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Newspoll: 56-44 to Liberal in South Australia

Eight months out from the election, the latest state Newspoll result for South Australia suggests the tide is going out on the Labor government, despite the popularity of the Premier.

James J relates that Newspoll’s April-June quarter result of state voting intention in South Australia has the Liberals’ two-party lead up from 54-46 to 56-44, from primary votes of 32% for Labor, 44% for the Liberals (plus 1% for the Nationals) and 10% for the Greens. Jay Weatherill is up a point on both approval and disapproval to 47% and 35%, while Steven Marshall is up four to 41% and up one to 20%. Weatherill’s lead as preferred premier shifts from 42-27 to 41-30.

UPDATE: Tables from GhostWhoVotes.

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23 comments

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Socrates
Guest

Given that I haven’t even seen yet who were the education department public servants named in the report, the mother is correct – it is being covered up. Why are they entitled to anonymity, if they have been found by an independent inquiry to be at fault?

Diogenes
Guest

The abuse whistleblower mum is definitely Weatherlls Chantelois. She’s got the media on side and she’s on a winner with the public and she’s very very angry.

Rational Leftist
Guest

Just to clarify: post 19 wasn’t meant to imply the government can save itself but, rather, it can contain any rage and make the loss mild.

Rational Leftist
Guest
Also, on the economy, there are actually a few bright sparks on the horizon. In the long term, the SA economy will actually be stronger. The growth is in retail and hospitality (which is actually a long term industry) and tech industries. In the short term, there will be pain though. Too many eggs were put into mining without contingency and we’re still completely dependent on auto jobs staying. Time to ween off those industries and invest in ones that actually are in increasing demand. The services industry is a staying one and reflects a consumerist economy – which is… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest
Agree on the sex abuse scandal. What makes matters worse (and this wasn’t really his fault) was he was on vacation when the latest news broke, making him look aloof. I confess certain elements of the media have been actively playing it up but Weatherill has not handled this well at all. What he needs to do is come out on the front foot over this and stop looking like he’s trying to sweep it up under the rug. Among other things, he should: 1) Announce some serious head rolling over this. The Government are trying to find savings by… Read more »
Socrates
Guest

I would also agree the education abuse scandal has damaged Weatherall. As Minister if he did not know he was at fault. If he did know and the staffer took the fall for him, as seems obviously the case, then it looks worse. It was a dumb decision, and makes him look untrustworthy. As usual in the SA public service, the first reaction is to hide evidence of incompetence, rather than hold the incompetent accountable. The hiding, when revealed, does more damage than the incompetence itself.

Diogenes
Guest

[
Is Weatherill suffering from the perception that he was very close to Julia Gillard?

No]

As usual I agree with Carey. Weatherill is getting caned by a piss weak response to child abuse when he was Education Minister.

Diogenes
Guest

Labor gorn in SA for no particularly good reason other than its time and there has only been bad news in SA since Taylor Walker did his knee.

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Is Weatherill suffering from the perception that he was very close to Julia Gillard?]

No

gloryconsequence
Guest

Unsurprising result. I do not expect us to win.

Socrates
Guest
I find this result entirely understandable in the context of the SA State economy (in recession for nine months now) and budget (cut severely in 2012). It was not the government’s fault the BHPB pulled the pin on Olympic Dam, and it is this decision, not Holden fears, that has knocked the stuffing out of employment in Adelaide. that being said, the governmetn ahs really strugggled to work out what to do next, other than raise taxes and cut spending. end result: economy doing no better than austerity-hit Europe, and popularity going south fast. I think this has little to… Read more »
Evan Parsons
Guest

Is Weatherill suffering from the perception that he was very close to Julia Gillard?

Rational Leftist
Guest
Bird of paradox It’s possible that, after a well targeted and good campaign, Labor could limit the damage and the Libs get in on a razor thin seat margin but the general mood is it’s time for change. Also, the 2PP polling would need to be showing 52% or less towards the Libs, not between 54 and 56, as current polling tends to show for that kind of trick to work. Unless something happens to piss the voters right off or make Weatherill look completely dodgy (that whole school sex abuse scandal could possibly shape that way), It will be… Read more »
Bird of paradox
Guest

Considering Labor lost the 2pp vote in 2010, this would be something around a 4.4% swing. If it was uniform, Labor would lose 7 or 8 seats (ie: Liberal majority), but 2010 is a great example of a non-uniform swing. What’s the odds of Labor pulling that trick twice?

Independently Thinking
Guest
Independently Thinking
As Carey said, to be expected. However, it is clear Weatherill has been politically dumbstruck by the Education Department sex abuse scandal(s) which with a irritatingly persistent and bold whistleblower, various investigations and recriminations occurring, it is an issue that shows no sign of abating. The imminent potential loss of Holden which he declared last year ‘saved’ is another migraine even though credit must be given to the local Liberals who handed Labor a free kick by declaring that they towed the Federal Party line on abolishing subsidies for Holden. On top of this, local Mayor Glenn Docherty who is… Read more »
Rational Leftist
Guest

[So the punters can distinguish state and local.]

As I explained in the other thread, when there isn’t anger, they can.

If the feeling is that it’s time for something new, then it won’t have too much of an effect on the party’s standing at the other level of government.

However, if the mood is a “baseball bat” one, then the party’s name is poisonous on all levels until the offending factor has become ancient history.

Henry
Guest

So the punters can distinguish state and local.

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

#Newspoll SA Marshall LIB: Approve 41 (+4) Disapprove 20 (+1) #saparli #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll SA Preferred Premier: Weatherill ALP 41 (-1) Marshall LIB 30 (+3) #saparli #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 40s

The #Newspoll SA tables: http://bit.ly/13b4RRc #saparli #auspol

zoidlord
Guest

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

#Newspoll SA State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 44 (-2) LIB 56 (+2) #saparli #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll SA State Primary Votes: ALP 32 (-1) LIB 44 (+1) GRN 10 (0) #saparli #auspol

GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

#Newspoll SA Weatherill ALP: Approve 47 (+1) Disapprove 35 (+1) #saparli #auspol

Rational Leftist
Guest

[Is this really a new thread?]

It’s the SA State Newspoll thread. The 50-50 Nielsen thread is still the federal politics thread.

crikey whitey
Guest

Is this really a new thread?

I am going back.

Nicole for Boothby!

crikey whitey
Guest
GhostWhoVotes 107 James J Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink 105: Sorry, to Liberal 108 briefly Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:51 pm | Permalink [Meanwhile, if you have nothing better to do, you can read my speech on the 30th anniversary of the Victorian AIDS Council. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/speech Great speech, Psephos. Very well done and beautifully observed!! 109 William Bowe Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink New thread. 110 crikey whitey Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 11:54 pm | Permalink Zoidlord. Thanks.
Rational Leftist
Guest

Simple entropy really. The government will have been in power for 12 years next year. People start being itchy for a new direction and the incompetence of Olsen’s lot (some of whom are still on the Lib front bench) is an ancient memory.

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