McCloud. It really shows that there is an underground political dichotomy. I don’t like it.

mari
Guest

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/insideguardian/2013/may/26/welcome-to-guardian-australia?CMP=twt_gu
Just posting this and I see OzPolTragic beat me to it, so pleased to see you posting on PB again Oz, Take care

lizzie
Guest

OzPolT

Lovely to hear from you.

OzPol Tragic
Guest

Good morning, Bludgers
My computer is almost as stuffed as my eyesight, but I couldn’t resist posting THIS!!!!

The Guardian: Australian Edition.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/australia

I’m off to ENJOY Hurrah! Hurrah! Hurrah!

Socrates
Guest

Another story worth reading, on the companies not being good corporate citizens.
[Almost two-thirds of Australia’s top 100 companies listed on the stock exchange have subsidiaries in tax havens or low-tax jurisdictions, a new report shows.
Thirteen of the top 20 companies, including two of the big four banks, have entities in well-known tax havens such as the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, the British Virgin Islands and Bermuda.

News Corporation, Westfield and the Goodman Group were among the worst offenders, the group said, holding more than 50 entities in low-tax jurisdictions each. ]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/top-firms-tax-haven-links-revealed-20130524-2k719.html#ixzz2URKVpRh1

Socrates
Guest
BK You missed the best article of the day, by Andrew McLeod. [The old ”worker versus boss” divide that historically characterised the two parties no longer seems to be the divide on the social issues of the day. It is not just asylum where this can be seen. Take gay marriage. Under a liberalist philosophical tradition there would be sympathy for gay marriage. Under a conservative political tradition there would not. So what of the Liberal Party? The current conservative-leaning leadership has the Liberal Party objecting to gay marriage, even though many so-called ”wets” from a liberal philosophical tradition would… Read more »
Meguire Bob
Guest

sreve777

i wouldnt worry too much about the newsltd polling

we are heading for newspoll weekend

they will need to talk up the struggling incompetent coalition

BK
Guest

And from the Land of the Free –

Some cartoons on Apple’s taxation “arrangements”.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/26/cartoons-of-the-day-apple-taxes/
MUST READ! Paul Krugman on the closed mindedness of conservatives. Totally apposite for Australia.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/25/the-closing-of-the-conservative-mind/
Repug public spiritedness.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/26/tom-coburn-disaster-relief_n_3339498.html
Adam Goodes made the Huffington Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/26/adam-goodes-racism_n_3339704.html

BK
Guest

Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
What a waste of time! We will have copper undere] Abbott.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-27/jake-sturmer-yarn-for-monday/4713788
And much, much further than Abbott’s thought bubble.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/ofarrell-out-to-trump-pm-on-sports-betting-20130526-2n5e4.html
Ross Gittins has a crack at Hockey. Just check out the last sentence.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/hockey-fails-his-own-honesty-test-20130526-2n54o.html
Today is Pell day at the inquiry. Bring it on!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/pell-camp-offensive-in-letter-reply-20130526-2n5ar.html
A rather sombre contribution from Alan Moir.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Pat Campbell on the possible 12000 APS jobs to go under Abbott.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
David Rowe has PMJG as a steward at the races. There must be some significance to the detail in the bum of Abbott’s horse!
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

Steve777
Guest

GWV @ 786: 800 votes, margin of error = 3.5%. Possibly a rogue or perhaps there is some issue in Queensland.

Steve777
Guest

Boerwar @760

Was it Gough who asked Margaret whether the earth moved for her too, dear during a big earthquake in China?

Gough said no such thing. The quote comes from a cartoon in one of our major dailies (the Australian?) immediately after the event in 1976. I don’t remember who the cartoonist was. It was criticised (quite rightly) at the time for its very poor taste in the face of what was even from first reports an enormous disaster.

crikey whitey
Guest

Zoomster and Puff

Excuse me. Sudden influx of visitors.

Thanks. Ginger Up!

briefly
Guest
773 AussieAchmed We can get results – great results – but it will take time. At the risk of repeating myself, we need to do these things: Support private disposable incomes and employment, especially among the 4/5 of the population on around average incomes or less; Re-boot both direct and indirect taxation to maintain forward fiscal stability; Reform company tax at the same time; Re-orient the private economy away from reliance on consumption and towards diversified exports; Manage the currency down so that increased AUD export income flows offset the drag on incomes from import price increases, protecting employment and… Read more »
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

frednk
You are SA? Do you want the SA Knees up email?

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

Emails for the SA Chapter Queens Birthday Weekend Knees Up were just sent out. If you want to come and don’t get an email, contact me by email address ajaxstamp at hotmail dot com.

Fran Barlow
Guest

And equally interesting is that the other word you used — abrogate — shares this history, almost as an antonym. (“ab” + “rogare” rather than “ad” + “rogare”) — almost “unpropose” if there were such a word.

frednk
Guest
Fran Barlow
Guest

BW

[Thanks for note on arrogate. Correct.]

Not a problem. The word ‘arrogate’ has a fascinating etymology — a rollicking jaunt through proposals, and beseeching of the gods, words for being direct and straight and even kingly, and of course, lately, being overbearing and recklessly indifferent to others.

