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Federal Election 2013

Jul 12, 2013

Seat of the week: Longman

Elected in 2010 at the age of 20, Wyatt Roy looked to be cruising to an easy second term as member for his seat on Brisbane's northern fringe. Now post-Ruddstoration opinion polling suggests he has a real fight on his hands.


Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.

Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.

Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.

The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.

Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.


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2,056 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Longman

  1. crikey whitey

    ‘His win in the ballot.. ahead of etc former etc was confirmed by the party’s state council,

    despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.

    Ain’t it amazing! The Boy Wonder. And remarkable insight from the famously sensitive Mal Brough.

    Maybe vets and seniors, even in their dotage, are awake up to having to pat the head and ruffle the hair of the baby boy.

  2. BK

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    The SMH has nothing of great import this morning with respect to federal politics. Before long they will have to start focusing on the paucity of solid policy from the Coalition.
    Laurie Oakes reckons the Libs are about to launch a very well funded advertising blitz against Rudd.
    A worthwhile read of a first hand experience of Advertiser journo Rex Jory (who I remember as a cadet covering grade cricket matches many, many years ago).
    If this is caused by the lithium batteries Boeing is in a shitload of trouble.
    Lenore Taylor on the battle of the stunt men.
    Cathy Wilcox on the elephant (not) in the room.
    Pat Campbell on privacy issues.
    Ron Tandberg reminds us of a Jeff Kennett pronouncement.

  3. frednk

    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    The betting seems to have consolidated:

    Average Best Odds Available:

    LNP $1.40

    ALP $3.10

    Don’t get too confident Bludgers, we are still behind but we have a contest 😎 ]

    Lets look at this rationally.

    A poll with all it’s problems gives a randomly selected person one slot, a betting market gives self selected loser as many slots as he/she desires.

    You consider the betting market a better guide to a future event that gives all, one slot?

    Batshit crazy.

  4. Meguire Bob

    Posted Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 6:49 am | PERMALINK
    Posted Friday, July 12, 2013 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    The betting seems to have consolidated:

    Average Best Odds Available:

    LNP $1.40

    ALP $3.10

    Don’t get too confident Bludgers, we are still behind but we have a contest

    Lets look at this rationally.

    A poll with all it’s problems gives a randomly selected person one slot, a betting market gives self selected loser as many slots as he/she desires.

    You consider the betting market a better guide to a future event that gives all, one slot?

    Betting market is worse than the opinion polls they can not get it right

    as with 2010 , when katter made his decision to support the coalition

    labor blew out to $6

  5. Meguire Bob

    The betting market it relying too heavily on the media influence opinion polling

    which are erratic

  6. OzPol Tragic

    Good morning, Dawn Patrol.

    Like you, BK, I found Oz newspapers wanting & Guardian usually uploads later in the morning.

    No cartoons, BUT More highbrow jokes: We didn’t realise what we were starting with a link to this original article How many surrealists does it take to screw in a light bulb? A fish: The most highbrow jokes in the world

    Ultra-highbrow humour has become the hottest thing on the internet

    As in these Bogan Bafflers: Why do Marx and Engels drink herbal tea? Because proper tea is theft.

    Two atoms are walking down the street. One atom says to the other: “Hey! I think I lost an electron!” The other says: “Are you sure?” “Yes, I’m positive!”

    Maybe by the time you’ve enjoyed them, I’ll have found something more political to post.

    BTW NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden says he will apply for asylum in Russia until ‘legal travel is permitted’

    Fugitive from US intelligence services emerges from hiding at Moscow airport and says he wants to be allowed to fly to Latin America

    More messing with UK & USA Security Agencies’ minds 👿 as more Internet search engines etc and telecoms, inc in Australia admit to mass (& massive) surveillance of just abut everyone with a phone or an online IT device.

    Eat your heart out, Big Brother!

