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State Redistributions

Jun 17, 2013

New South Wales draft state redistribution

Proposed new state electoral boundaries for New South Wales create a new inner-city seat at the expense of one in the state's south.

A proposal for a redistribution of New South Wales’ state electoral boundaries has been published, the major change being that the metropolitan area gains a seat at the expense of the rest of the state. The new seat has been created in the inner city, with Marrickville divided between the new seats of Newtown in the east and Summer Hill in the west. Considerable rearrangement in the outer inland suburbs causes Menai, Smithfield and Toongabbie to be respectively renamed Holsworthy, Prospect and Seven Hills.

The abolition of a rural electorate has been achieved by merging Burrinjuck and Murrumbidgee into Cootamundra. Murrumbidgee’s western half is absorbed by Murray, the name of which changes from Murray-Darling to register the transfer of the state’s north-western corner by Barwon. The eastern part of Burrinjuck is absorbed by Goulburn. Part of Goulburn’s territory is in turn absorbed by Wollondilly, with knock-on effects in Sydney’s outer south-west.

Maps of the proposed boundaries can be viewed here. The redistribution commissioners will now receive suggestions and objections to the proposals until July 17.

UPDATE: A proposal for a redistribution of New South Wales’ state electoral boundaries has been published, the major change being that the metropolitan area gains a seat at the expense of the rest of the state. The new seat has been created in the inner city, with Marrickville divided between the new seats of Newtown in the east and Summer Hill in the west. Considerable rearrangement in the outer inland suburbs causes Menai, Smithfield and Toongabbie to be respectively renamed Holsworthy, Prospect and Seven Hills.

The abolition of a rural electorate has been achieved by merging Burrinjuck and Murrumbidgee into Cootamundra. Murrumbidgee’s western half is absorbed by Murray, the name of which changes from Murray-Darling to register the transfer of the state’s north-western corner by Barwon. The eastern part of Burrinjuck is absorbed by Goulburn. Part of Goulburn’s territory is in turn absorbed by Wollondilly, with knock-on effects in Sydney’s outer south-west.

Maps of the proposed boundaries can be viewed here. The redistribution commissioners will now receive suggestions and objections to the proposals until July 17.

UPDATE: Antony Green has published his estimated margins. The change from Toongabbie to Seven Hills has been particularly significant, creating a seat with a notional Liberal margin of 8.5% (through the absorption of Northmead and Winston Hills from Baulkham Hills) from one that had been safe enough for Labor that Nathan Rees was able to retain it in the 2011 landslide. The Liberals have been strengthened in Campbelltown, Oatley and Wollondilly, but Holsworthy is weaker for the Liberals than Menai which it replaces – and of course there is now one less conservative electorate in the country and one extra “left” electorate in the city.

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20 comments

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Antony GREEN
Guest

I’ve prepared a publication on the redistribution for the NSW Parliamntary Library on the redistribution. All the gory detail here http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/publications.nsf/key/2013NSWRedistribution:AnalysisofDraftElectoralBoundaries

Graeme
Guest

So in party terms the Nats are the only obvious loser from this? Fair enough – it’s perverse that they currently hold almost as many seats as the ALP, given their respective vote shares, bases etc.

mexicanbeemer
Guest

Mod Lib

The comment wasn’t based on current polls but for as long as i can recall Vietnamese Australians have seemed to be solid ALP.

The suburbs of Richmond and Springvale which have large Vietnamese populations and both have been very solid for the ALP, although Richmond has always been solid ALP.

Due to recent state elections the voting pattens within the Vietnamese community seem to be changing.

