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Seat of the week: Griffith (plus ReachTEL polling)

Brisbane's inner south again finds itself represented by a Prime Minister after another absorbing week in federal politics.

First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …

Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.

When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.

Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.

The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.

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1189 comments

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canasta76
Guest

Alias
Who in hell do you think you are giving anyone on this blog a certain time to get over something,I would have thought that would be up to the moderator and while on the subject I didnt hear you calling on TP or bemused to do the same over the past three years of continuous carping.

bemused
Guest

Write-in for Gillard@1096

Distressed by the corruption of the modern Labor Party?

Disgusted by the treatment of Julia?

Determined not to let white-anting and treachery be rewarded?

DON’T GET ANGRY, GET EVEN!

YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE!

Get rid of this prostitution of the Labor movement without soiling your hands by voting Liberal

Write 1 Gillard, J. on your House of Representatives ballot and

1. The Gillard Team on the Senate paper

TOGETHER WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE

A grass roots social media campaign is about to start!

I hope no-one falls for this bunch of morons and renders their votes informal.

Kinkajou
Guest

see….sacking the leadership works….predicting ashes win

Kinkajou
Guest

the dees almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, wallabies up, rudd up things are turning

Marrickville Mauler
Guest

#1096 I assume is a Menzies House troll attempting to get invalid Left votes. No real Gillard supporter would be anything like that stupid.

Meanwhile Sarah R # 1092 never mind the italics, great post

bemused
Guest

Boerwar@990

alias

‘I’m sure after all his months musing on the backbench, Rudd has this in hand’

Rudd did not muse on the backbench. He worked long and hard to destroy a Labor Prime Minister and undermine a Labor Government.

Oh yes, it was his insidious mind control.

It was he who caused Gillard to make her many mistakes culminating in that ghastly knitting photo shoot which, according to reports, was the last straw for some in caucus.

Grow a brain Boerwar and put it to use.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

I don’t get how Abbott is so terrible at debate. Isn’t he well educated, been a minister of govt and now LOTO for some time.

Sean Tisme
Guest

This is not Fair!!!

Some washed up has-been everyone has forgotten about how bad they were taking over from the other has-been Gillard!!

This is Bullsheet@

izatso?
Guest

in the Python clip, bemused is the feller traipsing along behind king rudd, aaaaah, clippety clop with the cocoanut halves, clippety cloppety clip…..
…. doing a fab job in his own mind, yet he’s just a bit player in a farce…..

bemused
Guest

the spectator@960

boerwar = one great big bore. mate get over it Gillard is gone why she was politically inept. in this game you do actually need to win votes.

Absolutely correct!

I marvel at the concept of a political party that would be content to lose elections badly, have it’s achievements trashed and it’s future plans foiled.

Yet this seems to be what some advocate.

Go join the Greens.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

I think theres a couple of pints for Labor in the debate(s)

sprocket_
Guest
bemused
Guest

Boerwar@926

shellbell
The only thing Combet could not resolve was a sociopath. They are unresolvable.

Yes, I have been observing your behaviour.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

[ELECTION 2013
Kevin Rudd risks row with Indonesia]

[Rudd refuses to back down in asylum row]

Anybody see how Rudd has changed the game on this now. They are now fighting on his territory…Foreign Affairs.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

[My greater anger is reserved for those who destroyed in 2010 what could have been a political partnership of two people who were complementary in their skills.]

I made a suggestion quite some time ago as to how Gillard could get herself into the positive side of the ledger and recover Labor’s fortunes. Since the public had turned against her and Labor but not Rudd it would have been very clever to hold him close, have him with her often working together….in other words getting the reflection of Rudd’s popularity. This they could have done and would have worked, though many would have hated it as it put Rudd to much in the light. So they went where they did, and instead tried to character assassinate him time after time… a very silly tactic.

bemused
Guest

Player One@887

Wanting the ALP to have a credible leader, capable of making Labor at least competitive, has nothing to do with grief and longing, and a lot more to to with the frequently inept performance of the then leader.


Agree 100%

Who do you suggest?

Caucus made the correct move – Rudd.

He is already putting runs on the board.

bemused
Guest

guytaur@885

bemused

I think you do not understand the truly abysmal performance of the MSM.

Rudd will do much better but its still the same MSM and they will continue to promote the LNP so be prepared for that.

Other than in 1972 when sections of the media went for Whitlam, I have never known the media to be other than anti-Labor.

That’s the ground rules and we have to get on and play on that unequal playing field.

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

[Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM

Wow!]

And Rudd’s return to leadership and battles with Abbott would not have sunk in with many out there.

There will be lots of reticence in the public to switch sides given a lack of confidence in the Labor machine. Once Rudd gets his cabinet together and they all out there doing their thing it will make life very difficult for the Libs.

Fil R
Guest

Hi Thomas Paine re 1151

I certainly believe you’re perfectly entitled – like Boerwar – to your opinion, and to express it.

What I was referring to was – in my opinion – how you and now Boerwar simply repeat the same points over and over, and in effect claim opinion to be proven fact.

I’ve made no secret that I preferred Rudd to Gillard, but I try not to be so blinded by prejudice so that I can’t recognise the respective weaknesses and strengths of either.

My greater anger is reserved for those who destroyed in 2010 what could have been a political partnership of two people who were complementary in their skills.

F

jaundiced view
Guest

Fran Barlow

Psephos is serial liar on this. I’m surprised anyone would use him, given his intra-factional agenda as an authority on anything. He has form. I gave the true legal position earlier. If you missed it just ask

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