  7. mari

    Glad there are a few comments, thought for a while PBers had dueled each other out 😀
    A magnificent day weather wise in Scotland today,26 Celsius
    Went to the Burn of Vat otherwise know as Rob Roy’s hideaway
    (Scotland’s Ned Kelly) a cave behind a waterfall, beautiful have seen it when cold and sleeting,so different today. The Scots and I are equally as amazed at this run of great weather

  8. Meguire Bob

    Lol mari

    good to see you enjoying your holiday

  9. frednk

    The Liberals really are in trouble, all their shit is going to come back and bite them when it matters.


    To add to the above, if slipper should be in court for comcar abuse, then Abbott really should be there facing charges for sins 10 times bigger.

    The Liberals are F***ed.

  10. BK

    Hi mari
    When are you due to return home?

  11. Meguire Bob


    Yes Abbott and his cronies were hoping there would be an election and they would be in government before all this come back up

  12. OzPol Tragic

    What do a British PM & a Qld Premier have in common?


    Pollie pay grabs while they are sacking thousands and gutting social services, of course!

  13. This little black duck


    Q: How many bludgers does it take to diss the Labor Party?

    A: All of them.

  14. OzPol Tragic

    BTW, if you missed last night’s exposee of the Telstar-USA spying scandal, here’s Bridie Jabour’s Guardian article:

    Telstra signed deal that would have allowed US spying
    Australian company agreed to allow US government to store information on communications between US and other countries

    [Telstra agreed to store information on communications between America and other countries in a contract with the US government which meant it could potentially spy on the contents.

    The agreement was signed in 2001 between the telecommunications company – which was at the time half-owned by the Australian government – and its subsidiary Reach, as well as the FBI and the US Department of Justice (DOJ).

    The agreement, first reported by Crikey who obtained the documents, gave the US government permission to store “domestic communications” – with the possibility of using them for spying – using the underwater cables owned by Reach]

  15. mari

    Meguire clever!

    24th August I fly in on the A380(which I love, so quiet ) after a few days in Dubai
    Just in time to vote 😀
    BTW Being taken to some standing stones tomorrow, which I havn’t seen before

    UPDATE was 28c today

  16. BK

    The election date still hasn’t been set but I’d say now it won’t be before you get back.

  17. OzPol Tragic


    Q: How many bludgers does it take to diss the Labor Party?

    A: All of them.]

    How can a typically Tory “joke” (ie not true) be “high-brow”?

    I certainly haven’t. Nor have a number of other Bludgers.

    Most of those who do are Tories/ Others pretending not to be. The louder they diss, the more smart-assed their comments, the more non-Labor I assume they are.

  18. Fran Barlow


    [As in these Bogan Bafflers: Why do Marx and Engels {did Proudhon} drink herbal tea? Because proper tea is theft.]

    Better …

  19. This little black duck

    Everyone has a go at Rudd OR Gillard OR Labor preselection OR Labor NSW Right.

  20. frednk

    This crook is the leaderof the opposition:

    phonytonyabbott ‏@phonytonyabbott 8h

    Just counting Office costs – Abbott spent $1,735,848.74 vs Gillard’s $834,467.65 – Abbott spent $901,381.09 MORE.

  21. Fran Barlow

    Hmmm 8.00 PB blues … will try a 3rd time then leave it for a while.

    Australia competed very well against a very skillful and determined England in the test last night. Well done both sides for offering an absorbing contest.

    It was a shame that the day was tainted by Aleem Dar’s howler in favour of Broad, which would have rewarded Agar with his third wicket, but IMO, Australia’s processes and on-field management were far sounder than they were in India, and that is far more important in the longer run than some umpire’s blunder.

    That said, the UDRS was designed to allow palpably poor decisions by umpires (rather than merely debatable ones) to be respectfully appealed and overturned. Inevitably, teams, including Australia, have begun playing the odds, raising speculative appeals in the hope that they won’t need that appeal later if it is struck down.

    Had they not raised that appeal against Bairstow, they’d have had Broad out and still had one up their sleeve.

    I support UDRS, but Aleem Dar needs to be moved on, IMO. It’s my impression that he is involved in more than the usual number of palpably poor decisions.

  22. Spider

    Re the betting markets. Hands up all those who honestly believe the multitude of betting agencies rake in the gazillions they do, if the majority of punters ‘get it right’?