Utopia
Guest
[Yet the Vietnamese have more the most part being solid ALP voters due in part to the Liberals letting out the odd anti Asian comment.] IS this correct? My Vietnamese contacts, and there are many, seem to pretty solidly vote Liberal, largely on the history of Fraser helping Vietnamese refugees in the late 70s. That is the kind of thing someone doesn’t forget, and something a parent would likely pass on to children! Not saying it is universal, of course, but from my limited circle of friends and colleagues it seems the majority of Vietnamese vote Liberal. Does anyone know… Read more »
edward o
Guest
To my namesake Mr Boyce, Thank you, that does make of course make sense, but there are other Districts who share the name with the council but don’t have borders that are particularly similar. Admittedly, in these cases, the seat is bigger than and contains the majority of the council which is different. In the rental belt, people don’t identify as much with their councils and I’d wager a lot of people ’round here don’t know what council they’re in. Population growth in the Inner West might lead to more carving up in a few redistributions time and it wouldn’t… Read more »
meher baba
Guest
Not long ago, a Chinese community leader in Sydney told me that the Chinese community used to largely vote Labor because they didn’t trust the Libs on issues of race. But, the departure of Howard from the political scene has made them much more inclined to vote Liberal: given that the political values of the Liberal Party are far closer than those of Labor to the views of your typical Chinese small business person. The Rudd factor kept a lot of the Chinese vote with Labor in 2007, but they then deserted in 2010. Rudd would bring them back but,… Read more »
liyana
Guest

Apparently ALP translates in Chinese to something like ‘communists’ while the Liberal party translates to ‘Freedom’, so if the ALP are serious about attracting the multicultural vote they may want to look into that..

My Chinese teacher told me that BTW

Generally I think the votes of most people from Non English speaking backgrounds are determined by the same factors that influence the votes of people of English speaking background. ie family, friends, money and the local media.

dovif
Guest

mexicanbeemer

Not anymore, when places like fairfield council turns blue, the Vietnemese is no longer safe ALP constituency

mexicanbeemer
Guest

meher baba

Interesting you write that, Whitlam apparently was nervous about the Vietnamese for he imaged that they might be attached to the Liberals due to anti communism feeling, focus on family and being active small business owners.

Yet the Vietnamese have more the most part being solid ALP voters due in part to the Liberals letting out the odd anti Asian comment.

meher baba
Guest
Vale Burrinjuck: for several decades an isolated Labor stronghold thanks to some demographic peculiarities and the efforts of the redoubtable Sheahan family. I’m sad to see these old NSW rural electorates pulled apart and the pieces welded together in ever-larger portions. I’m old enough to feel a seismic shift in Australisn society over my lifetime: the bush still used to matter when I was young. Nowadays, the demographic focus is increasingly centered on the burgeoning Chinese, Indian and Middle Eastern populations of inner and western Sydney and inner, western and northern Melbourne. It has certainly improved the type of food… Read more »
Edward Boyce
Guest

edward o,

I suspect the reason for Marrickville’s name change is because the redistribution has broken the connection to the local council of that name. Previously Marrickville LGA mostly overlapped the district of Marrickville, but now the LGA is split between the proposed districts of Newtown, Summer Hill and Heffron. The commission may have been worried about confusion when no district takes in the majority of Marrickville LGA, so they renamed the district for a locality that isn’t also the name of a council.

liyana
Guest

Thanks William, that’s much clearer.

liyana
Guest

Hard to tell on that map; Is Green Square, included in Newtown?

Other than that, Newtown looks like it might be a nice prospect for the Greens.

Utopia
Guest

If I am not mistaken, AG’s pendulum shows that if the ALP win a 10% swing at the next election we will be left with 55 LNP seats to 34 ALP seats.

That means a 10% swing still leaves the LNP with a hefty margin of 17 seats!
(when you include the 4 “others” with the opposition).

Yikes

edward o
Guest

Surely the ALP could win Seven Hills at a non-disastrous election though, as far off as one of those might seem.

shellbell
Guest

I lived in Summer Hill at the time of the 1999 State election. Gee the area was safe Labor in those days.

Keith Mason QC, from Solicitor General of NSW and Court of Appel president sat on the redistibution committee. Told me how much he enjoyed the work

edward o
Guest

What I mean is, Marrickville is no less representative of the redrawn seat than Drummoyne (the suburb) is of Drummoyne (the seat).

edward o
Guest
Sensible redistribution. Wrt the inner city shuffling, Redfern (where I live) is increasingly more associated with the Inner West covered by the proposed Newtown than the Botany Bay suburbs (especially because of the train links), so the new seat is well-located and suitably named. Not wild about renaming the cut-up Marrickville to Summer Hill, though. Marrickville is a much-better-known name. Sure, it’s now in the south-east corner of the electorate, but it still contributes a large amount of the area and population of the proposed Summer Hill. I reckon the suburbs in the proposed Summer Hill are a better fit… Read more »
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