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I have joined Mark the Ballot, Pottinger and Kevin Bonham in “implementing a discontinuity”, which in BludgerTrack’s case means re-comencing the model from scratch. Previously the BludgerTrack 2013 series was a single model utilising the full gamut of polling information since the 2010 election to plot out the parties’ fortunes over time. However, to continue would have meant imputing utility to late Gillard polling in determining the present situation, where plainly there is none. The charts on the sidebar represent a continuation of the old model, but it’s only there for show – the results in the tables above them are derived entirely from the polls conducted since last Wednesday (ReachTEL, Galaxy, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan). The sidebar charts will start representing the new regime when there is sufficient data to get a new model rolling which uses the return of Kevin Rudd as its year zero.

I have also started again with my relative state result calculations, as the return of Rudd has changed the game here just as much as with respect to the national result. Here things are particularly dicey at present, as I have only the Morgan SMS poll and ReachTEL breakdowns to go on. This is particularly a problem for Tasmania, so I am continuing to use Gillard era data there to determine the state’s deviation from the national result. This means the calculation continues to be dominated by the 2000+ sample ReachTEL poll of a few weeks ago (remembering that this is used to determine deviation from the national result, so Labor’s two-party result in Tasmania is still improved on last week’s, although the situation on the seat projection hasn’t changed).

Another development is that the announcements by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott that they will not contest the election has caused me to junk the allocation of five seats as “not projected”. New England and Lyne will henceforth be treated as Nationals seats, while Melbourne, Denison and Kennedy will be credited to the incumbents unless and until published polling emerges which says differently. On a not entirely related note, it’s also interesting to observe that BludgerTrack finds the air going out of the “others” balloon which had been inflating since the start of the year, with disaffected Labor supporters who had been parking their votes somewhere (anywhere) else evidently having returned to the fold.

It’s a shame I can’t be more confident about the state breakdowns, because the results are many different varieties of interesting. Firstly, the dramatic difference between Victoria on the one hand and New South Wales and Queensland on the other has vanished, with Labor recording near double-digit gains in the NRL states but up barely more than a point in Victoria. Secondly, I’ve got four different states where the two-party result is pretty much bang on 50-50. Finally, the projected final seat outcome, which would put Labor in a position to continue governing with the support of Andrew Wilkie and Adam Bandt from a minority of the two-party preferred vote, further demonstrates the point made by Possum that a substantial advantage accrues to the party which seizes the middle ground in Queensland. So long as Julia Gillard was prime minister, that clearly wasn’t going to be Labor.

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3347 comments

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Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

I am in hospitsl. I had my gallbladder removed. I told the nurses i named my gallstone Tony Aboott. That got a good lsugh. One said she wished the rah TA was that easy to remove.

Hilary Farquhar
Guest

I have had so many phone calls wanting to ask my opinion for these polls, only to be told that if I’m over a certain age I don’t qualify. The last was from News Corp yesterday, but I am over 49 so I don’t qualify. How can these opinion polls claim to be a cross section when the age group isn’t? Turn 50 and you’re irrelevant. .

cud chewer
Guest

I think I’ll state the obvious but the socially unacceptable.

We live in a sad and uncivilized world. And what the polls tell us is how little political outcomes are governed by rational thought. God help us. Us being the human race.

ShowsOn
Guest

Kevin 13 Mofos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

jaundiced view
Guest

The NSW intervention doesn’t do it so far – not when these blokes aren’t enthusiastic. All the office bearers and systems stay. From AFR:

“Asked if the changes would stop the rise to power of a figure like Mr Obeid, long-term internal critic ­Rodney Cavalier said: “The answer is they don’t.”

“In a telling silence, party elder and NSW senator John Faulkner declined to comment on the changes.”

Rossmore
Guest

Your

Rossmore
Guest

TP 3334 thats a pretty near perfect illustration of the emptiness at the heart of the LNP soul. No guts, no passion, no soul, just the relentless pursuit of power at any price. You go my way I’ll go mine.

Spray
Guest

butt hurt? Think I’ve solved it. What do I win?

political animal
Guest

Don’t get too triumphalist too early, you boring Pain.

Rudd is not even ahead in the polling, let alone won the election. Tiny blip up from where Julia was. Julia would have beaten Abbott, Rudd. . .?

Spray
Guest

Ah, you’re there TP. So what does “b**t ***t” represent?

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

But it would have been instructive to leave Gillard in the job and the inevitable and record anihilation that would have come.

Abbott with Senate and HOR, ditching everything Labor had done the past 6 years and engraving her name in political history as Labor biggest mistake.

Spray
Guest

Can anyone help solve TP’s 3265?

T** **lli**** o* u**ng a* * b**a**e *uo **e s* b**t ***t ov** **l*la**s f**l*** is t*t*ll* st***d.

I’ve got as far as:

“The silliness of using an * because you are so b**t ***t over Gillard’s failing is totally stupid.”

It didn’t help that he spelt “you” and “Gillard” wrong, but hey, what would you expect?

Thomas. Paine.
Guest

Wow, just look at all the jilted Gillard supporters.

Now I understand where they are coming from.

If Gillard was to be remembered in a positive way, to have any sort of legacy they most ironically she needed to be dumped are replaced by somebody who could save the party. Else she would have been remember only for the knifing of a 1st term PM then taking Labor to destruction.

You people should be thanking Rudd for taking on the THANKLESS and near impossible task of leading Labor into an election and staving of a massive thrashing, and keep the Senate away from Abbott.

But I doubt very much you will thank Rudd for saving Gillard.

political animal
Guest

I have decided to not vote this year and pay the $20 fine.

Rossmore
Guest

On reflection, real social progress is only ever achieved by politician’s of Gillard’s or Keating’s or Whitlam’s substance. They all have left a policy legacy which is I think the best we can hope from our politicians, for ill or good.

They all eventually fell out with the public but in hindsight were proved right. Perhaps thats the price of progress – politicians prepared to be shot down and humiliated. The lesser politicians seem only focussed on power and maintaining it.

That’s why I’ll vote AlP at the next election., but with no joy or enthusiasm hopefully among the the ALP candidates there’s somewhere another Whitlam, Keating or Gillard in the making..

DisplayName
Guest

I think he’ll keep it staying in neutral.

Rossmore
Guest

Bemused … I always thought you were a style not substance kinda guy. 3329 confirms it.

political animal
Guest

And Rudd got a “massive” 2% bump in support and we have no idea if he will keep that.

bemused
Guest

Good night all.
Can’t stick around for all the head explosions in response. 👿

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