  23. Steve Clements

    BK @ 2

    Wilcox nails it. Hopes she gets a gig on Talking Pictures.
    Oakes, et. al: Anything but Tony’s lack of policies. Unbelievable.

  24. Spider

    From Laurie Oaks, courtesy of BK. “A big-budget Coalition advertising campaign to be launched tomorrow will include a positive element – Tony Abbott talking about his team and his plan, and stressing strength and stability.

    The commercial is made with high production values. It has tested well with focus groups. Mr Abbott looks and sounds good”

    I have been following politics for years now, and Mr Abbott has never “looked good and sounded good”.

  25. OzPol Tragic

    G’day Mari

    [BTW Being taken to some standing stones tomorrow, which I havn’t seen before]

    Oooo! Lucky you. Do tell tomorrow! If they’re fairly newly listed/ excavated, I’m envious.

    On our 82 trip, we had a huge, wonderful map of Scotland with tiny icons for just about everything worth seeing – inc, to our Aussie amusement, every sandy beach! We were used to travelling (& camping) in Oz, where it’s often a very long drive through endless bush, or fields of grain and cotton, or spinifex & red-soil country, between areas & places we wanted to see; so touring GB in a little car, with oodles of time; getting used to countries (esp sparsely-populated rural Scotland) where hardly anything was more than an hour’s drive away, was “travel shock”.

    At the time, though we visited almost all of the Celtic Standing Stones, Crosses etc, at no time did we see another person there. Archeology, then, seemed to be Hadrian’s Wall (Vindolanda) Stonehenge (Avesbury Circle, still virtually unexcavated, was deserted) and stuff in museums. Nor did we see anyone dressed as a Roman, Viking, Celt – or anything resembling “fancy dress costume!

    Oh what a difference 28 years & Time Team made!

  26. Steve Clements

    BK, you were right about the cartoons re uterus(es?). Excruciating indeed. The last made me laugh. The first few made me wince.

  27. WeWantPaul

    Might not the betting markets be in a bit of a holding pattern, the true believers and the speculative punters already have labor at a better price than this and the more nervous punter still isn’t betting on Labor wanting to see if the Rudd shift is a short honeymoon or something that will be sustained.

    I think we are probably just behind Libs when the Rudd honeymoon washes down but can win in a good campaign. I’m not wasting hard earned highly taxed dollars on it though.

  28. BK

    The US issues that the cartoons confronted are a reminder to us of how lucky we are in Australia.

  29. WeWantPaul

    Just to stir the pot though I think a newly elected Rudd needs to employ mumble and Adam straight away. Mumble because he has been so consistently right for so long and Adam to the make mumble tea.

  30. frednk

    Posted Saturday, July 13, 2013 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    Just to stir the pot though I think a newly elected Rudd needs to employ mumble and Adam straight away. Mumble because he has been so consistently right for so long and Adam to the make mumble tea.]

    As long as Adam comes with duct tape firmly wrapped so he can’t say nothing and get them all confused with right wing rubbish.

  31. OzPol Tragic

    Meanwhile, in UK, Murdoch continues to confirm that When sorrows come, they come not single spies. But in battalions (Claudius, in Hamlet)

    Elveden: Duchess of Cambridge and Ian Brady among suspected victims
    Police to contact 419 people, including murderers, who are suspected victims of journalists paying officials for stories

    [The Duchess of Cambridge, Paul Gascoigne and the Yorkshire Ripper, Peter Sutcliffe, are being contacted by police to be told they are among 419 suspected victims of journalists allegedly paying public officials for stories, the Guardian understands.

    Other suspected victims being contacted by detectives in Operation Elveden include the family of 15-year-old Isobel Reilly, who died of a drugs overdose at a party in London, Zara Phillips, Ian Brady and Jon Venables – information that could act as a prelude to legal action.

    Those identified as suspected victims in Operation Elveden could be entitled to sue News UK, publishers of the Sun, the Times and the Sunday Times, for compensation for damage suffered as a result of stories allegedly being sold about them.]

