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BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Labor

The second batch of polling since Kevin Rudd's leadership takeover has been even more encouraging for Labor than the first, pushing them into the lead on both the BludgerTrack two-party vote and seat projection.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan this week have pushed Labor over the line into majority territory on both the seat projection and two-party preferred in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The outstanding fact of the present seat projection is that Labor continues to hold the ground where Queensland’s large clump of marginal seats is located. New state breakdowns from Newspoll and Morgan have helped iron out a few quirky results from last week, namely a four-seat loss for Labor in Victoria and a two-seat gain in Western Australia. The state projections in particular should begin to stabilise now that a deeper pool of post-leadership change data is becoming available.

UPDATE: AMR Research has a national online poll of 1107 which turns the tables on the Liberals by showing Labor 51-49 ahead on the present arrangement, but 57-43 behind if Malcolm Turnbull were leader. The primary votes are 42% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens. This is AMR Research’s second foray into national political polling, the first being a poll conducted in March was roughly in line with the polling trend of the time.

UPDATE 2: ReachTEL has published results of a union-commissioned poll of federal and state voting intention in Queensland, which at federal level has Labor on 40.8%, the Coalition on 44.2%, the Greens on 4.4%, Katter’s Australian Party on 3.9% and the Palmer United Party on 4.6%. Applying 2010 election preferences to this, with everyone other than Labor, the Coalition and the Greens condensed into “others”, returns a result of 52-48 to the Coalition, a swing of 3% which if uniform would net Labor six seats. The sample size for the poll was 1613. I’ve covered the state aspects of it as an update to my earlier Queensland Newspoll post.

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2439 comments

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shellbell
Guest

CTar1

David Eastman is just letting his legal stoushes bubble along.

http://citynews.com.au/2013/judge-steps-down-from-eastman-inquiry/

You have not made it in the ACT justice system unless Eastman has retained you (maybe multiple times),sacked you (maybe multiple times) or demanded that you disqualify yourself.

John
Guest
Hello there friends, Tony Abbott has done it again. He got Rudd sacked just prior to the 2010 election and now Gillard sacked just prior to this 2013 election. ALP has brought back what may well be the biggest traitor in Oz political history now, given he sabotaged the 2010 election campaign with deadly leaks and since then has been plotting to knife a woman who was our first female pm in the back to get the top job. She was his PM too. KR is the worst traitor ever seen in this country and against his own party and pm. ALP is an absolute joke. Even with an unprecedented massive honeymoon that anyone could have gotten realistically, ALP will be convincingly beaten. ALP has enthroned the one man in this world they hate the most. How desperate is that? A joke desperate. That much. The Rudd experiment is already showing cracks, soon to be the grand canyon, where the ALP will be lost forever within, perhaps. Tony Abbott is quite extraordinary and his demolition of the ALP yet again makes him the most successful opposition leader this country has ever seen in politics. True talent. He has not only got labor to sack a second pm but bring back the one man they hate most in the process. He has caused half or so of ALP’s cabinet to resign / retire. ALP policy is a complete shambolic mess. The ALP and NSW branch is in absolute tatters needing radical reconstructive surgery. KR is putting on a show and some are impressed hey! The ALP is nearly dead and on life support. The only thing keeping the ALP alive is that Tony Abbott and the coalition are yet to really send out their message loud and clear. It includes ridiculous debt and a deficit that would make Greece blush if we are honest. Complete dysfunction and chaos in a party seen in policy stuff ups like school halls, pink batts, mining tax, carbon tax and the list is endless. The KR circus is in town and dazzling many with bright lights. But now, soon, the lights will be put out and then KR and the ALP will be shown to be all hollow air and noise and nothing but complete chaos and dysfunction, and then voters incl last min and swing voters will romp home for the coalition. ALP has… Read more »
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

My Say,
I can write both highbrow and lowbrow depending on the audience. Some people need a literary 4×2 between the eyes before they get the understanding.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

briefly
A wonderful outcome, and I hope she goes on to have a happier life than she has had so far.

Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Guest
Puff, the Magic Dragon.

cw
I am not comparing life stories. I don’t know where you got that from. My life has nothing to do with it. Putting up with three years of Gillard kicking on PB and then being told to leave poor little ruddy alone after three weeks is a different matter.

Peter J. Nicol
Guest

Hmm – I am detecting a bit of arb on Bonner tween Sportsbet and Centrebet if anyone wants it.

There might be more elsewhere – Centrebet have coming quite a way today, it seems.

briefly
Guest

my say…you want the executive summary? The original document submitted to the Tribunal took two days to write and edit and covered a lot of ground.

I wonder how I can condense it?

K’s story is a triumph of both the human spirit and the law. While it contrasts with the sordid politics of refugees, the outcome shows this country is still a living symbol of hope-fulfilled.

K’s circumstances – as an innocent but disgraced and ostracised Tamil woman in Malaysia – were cruelly sad, her afflictions those of prejudice and poverty. And they were also intensely precarious right up until the moment a Tribunal decided – after a public hearing in Perth – that she should be “protected”.

The facts also illustrate two things: while bigotry still persists, the system here is not indifferent to it. For this, we should thank the High Court, which has ensured that great power can be availed by the meekest among us. In a way, the law has redeemed the fortitude and the perseverance of the humblest mother, here and now, in the 21st century.

ShowsOn
Guest

[Hi Shows]
HI MOFO!

bemused
Guest

Hi Shows

ShowsOn
Guest

HI MOFOS!

guytaur
Guest

Goodnight

daretotread
Guest

“we just need a policy flavour”

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Good night.

Sean I hope you dream of a 10 years Rudd dynasty

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Gary

Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

Thanks AA. In other words It’s BS.
————————————————-

yep, but don’t tell Sean Tsime …let him have a good nights sleep

Gary
Guest

Thanks AA. In other words It’s BS.

Rossmore
Guest

I suspect former PM JG will have no shortage of job offers from the likes of the UN and other international bodies. The world noticed that speech for what it was. A line in the sand against misogyny.

Strong UnionsStrongCountry
Guest
Strong UnionsStrongCountry

Gary….

The Labor Dirt spambot recycling a tweet with the message Labor 45 / Libs 55. Only the link pointed to this page..

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling

crikey whitey
Guest

2382
crikey whitey
Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

Puff.

Would you mind shutting up for one single moment.

You may think your life is tough.

And it may be.

You don’t even start in my category.

zoidlord
Guest

@Gary/2415

I think @Centre’s comments is sort of Sarcasm.

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