Who would imagine so much nuance could be packed into one word stem over a couple of thousand years? 😉

shellbell
Guest

Hard to reconcile Galaxy (QLD) with a 54-46 nationwide last week unless ALP is doing well in Vic and SA (assuming NSW is crapola)

briefly
Guest

cheers boerwar…see you soon!

confessions
Guest

[Primary Votes: ALP 28 (-5) ]

Another poll where the ‘others’ benefit.
#whatever

silmaj
Guest

It’s a little unfair to say that ( South Australians are wanting to be parasitic) because of a potential sub build. SA has always been one of the better locations for manufacture because of its centrality. And (I can’t quote the figures )was up in the ranks as a contributor to GDP.

briefly
Guest

Galaxy Poll… ouch!!!

rummel
Guest

[GhostWhoVotes
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:26 pm | PERMALINK
Galaxy Poll QLD Federal – 22-23 May, 800 voters

Two Party Preferred: ALP 41 (-4) L/NP 59 (+4)]

Wow,

briefly
Guest

If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.

I worried that I haven’t got that many numbers

GhostWhoVotes
Guest

Galaxy Poll QLD Federal – 22-23 May, 800 voters

Two Party Preferred: ALP 41 (-4) L/NP 59 (+4)
Primary Votes: ALP 28 (-5) L/NP 46 (0)

zoomster
Guest

[If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.]

I prefer to count Liberals – I’m a slave to tradition…

confessions
Guest

Night Boerwar.

[ If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.]

Or Whitlam’s and Gillard’s achievements.

Gary
Guest

[And miss all the fun of the current spewing forth of posts I have created?]
Which is really what it’s all about for ML. No real conviction, just stirring.

frednk
Guest

[ Institute of Public Affairs
..
]
We could save a few billion and get a few more young workers by allowing to work those keen little vegemites that risked their lives to get here.

Boerwar
Guest

Good night all. If you have trouble getting to sleep you could always try counting Abbott’s lies.

zoomster
Guest

deblonay

ah, easy fix – use plastic bottles.

Boerwar
Guest

AA

‘Australia’s ageing population means the generous welfare safety net provided to current generations will be simply unsustainable in the future. As the Intergenerational Report produced by the federal Treasury shows, there were 7.5 workers in the economy for every non-worker aged over 65 in 1970. In 2010 that figure was 5. In 2050 it will be 2.7. Government spending that might have made sense in 1970 would cripple the economy in 2050. Change is inevitable.’

Another reason why will never end up spending $38 billion on 12 submarines.

Boerwar
Guest

frednk

‘Well that is the question, is defence about defence or the economy.’

In our neck of the woods, if we don’t have defence we don’t have the economy. If we piss away four times more on a submarine than we need to we will have neither a defence nor an economy.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

from the Institute of Public Affairs

Australia’s ageing population means the generous welfare safety net provided to current generations will be simply unsustainable in the future. As the Intergenerational Report produced by the federal Treasury shows, there were 7.5 workers in the economy for every non-worker aged over 65 in 1970. In 2010 that figure was 5. In 2050 it will be 2.7. Government spending that might have made sense in 1970 would cripple the economy in 2050. Change is inevitable.
==================================================
And among the main policies of Abbott is to reduce superannuation imposing a huge “pension” bill on future generations

Boerwar
Guest

Did you know that Lara’s hair in Pasternak’s ‘Dr Zhivago’ is black?

frednk
Guest

[Boerwar
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:10 pm | Permalink
..’

The reality is that it is destroying our defences with its wasteful ways.]

Well that is the question, is defence about defence or the economy. I think any high ranking US official would tell you it’s about the economy, but it only works if you build you own shit to blow up. Sending the money overseas does not help.

Boerwar
Guest

briefly
I am definitely not holding my breath on that little lot. As the educationists like to say it looks as if we are in for a few years of ‘learning by doing’ or, as you point out, ‘learning to do with less’.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry
briefly 765 I know I’m no economic guru. For me there are a couple of simple things that could done. The MRRT revenue be quarantined to reduce debt and the same with the Medibank revenue rather than sell it off. Aust needs to be working towards reducing the gross and net debt to reduce interest paid and maintain our 3 x Triple A ratings which enable Aust to borrow at lower interest rates. A surplus should be a lower priority. Its a facilicy anyway, surplus while having debt is just money that should have been spent on the people or… Read more »
Boerwar
Guest

Tasmania has a goji berry economy and is trying to channel the Dalai Lama. Adelaide has got a submarine economy and is trying to drag us all underwater.

Thank doG for the ACT is all I can say.

frednk
Guest

Russell Edwards ‏@Grumpyoleman55 6h

@MikeCarlton01 @GreenJ @theboltreport10 …as opposed to Diesel Fuel Subsidies which are…

frednk
Guest

Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 6h

The Rinehart Cowboy rides again ! RT @GreenJ @theboltreport10: Subsidies for car makers are money for unions.

confessions
Guest

Surprised Fraser hasn’t been the Liberal-of-the-day to give his views on Whitlam. Obviously Howard was up for the gig, unsurprisingly.

Boerwar
Guest

frenk

‘I’m sure there are a few in South Australia that do not agree.’

Well, if we stopped wasting tens of billions on building submarines in Adelaide I would be inclined to say to them, ‘Fair enough’. Of course South Australians want to parasitise the rest of Australia. ‘The Weekend Australian’ even has an ad in it for ‘South Australia, the Defence State.’

The reality is that it is destroying our defences with its wasteful ways.

briefly
Guest

752
Boerwar
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

I won’t hold my breath, bw… 🙂

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