    Although one of Paul Keating’s most famous political threats also seems apposite! Onya PK 👿

  32. WeWantPaul

    [As long as Adam comes with duct tape firmly wrapped so he can’t say nothing and get them all confused with right wing rubbish.]

    Seems a reasonable requirement to me.

  33. my say

    spider Oakes does not get it

    from the figures we see of abbott and the feed back

    most people will just turn to another station, make a milo of coffee

    or turn off the tv, kick the tv or mute they just don’t want to see him in their lounge rooms
    in fact I think it will put his numbers down further , lets see
    gee I think I may tweet that to laurie

  34. Meguire Bob

    Laurie Oakes is foolish the coalition attacks will shows more lies from the coalition

    1) It was the coalition under Turnbull who said the pacific solution was no longer needed, and supported rudd.

    2) Robb said in an interview he and Abbott would resign if they did not bring in an price on carbon (though an emts)

    3) The direct action will have a expense carbon price/tax implemented in it

    4) Abbott wants to go back to the Howard golden ages, which was filled with leadership tension , between howard and Costello

  35. victoria

    Morning all

    Before I head out for the monring, heard radio news break that Rudd has engaged his son Nicholas in a role connected with the campaign. I did not hear properly, soI could even be wrong about that.

    Also Fwiw, a close connection of mine, is working with the Libs in Melbourne. Lib MP has told my connection they are confident that their campaign painting Rudd in a bad light will work. Does not appear they will be dumping Abbott anytime soon.

    Talk later bludgers.

  36. zoidlord

    Morning all, seems Asbygate is still alive and kicking especially on twitter it seems.

  37. my say

    Tony Abbott,

    You probably get a lot of letters from both admirers and those seeking to criticise every facet of your existence. I am one of the latter. You might recall I’ve written to you before. Last time I wrote I told you about how concerned I was that you weren’t getting proper scrutiny in the mainstream media. Thankfully, since the recent change in ALP leadership, the media seem to have moved past their obsession with Julia Gillard. And in want of something else to write about, some of the more scrupulous journalists are taking some interest in your plans for the country and your behavior in trying to achieve your ambition to be the next blue-tie-wearing Prime Minister of Australia.

    The introduction of the Guardian’s local edition has helped this happy scenario

    read more


  38. my say

    vicy that has been the case for some time
    re KR son
    there was a story how his son was running his local campaign
    may be three months ago , I saw footage of him putting up something some where,

    suppose the usual will have a field day

  39. Meguire Bob

    Turnbull is also upstaging Abbott in telling more lies

  40. my say

    I quite enjoyed tweeting laurie oaks lyn linking
    re abbott twitter is a great peoples took,, to tell it like it is,

    laurie is in the old generation, where they think what they write will be hunky dory

    now we can let them know we disagree

    its fun and great to be able to tell them what u think
    in a very nice way,

    told oakes I had no intention of letting abbott in to my lounge room would change channels,

  41. my say

    peoples took,, / tool

  42. Meguire Bob

    my say

    Laurie Oaks is ok , but sometimes he does follow the pro coalition media mantra a bit too much

  43. my say


    ============================================================good to see this story written , hope it gets lot of re tweets
    so if your a tweeter please re tweet

  44. my say

    and this tweet link

    Lynlinking ‏@lynlinking 24m
    What Happened With The NBN This Week
    by Luke Hopewell trash talk started Its no secret Turnbull dislikes Mike Quigley http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2013/04/what-happened-with-the-nbn-this-week-99/

    Collapse Reply

  45. my say

    u rekon bob

    ==================remember 2010

  46. zoomster

    Received a list of talking points yesterday with ‘if you’re asked this, answer by saying…’ — you’ll never guess whose office they came from….

    Whilst on the topic, I’m constantly bewildered by the lack of media knowledge evidenced by media releases from both sides.

    One I looked at yesterday was three pages long. It repeated the same information a number of times and thanked so many people I was expecting to see ‘and my mum’ in there somewhere.

    Then they wonder why ‘the message doesn’t get out’.

    *For those Ruddistas waiting to jump on me with ‘look, she’s dissing the government!’ — the Other Side is equally guilty.


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